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The Relegation Dogfight


The Relegation Dogfight  

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It will be interesting to see what the points difference between 4th and 9th is at the end of the season. Would be funny if the only thing separating teams from the promotion and relegation play-offs was goal difference. Although looking at ours, I might not be laughing.

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The benefit we have is that everyone is beating everyone else.  We don't have a huge gap, but at this stage I'd say its unlikely that 6 of the teams below us will finish above us.

That said, the shitshow that was 2016/17 will always remind me how quickly things can go south. 

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1 hour ago, CALDERON said:

The benefit we have is that everyone is beating everyone else.  We don't have a huge gap, but at this stage I'd say its unlikely that 6 of the teams below us will finish above us.

That said, the shitshow that was 2016/17 will always remind me how quickly things can go south. 

Yeah, there are simply too many teams below you for all of them to catch you over the course of 7 games where they're all playing each other.

it's feasible that a couple of currently bottom half teams put runs together while you collapse a bit and end up dropping to 6th or 7th, but to end up in the bottom two from here Raith would pretty much have to lose every game. It's clearly not going to happen.

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20 minutes ago, Smokerson said:

Alloa 10th, us 9th i think.

We have morton at home last game so right now i would take having to beat them to avoid 9th.

Counting anyone from Caley Thistle downwards out of it would be daft at this point, but Morton are still favourites for 9th.

While you've lost your last two, Arbroath's record from the start of January is W4 D4 L2, while Morton's is W1 D5 L5. Maybe those two defeats are going to be the beginning of a longer bad run which could be fatal at this point, but your January signings clearly made a significant diifference while we were getting worse. You've got more reason to be confident of picking up the wins to get out of this than we do.

Edited by Dunning1874
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12 minutes ago, stan3600 said:

I wish it was 36 games.

No thanks. Alloa will be doing very well to get 8th or higher from here; Arbroath's point is good but the fact that we don't play Hearts until the middle of April could prove to be an advantage. They'll have the title wrapped up long before then. 

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48 minutes ago, virginton said:

No thanks. Alloa will be doing very well to get 8th or higher from here; Arbroath's point is good but the fact that we don't play Hearts until the middle of April could prove to be an advantage. They'll have the title wrapped up long before then. 

Going by their game today, I really don't think it'll affect their form much.

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22 hours ago, RossBFaeDundee said:

Going by their game today, I really don't think it'll affect their form much.

Alloa are likely toast. Their remaining lineup is Ayr, Arbroath, Hearts, Morton, Raith, and the Pars. Hearts will likely have clinched the title, Raith usually underperform and the Pars will likely be assured the playoffs, but facing the three teams directed above them in the next four matches will decide the season pretty quickly unless they win the first two against Ayr and Arbroath. It’s likely even a tie in either game seals their fate, especially versus Arbroath, as they have to make up 9 points versus either Ayr or Morton because of the GD mismatch.

Morton have a more difficult schedule than Ayr, marginally, but both are decent values versus Arbroath to avoid ninth, although the close margins make it a toss-up...however Arbroath close with Ayr, the Pars and Morton, so the end could tell all.

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Queen of the South's run-in is abysmal and are the ones to watch dropping like a stone. I'd be disappointed if we don't now finish above them, given our easier fixture list. 
I don't think it's that bad tbh. We've beaten all those teams already this season so are capable of getting results. I'm just glad we don't have a game against Alloa tbh. Last game of the season I'd much rather travel to Dundee (who hopefully have their playoff spot sealed) than to Arbroath if they need a result.

It's an old cliché but I don't think it's every been as appropriate as this season - anyone can beat anyone. I don't fear any side, it just depends what QoS side turns up. Dapo will likely miss the rest of the season which is a major loss but hopefully Jones is back sharpish which will be a major boost to our chances.
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Playing everyone apart from the bottom three is objectively the worst fixture list you could have. 
That's correct but I can assure you there won't be many QoS fans upset we don't have to play Alloa again.
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2 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

We’re done playing Hearts and Dundee (yes know they’re 4th but think they’ve strengthened with Cummings and McMullan) so happy with that. Although it’s going to go right down to the last day I think.

If Dundee sack McPake then they could actually be good. As it stands, they're a bit like the Pars: they've got an above average squad at this level with a shite manager. 

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3 hours ago, 19QOS19 said:

I don't think it's that bad tbh. We've beaten all those teams already this season so are capable of getting results. I'm just glad we don't have a game against Alloa tbh. Last game of the season I'd much rather travel to Dundee (who hopefully have their playoff spot sealed) than to Arbroath if they need a result.

It's an old cliché but I don't think it's every been as appropriate as this season - anyone can beat anyone. I don't fear any side, it just depends what QoS side turns up. Dapo will likely miss the rest of the season which is a major loss but hopefully Jones is back sharpish which will be a major boost to our chances.

We're at home to Dundee in the last game but your point has some merit. 

The games we have are Hearts away, Raith home, ICT home, Dunfermline away, Ayr away and Dundee at home. Earlier in the season we took zero points from that set of fixtures. Bizarrely we took 16 points from the reverse 6 fixtures. 

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