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The US Presidential election prediction thread


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16 minutes ago, HTG said:

I'm looking forward to the handover moment. 4 years ago, Obama stuck his face to smile and did the decent thing. The man child might not be quite so balanced. 

"I'm here to work with Joe to ensure there is a smooth transition to the new administration.  This is a great country.  We know who to thank for that.  Joe really has his work cut out for him.  Tough act to follow.  No question about that.  People will looking to see if he turns out to be as great a president as me.  Probably not.  That's just my opinion.  I'm just saying.  Still I'm here to help where I can.  Believe me, he'll need my help.  That's what it's about.  God bless America." 

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2 minutes ago, Fullerene said:

"I'm here to work with Joe to ensure there is a smooth transition to the new administration.  This is a great country.  We know who to thank for that.  Joe really has his work cut out for him.  Tough act to follow.  No question about that.  People will looking to see if he turns out to be as great a president as me.  Probably not.  That's just my opinion.  I'm just saying.  Still I'm here to help where I can.  Believe me, he'll need my help.  That's what it's about.  God bless America." 

More likely to be “I’M NOT COMING OUT AND YOU CAN’T MAKE ME!  RUDY!!!”

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1 hour ago, Thistle_do_nicely said:

i really really wish P&B could let you give more than one greeny because ive got cnn literally on in the background right now as i work (quiet rn so """"work"""") from home and playing this while its on in the background was virtually indistinguishable

The guy Phil from CNN tweeted that it was a little too on target 😆

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Trumps was given a 10% chance before the election based on something close to 1 in 5 times there is a 5% miss on a presidential election polling. 1 in 2 times that would be in his direction. I.e. 10% chance. The polling is about 2.5% for Biden but with somewhere between 5-10 million votes to come in from strongly Democrat states like NY and CA, that will likely finish about 3.5% or close to a 5% miss. But he looks to have not gotten over the line. Crazy even had Biden gotten much closer the total change in the EC votes want change much. 

This was the prediction on the eve of the election.

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He will likely miss NC and did miss Florida but otherwise his projected states on 8.5% is almost the same as his probable 3.5%.

There are a lot of very Dem heavy votes to come in in PA and most seem to think thats a lock. 

Georgia is about 50 50. 

NV and AZ he is ahead, but there is a lot of doubt about how the ballots to be counted will end up.

Trumps last chance will be court challenges such as those in PA. 

My theory is that the hype caused this election had a very high turnout. Far more likely the turnout projections did not account for relatively disengaged groups coming out for Trump.

The Democrats did not do much door to door and other things while Trumps group were all over it and doing huge rallies that projected his message of confidence.

When the analysis is done I am sure turnout will be where this set of polling really made a mess of it. The state level polling though was a mess. US polling companies have some big questions to answer.

Edited by dorlomin
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No way Trump will be there for the handover. He'll take the huff and be playing golf at Mar a Lago. He will view having to hand power to someone else as "being a loser". Image is absolutely everything to Trump so he'll hide away and tweet a load of childish, conspiratorial shite. 

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Id add the nature of the late votes for the democrats, while heavily talked about before hand seem to freak just about everyone out in the night before the election. 

I wrote this in a private message channel (I was knackered) about watching CNN. 

Quote

Watching American news last night was weird. The graphics, visuals and noise often seemed to be closer to something for early teens. The tone was constantly repeating simple to understand information at a cadence aimed to soothe and be easy to absorb for a young adult. It was dystopian in its lack of real content and seeming mission to have to hold the wandering attention of someone with serious focus issues and both entertain and instil the very basic concepts of a democracy. Its easy to laugh at the US but the trend is coming here. Peoples constant craving for novelty is diminishing the ability to focus reduces the "executive function" of an adult that allows them to practice "delayed gratification". Trumps on every issue on every side of politics may be our future. Dystopian.

On a side note the split between western and southern latinos played a big role in the different outcomes. This had been flagged before hand but now will be something people will focus on. 

The right is funded by people who have a myopia on taxes and financial regulation. Everything else in their policy suit is designed to capture people whos values they can exploit. This tends to get portrayed as dumb assed rednecks\gammons or whatever not understanding the moral and intellectual superior "left" political offering. While the left tends to have a vast array of issues of the week that consume it. Obama focussed like a laser on healthcare. He had a hugely hostile political and legislative environment to operate in but squeaked out a basic healthcare package that democrats can still run on. In some ways the SNP is similar, it has one thing it cares about and goes with what works for the rest. 

The electorate is not as stupid as the people who cannot empathise with other peoples social or cultural values and fear think they are. They are targeted by well payed professionals in huge industries who have no moral qualms. The smug strutting around that comes after a big election about how dumb people are compared to the fart sniffing liberal bubbles is indicative of the lack of focus and clarity among the liberal\left world. Its more about sniggering point scoring than taking ownership of failures and working out what works. But hey ho, its post election and now everyone is the "Monday morning quarterback". 

Votes still being counted though, so this is probably too early to start unpacking. 

There should be a race to see if anyone can count slower than NY. Every bloody election. Its entire voting system is a  mess that only gets no attention because it is so solid Democrat. Had Georgia or Florida that scale of slow counting the conspiracy theories would be off the charts. 

Stay safe!

 

lockdown2.jpg.3e516a2d0a1875c753912b21b5a38169.jpg

 

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37 minutes ago, KnightswoodBear said:

 

If it was a straight up choice between never seeing anything by Janey Godley again or 4 more years of Trump, then get me a fucking red hat and stop counting those fucking votes.

Football account

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1 hour ago, MP_MFC said:

If I never have to hear the promos for Quest for business again it'll be too soon.

 

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

That guy has one of the most annoying voices in the world.

His half cut reporting from the final flight of Concorde though was the stuff of legend.

 

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42 minutes ago, KnightswoodBear said:

 

If it was a straight up choice between never seeing anything by Janey Godley again or 4 more years of Trump, then get me a fucking red hat and stop counting those fucking votes.

Rangers fans would go for Trump anyway, no?

As to Godley, not my bag. Boyle, Connolly, Dave Allen... on the other hand.

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4 minutes ago, Lurkst said:

 

His half cut reporting from the final flight of Concorde though was the stuff of legend.

 

I am very much disappointed that a YouTube search did not turn up Richard Quest on a New Zealand musical comedy show.

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50 minutes ago, Highland Capital said:

Each to their own and Janey Godley's humour isn't to my taste, but it is interesting how over the last couple of years she's become so wildly popular in Scottish public life.

No, if you look at the correlation between rise in facebook maws and the fall in educational attainment its pretty clear to see. 

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