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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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1 minute ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I think Trump just blew any chance he has of being backed in 2024 by mainsteam Republicans.

He wasn't backed by them in 2016, I still struggle to see them keeping him off the ballot if he chooses to run again. He is incredibly popular with the base.

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I'm off to bed-- it's clear that Biden is going to win - reckon it will be Pennsylvania that puts him over tomorrow morning our time.

Georgia will still have military and overseas votes to do plus the supplementary votes - those where someone voted and forgot ID but can fill in a form to check they are who they say they are.

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8 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I think Trump just blew any chance he has of being backed in 2024 by mainsteam Republicans.

I wouldn't put it past him to start his own cable channel and a new AMERICA FIRST party to campaign for it with massive support of numpties. Looks like stalemate in Washington with a Republican Senate for two years at least. Sadly he could be back. We've been in an alternative Universe since 2014. 

Edited by welshbairn
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Just why is Pennsylvania taking so long to count the postal votes when four more populous states (plus Illinois which is only marginally less populous) declared ages ago?

I do think the inconsistencies in approach by states, and the time it takes to count votes inflames the situation and gives Trump time to build up ammunition to shoot at them. Even if his efforts are pretty poor.
Why do they accept postal votes after closing of the polls? They have had weeks and weeks prior to vote tbh....
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4 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:

Just why is Pennsylvania taking so long to count the postal votes when four more populous states (plus Illinois which is only marginally less populous) declared ages ago?

States are declared by the media when they're sure they know what the result will be - that doesn't mean they've finished counting. Illinois is actually well behind Pennsylvania, at 86%. California has only counted 77% so far.

 

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I do think the inconsistencies in approach by states, and the time it takes to count votes inflames the situation and gives Trump time to build up ammunition to shoot at them. Even if his efforts are pretty poor.

Why do they accept postal votes after closing of the polls? They have had weeks and weeks prior to vote tbh....

Pennsylvania were not allowed to deal with postal votes until in-person votes were counted.  

 

 

Florida were dealing with them 5 weeks before election day eg validation processes etc.

 

 

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1 minute ago, roman_bairn said:

Why do they accept postal votes after closing of the polls? They have had weeks and weeks prior to vote tbh....

Well, what was the cut-off date for posting votes? Does the USPS deliver 90-odd% of mail next day like Royal Mail?

I'm assuming as long as they had a postmark before a cut-off date then they would still count even if they arrived the day after the polls closed.

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But not in every state.
And again, you can see how Trump can try to build a case based on smudged postmarks....
In the big picture we are talking penny numbers though.

The numbers with a 3 November poistmark received after 3 November until 6 November in Georgia (Republican run by the way) will be tiny.
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1 minute ago, GordonS said:

States are declared by the media when they're sure they know what the result will be - that doesn't mean they've finished counting. Illinois is actually well behind Pennsylvania, at 86%. California has only counted 77% so far.

That seems a bit fucked up that the media declare results before they are official. Given the state of the right-wing controlled newspapers and Sky we have here I'm glad we don't have that system.

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10 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:

Just why is Pennsylvania taking so long to count the postal votes when four more populous states (plus Illinois which is only marginally less populous) declared ages ago?

Two thirds of the population of Illinois resides in the Chicagoland area, where there are no Republican representatives in any form of government whatsoever. It’s just a case of weighing the bag the ballots come in. 

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3 minutes ago, roman_bairn said:


I do think the inconsistencies in approach by states, and the time it takes to count votes inflames the situation and gives Trump time to build up ammunition to shoot at them. Even if his efforts are pretty poor.
Why do they accept postal votes after closing of the polls? They have had weeks and weeks prior to vote tbh....

Trump's appointee at the US Postal Service started openly making moves to slow down delivery for the election. So Democrats fought to extend the time that postal votes could be accepted. Meanwhile Republicans fought against them being counted before election day, thus the current shitfest.

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1 minute ago, roman_bairn said:


But the reverse in Ohio for example and I’m guessing in Arizona too given Trump is making ground.
Of course, nothing to see there in Trumps eyes...

Its very simple what Trump sees..

States he wins = good and fair

States he loses= bad and unfair.

The mans a c**t...

Night all...

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