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The Relegation Dogfight


The Relegation Dogfight  

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And then there were 4...

Huge game next Sat, Arbroath at home to Alloa. I'm thinking probably an Alloa win(by a few goals) to keep the 3 point gap to 9th knowing we have a winnable game on Tuesday night and a home game against Alloa still to come  A draw would be ok, an Arbroath win doesn't bear thinking about.

 

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Ayr are still in it, but we're rapidly moving towards a fight between Morton, Arbroath and Alloa. Arbroath have the opportunity to finish Alloa off on Saturday while still being in the cup means Morton and Ayr will be waiting until next Tuesday for their respective must win games v ICT & Dundee which definitely won't have both sides absolutely shitting themselves.of Arbroath win on Saturday.

I am praying that Morton can somehow contrive a sequence of results that makes us safe before the disaster area last two games of Alloa at home and Arbroath away. f**k needing points from that.

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6 hours ago, Dunning1874 said:

Ayr are still in it, but we're rapidly moving towards a fight between Morton, Arbroath and Alloa. Arbroath have the opportunity to finish Alloa off on Saturday while still being in the cup means Morton and Ayr will be waiting until next Tuesday for their respective must win games v ICT & Dundee which definitely won't have both sides absolutely shitting themselves.of Arbroath win on Saturday.

I am praying that Morton can somehow contrive a sequence of results that makes us safe before the disaster area last two games of Alloa at home and Arbroath away. f**k needing points from that.

Think we will definitely need a win out of the Alloa game to have a chance of going into the Arbroath game with the cigars out. 

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1 minute ago, Dunning1874 said:

We are not doing this Dunfermline fans insisting relegation is happening discourse again after 18/19. It was nigh on impossible then and it's as unlikely now.

Aye,  I’ve fucked about with a predictor and the run of results required is insane.  It’s mathematically possible,  but very unlikely.

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11 minutes ago, parsforlife said:

Aye,  I’ve fucked about with a predictor and the run of results required is insane.  It’s mathematically possible,  but very unlikely.

Whats the lowest we can finish? Is it bottom?

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14 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

We are not doing this Dunfermline fans insisting relegation is happening discourse again after 18/19. It was nigh on impossible then and it's as unlikely now.

I don't think we will get relegated but we might cause people a few sleepless nights

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Yes.  By a point but that was me deliberately trying to relegate us.  


No chance that’ll happen, Pars will be at worst 5th place and probably in the top 4. You’re 3 points behind us and Dundee with a game in hand and you’ve two games in hand on every team below you.
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Remaining fixtures for the (not so) Fantastic Four:

Ayr United- 26 points

Dundee (H)

Dunfermline (H)

Arbroath (A)

Qos (H)

ICT (A)

Morton- 25 Points

ICT (H)

Dundee (A)

Hearts (H)

Alloa (H) 

Arbroath (A) 

Arbroath- 22 Points

Alloa (H)

Raith (A)

Ayr United (H) 

Dunfermline (A)

Morton (H) 

Alloa Athletic- 18 points

Arbroath (A)

Hearts (A)

Raith (H)

Morton (A)

Dunfermline (H)

 

What are we predicting the magic total to avoid relegation will be? 

Edited by ayrunitedfw
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On 22/03/2021 at 19:06, johnnydun said:

I think it will more likey be Cove Rangers in they Playoff final than Partick Thistle.

We are capable of really strong performances, pass the ball well and can create chances. With Mitch we have a natural goalscorer but defensively a touch suspect and this might be our downfall. That and squad depth. Could well make it up via playoffs but could be a season too soon, who knows. 

We beat Partick at home and drew away this season but for me they are the team to beat in the playoff. Whoever beats them will fancy there chances of staying up or going up.

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22 minutes ago, ayrunitedfw said:

What are we predicting the magic total to avoid relegation will be? 

Firstly, I'm too lazy to bother with a detailed review of previous season's statistics - there's others on P&B that do though and so they can correct my thoughts.

