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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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Just now, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

Just seeing my girlfriend off to the airport to travel back to the states and see her folks/sort some stuff out for 6/7 weeks. Likely to get called while she's in the air so exciting to see what kind of hell scape she gets to land in 

Me falling asleep watching Infowars in 2016 and your gf flying through an interdimensional portal the two big timeline shifters. Brown calling Gillian Duffy a bigoted woman the other major dimensional shift.

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A lot of despair around.

Bear in mind that Democrats were ready to hang themselves after Florida in the 2018 midterms, but it didn't reflect the national picture.

Trump won Ohio 52.1 to 43.5 last time, so by 8.6. According to the 538 polling average, Trump had a 0.8 polling lead there. He's currently up by 4 there, which would be a swing of 4.6 against him. That would not be enough to win him Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan. Trump is still losing the Upper Midwest.

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8 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

I'm going to bed. If Biden fucks this I'm launching an expedition to compromise Nate Silver and 538 to a permanent end.

Too many people were losing sight of the possibility that there was a strong pro-Biden bias in large portions of the US media that was likely to blind people to the possibility that the polling numbers they were reporting were not being weighted properly to fully quantify shy Trump support. Fingers crossed it still works out OK for the Democrats  in the end, but not surprised this has turned into a nailbiter.

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11 minutes ago, 101 said:

Boris will be delighted, no chance Biden was doing a trade deal if he ripped up the good Friday agreement. 

The House has to ratify a trade deal; they won’t if the GFI is jeopardised. 

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A Trump win goes down as probably the biggest polling fail in political history. 2016 was one thing, but that would surely render a host of specky nerds redundant.

Nonetheless I don't see much reason yet to completely lose hope in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, not to mention current signs that Arizona is leaning in Biden's favour.

Edited by AMMjag
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