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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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5 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Those polls that Trump quoted were the outliers - the average pols in sates are not going to be that far out - within the margin of error.

The ony state they really missed out on was Florida - but even then not by miles - an almost all due to Miami-Dade.

I'm going to work out the numbers when more states are complete, or near enough, but it's an absolutely massive, widely-accepted fact that the polls were miles out. And as you say, it's wrong.

Florida had Biden 49.1, Trump 46.6. That's currently sitting at Trump 51.2 (+4.6), Biden 47.8 (-1.3). Trump's vote is well outside the margin of error but Biden's is well within. The combined error is 5.9, at the edge of the margin. This was always a distinct possibility.

I'm certain that the timing of events in this election has lead to a narrative that's completely wrong. Biden is heading for a 306-232 electoral college victory - coincidentally, an exact reverse of Trump's result in 2016 - and a popular vote win of over 5 million. If that result had just dropped at once Democrats would have been marching into Washington like conquering heroes.

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6 minutes ago, roman_bairn said:


Em, Detroit is 70% white.
What is the point being made here?...

What's the reputation of Detroit? A city full of white anglo saxon protestants? Trump probably hasn't googled Wiki for your dubious 70% figure.

Edited by welshbairn
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The most shameful thing about this is, that millions of American citizens wholeheartedly believe Trump is their only hope for a better life for them and theirs, what a shit hole of a greatest country on the planet it is. 

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There's a tiny little part of me that has some sympathy for the giant fucking man child. He's a man that's spent his life absolutely desperate to be revered and it ends in the biggest embarrassment possible for him and he just can't handle it and he's having a complete breakdown in front of the world. It's all quite sad.
Thankfully he's a massive c**t that deserves everything he gets so my sympathy is short lived when looking at the bigger picture.

He was absolutely desperate to be seen as one of the greatest presidents of all time, something which he knows can never be considered if he fails to be re-elected. This is a guy who takes joy in being the one to dish out all the sackings, and now it's the average punter that he sees as his inferiors deciding to 'sack' him. Recipe for tears and snotters.
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What's the reputation of Detroit? A city full of white anglo saxon protestants? Trump probably hasn't googled Wiki for your dubious 70% figure.

Last time I looked we were counting votes in states. Not city centres.
Tbh, I can’t be arsed getting into a race based discussion so I deleted that post.
I’m enjoying this morning.
Don’t spoil it....
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3 minutes ago, Hedgecutter said:


He was absolutely desperate to be seen as one of the greatest presidents of all time, something which he knows can never be considered if he fails to be re-elected. This is a guy who takes joy in being the one to dish out all the sackings, and now it's the average punter that he sees as his inferiors deciding to 'sack' him. Recipe for tears and snotters.

I'm kind of hoping that when Bush, Clinton and Obama invite him to the annual ex-President piss up they wear little 2 terms badges.

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Quite interestingly the New York Post seem to have turned on him after that, and i've seen a few clips from Fox News today of them starting to question him slightly. Folk on Twitter have pointed out that generally, once Murdoch realises someone is of no use to him he drops them pretty much immediately, which is maybe what's happening here.

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Just now, roman_bairn said:


Last time I looked we were counting votes in states. Not city centres.
Tbh, I can’t be arsed getting into a race based discussion so I deleted that post.
I’m enjoying this morning.
Don’t spoil it....

Because it was a completely inaccurate figure and you got called out on it.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-05/trump-s-special-treatment-on-twitter-would-end-with-biden-win

Trump’s Special Twitter Treatment Would End With Biden Win

As U.S. president, Donald Trump receives special treatment from Twitter Inc. when he violates the company’s rules around offensive or misleading content. That exemption will end in January if he loses the presidency.

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