On a full season in the ten team league I always hope Queens can get around 42 points as that usually seems to offer safety.  So on a season that is a quarter less I've been hoping this season that Queens could reach 30 points which we have now done.

Whilst each side has 5 games left, I think its fair to say that with things being so even between the clubs that no club will win all 5 games.  Three wins will probably be a very good return from the last five I think.  So if Alloa get three wins then they could reach 27 points.  If Arbroath could get three wins then they could reach 31 points - which could still put Queens in trouble, but I'd like to think we would pick up another point or two yet.

So I think I'm suggesting that around the 30 point mark should be the magic total ........... this could be a load of bollocks though, so be warned!

Edited by Otis Blue
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1 hour ago, ayrunitedfw said:

Remaining fixtures for the (not so) Fantastic Four:

Ayr United- 26 points

Dundee (H)

Dunfermline (H)

Arbroath (A)

Qos (H)

ICT (A)

Morton- 25 Points

ICT (H)

Dundee (A)

Hearts (H)

Alloa (H) 

Arbroath (A) 

Arbroath- 22 Points

Alloa (H)

Raith (A)

Ayr United (H) 

Dunfermline (A)

Morton (H) 

Alloa Athletic- 18 points

Arbroath (A)

Hearts (A)

Raith (H)

Morton (A)

Dunfermline (H)

 

What are we predicting the magic total to avoid relegation will be? 

It is quite terrifying that Arbroath have the better fixtures there...

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57 minutes ago, Otis Blue said:

Firstly, I'm too lazy to bother with a detailed review of previous season's statistics - there's others on P&B that do though and so they can correct my thoughts.

On a full season in the ten team league I always hope Queens can get around 42 points as that usually seems to offer safety.  So on a season that is a quarter less I've been hoping this season that Queens could reach 30 points which we have now done.

Whilst each side has 5 games left, I think its fair to say that with things being so even between the clubs that no club will win all 5 games.  Three wins will probably be a very good return from the last five I think.  So if Alloa get three wins then they could reach 27 points.  If Arbroath could get three wins then they could reach 31 points - which could still put Queens in trouble, but I'd like to think we would pick up another point or two yet.

So I think I'm suggesting that around the 30 point mark should be the magic total ........... this could be a load of bollocks though, so be warned!

Since 1994/95 there have been only 3 occasions when 40 points wasn’t enough to guarantee 8th.
Airdrie finished 9th in 2006/07 with 40 points and Cowdenbeath finished 9th with 40 points in 2013/14.
In 2008/09 Airdrie finished 9th with 42 points.
So, normally 30 points would be enough but I think this will be one of those season where it isn’t. Not unrealistic to assume Arbroath will get 31. So, 32 should be the target imo.

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Remaining fixtures for the (not so) Fantastic Four:
Ayr United- 26 points
Dundee (H)
Dunfermline (H)
Arbroath (A)
Qos (H)
ICT (A)
Morton- 25 Points
ICT (H)
Dundee (A)
Hearts (H)
Alloa (H) 
Arbroath (A) 
Arbroath- 22 Points
Alloa (H)
Raith (A)
Ayr United (H) 
Dunfermline (A)
Morton (H) 
Alloa Athletic- 18 points
Arbroath (A)
Hearts (A)
Raith (H)
Morton (A)
Dunfermline (H)
 
What are we predicting the magic total to avoid relegation will be? 
Going purely by the run of fixtures I'd say it's gonna come down to us or Morton.
We're picking up points but have only really pulled away from Alloa. Hopefully Alloa beat Arbroath and we can pull a bit further ahead
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Arbroath v Alloa is absolutely massive, Alloa lose and they’re finishing bottom as they’re getting nothing at Tynecastle even against this Hearts team and Morton and Ayr could be dragged into it. Alloa win and Arbroath will need to be praying Morton and Ayr get nothing off their games. I think 30 points might be enough for 8th but 32 to be 100% safe and sleeping soundly.

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