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The US Presidential election prediction thread


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Just now, Bob Mahelp said:

Biden will win. The only question is if he takes Pennsylvania and Georgia in the process.

It would be handy if he did, it will effectively negate Trump's legal challenge. 

Nice to see you return to the forum after sunday...

 

Welcome back

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1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

Think I'll stick to live betting next election, it's where the money is if you time it right.

I went to bed around 3 this morning and Biden was around 9/5. Think a few of us on here called it a day. 

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3 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

Biden now moving to slight favourite in the exchanges. 1.73 vs Trumps 2.38

This is moving as fast as anything, given Trump was 1/3 earlier, so shows no-one has a scoob!

Especially if people are watching it through the filter of some clueless BBC talking heads rather than cutting out the middle man and following American sources. American Dems on twitter have been very upbeat for many hours since Arizona started to be declared as having flipped and have been explaining what would likely be unfolding subsequent to that, while some of the more honest Republicans have been quite glum. Not over till the fat lady sings but this latest turn of events shouldn't be the surprise that it appears to be for some.

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Guest Bob Mahelp
3 minutes ago, Bohemian said:

Nice to see you return to the forum after sunday...

 

Welcome back

I've never been away.

You need to improve your stalking techniques. 

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2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Think I'll stick to live betting next election, it's where the money is if you time it right.

There will be some folk with a hefty wedge locked in on Betfair by now, it's been like watching the tennis odds swinging to and fro, 4/1 on Biden and 5/2+ on Trump. 

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1 minute ago, Blootoon87 said:
3 minutes ago, UAE1929 said:
I went to bed around 3 this morning and Biden was around 9/5. Think a few of us on here called it a day. 

At 3.30am you could've got 16/5 on him.

Yeah, I looked at the odds, saw 3/1 on and assumed it was Biden. Had to do a double-take. 

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8 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

I dunno tbh.

I mean, I like Bernie and his politics, as do many Americans. But I can't shake the feeling that the same idiots who have learned f**k all from 2016 and are on the verge of one of the biggest minters in history would have absolutely ratfucked his campaign similar to Labour 2017-2019.

From my travels in the states ive found that some of the most vocal opponents of universal health care are surprisingly from the poorest areas, once saw a clapped out car with a sticker ‘if you think healthcare is expensive just wait until it’s free’. I looked and saw an average months health cover for a family in Florida is around the same as I pay in total tax and NI deductions per month. They’ve genuinely got no clue. 

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4 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

Looks like Biden is going to take arizona, wisconsin and michigan by slim margins.

Lot of people getting confused equating probability with margin of victory.

He also may need Nevada if Georgia doesn't go his way and it's uncomfortably close like so many others.

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2 minutes ago, GordonS said:

It's maybe not as close as feared in Nevada. 

 

Also they can keep accepting postal ballots till Nov 10th if they were postmarked yesterday or before. If it's tight Trump will be going apeshit.

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