PauloPerth Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, Scary Bear said: Raith Rovers haven’t had a home game on Boxing Day since 1994. There should be an inquiry into that. We often get sent to some completely random destination at new year, instead of our traditional derby against Dundee when the OF, Edinburgh and Lanarkshire teams would all be playing each other. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said: That's been done for "getting drawn together/apart in SFs". Fairly incredible run from about 1960 to 1990 where they only drew each other 3 times out of almost 50 appearances in Semi-Finals. If you believe the conspiracy theory this came to a halt at about the time draws began to be televised live from late 1980s/early 1990s. 1945-46 VIC TOGETHER 1945-46 GLC TOGETHER 1946-47 GLC APART 1947-48 SCO APART 1947-48 GLA APART 1947-48 GLC APART 1948-49 GLA APART 1948-49 GLC APART 1949-50 GLA TOGETHER 1949-50 GLC APART 1950-51 GLA APART 1951-52 LGE TOGETHER 1952-53 GLC APART 1953-54 SCO APART 1953-54 GLA TOGETHER 1954-55 GLA APART 1954-55 GLC TOGETHER 1955-56 GLA APART 1957-58 LGE APART 1957-58 GLC TOGETHER 1958-59 GLC TOGETHER 1959-60 SCO TOGETHER 1959-60 GLC TOGETHER 1961-62 SCO APART 1961-62 GLA APART 1962-63 SCO APART 1963-64 GLA APART 1964-65 LGE APART 1965-66 LGE APART 1965-66 SCO APART 1966-67 LGE APART 1968-69 SCO APART 1968-69 GLA TOGETHER 1969-70 GLA APART 1970-71 LGE APART 1970-71 SCO APART 1970-71 GLA APART 1971-72 SCO APART 1972-73 DRY APART 1972-73 LGE APART 1972-73 SCO APART 1973-74 DRY APART 1973-74 LGE TOGETHER 1974-75 DRY APART 1974-75 GLA APART 1975-76 LGE APART 1975-76 GLA APART 1976-77 LGE APART 1976-77 SCO APART 1977-78 LGE APART 1978-79 LGE TOGETHER 1978-79 GLA APART 1979-80 DRY APART 1979-80 SCO APART 1979-80 GLA APART 1980-81 SCO APART 1980-81 GLA APART 1981-82 GLA APART 1982-83 LGE APART 1982-83 SCO APART 1982-83 GLA APART 1983-84 LGE APART 1984-85 GLA APART 1985-86 GLA APART 1986-87 LGE APART 1986-87 GLA APART 1987-88 GLA APART 1988-89 SCO APART 1989-90 LGE APART 1990-91 LGE APART 1991-92 SCO TOGETHER 1992-93 LGE APART 1993-94 LGE TOGETHER 1995-96 SCO TOGETHER 1997-98 SCO TOGETHER 1998-99 SCO APART 2000-01 LGE TOGETHER 2001-02 LGE TOGETHER 2001-02 SCO APART 2002-03 LGE APART 2008-09 LGE APART 2010-11 LGE APART 2014-15 LGE TOGETHER 2015-16 SCO TOGETHER 2016-17 LGE TOGETHER 2016-17 SCO TOGETHER 2017-18 LGE APART 2017-18 SCO TOGETHER 2018-19 LGE APART 2019-20 LGE APART The problem with that is you have to cherrypick your timeframe. You can choose other samples of similar size and the effect goes away. Put it this way, before that run they were drawn together 10 times in 23 semi-final draws from the post-war resumption. For something with only 0.33 probability of happening that's unlikely. Or you can look at the run of 4 in a row and say that had only a 1 in 81 chance of happening, so it must have been fixed. When dealing with real events it's normal to have strings of results and patterns. Random doesn't look random. Like iTunes, they had to tweak shuffle mode because people wouldn't believe it was random when they would get 3 or 4 sons in a row from the same album. But the law of big numbers says that's always going to happen. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arch Stanton Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 (edited) During the last 10 seasons (including this one) in the 3 domestic cups, Saints have been drawn at home 23 times, away 19 times. Nothing out of the ordinary. Edited August 16, 2021 by Arch Stanton 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortescueFotheringhamSmyth Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Scary Bear said: Raith Rovers haven’t had a home game on Boxing Day since 1994. Raith Rovers were apparently not awarded a single penalty kick in their Locke/Yogi relegation season. (I'm not sure how many pens Lewis Vaughan won for Dumbarton that spring.) So infeasible stats do occur in other categories. EPL stats from last term show almost exactly one penalty kick was awarded for every three games played - a 30+% increase on the 5-season average and more than double the 1990s tally in the English top flight. I doubt there was one spot-kick every three games in the Championship five seasons ago, but Raith's penalty-kick-free season is still remarkable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortescueFotheringhamSmyth Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Silly question. 13 straight swerves in the Glasgow Cup SFs suggests it might have been partly pre-dawn. Maybe previous year's finalists straight to SFs and seeded. Was that ever policy? I've never heard that it was. I assume the other competition listed is the Merchants Cup. I've no idea of the exact format for that either. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 (edited) 22 minutes ago, FortescueFotheringhamSmyth said: Silly question. 13 straight swerves in the Glasgow Cup SFs suggests it might have been partly pre-dawn. Maybe previous year's finalists straight to SFs and seeded. Was that ever policy? I've never heard that it was. I assume the other competition listed is the Merchants Cup. I've no idea of the exact format for that either. It wasnt. EDIT: To clarify - might've been since ceased being first-team tournament in later 1980s but those aren't on list anyway. All on list were open draws. Edited August 16, 2021 by HibeeJibee 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arch Stanton Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 In the last 30 or so years, St. Mirren and Morton have been kept apart in the Renfrewshire Cup SFs. The other SF-ists are the finalists of the Victoria Cup which is Renfrewshire's amateur cup competition. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roverthemoon Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 3 hours ago, Empty It said: Why do you need heated balls when you've got guys like Craigen just looking in and selecting the ball he wanted. This bugged me yesterday more than it should. Dropped the balls in, looking down at them the whole time and didn’t even swirl them around. Amateurish. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottsdad Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 6 hours ago, VictorOnopko said: Didn't Rangers get something like 12+ home cup draws in a row a while ago? The odds against that happening were... high. The odds of Rangers getting HHHHHHHHHHHH for 12 ties isn't actually that high. Like flipping a coin 12 times, the chances of getting 12 Heads in a row is the same as getting 12 Tails in a row. Also the same odds as alternating them. Or any combination you like. A run like this is unusual but not unprecedented. Try flipping a coin 100 times - you'll find you get something close to 50/50 Heads/Tails. But within that run of 100 flips, you'll find runs of Heads and runs of Tails. Assuming that the draws are decided in a similar fashion (say, through an electronic coin toss) the same thing will occur. Let me put it this way. After 12 consecutive home games, the chances of Rangers making it to 13 home games in a row was 50/50. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 58 minutes ago, roverthemoon said: This bugged me yesterday more than it should. Dropped the balls in, looking down at them the whole time and didn’t even swirl them around. Amateurish. During the Scottish Cup draw last week there was a point where chap drew out 30, 31, 32, 34 or similar. Probably not just chance... perhaps more likely those balls had gone in beside each other and not been adequately mixed-up. Giving the heap a swirl doesn't do very much unless you also churn them as they can just move around in a clump. Loading randomly, vertically (1, 11, 21, etc.), or diagonally (1, 12, 23, etc.), might also help. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Perhaps looking at how often the OF draw each other, when possible, versus not would be interesting. It is, of course, generally going to be more likely they don’t draw each other, but at some point the avoidance would become pretty evident. One of the earlier posts looked at this somewhat obliquely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mantis Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 2 hours ago, FortescueFotheringhamSmyth said: 13 straight swerves in the Glasgow Cup SFs suggests it might have been partly pre-dawn. Maybe they should do it like this every time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 If it's conspiracy theories you're after, then step into my office. St Johnstone's league and Scottish Cup draws over the past 10 seasons (including this one) are as follows; Home 13 Away 25. (34% home, 66% away). * Obviously ignoring League Cup group stage, cup replays and the many cup semi finals and finals. Managed to leave out Cup semi finals in 'neutral' Glasgow against OF or in Edinburgh against an Edinburgh team. Also ignored the many European cup ties we've been involved in, which worked out 50-50 anyway funnily enough. Then you look at opening league fixtures each season. Over the past 11 seasons we have had 2 at home and 9 away. (18% home, 82% away). The authorities have tried hard to hold back the rise of St Johnstone, and yet still we are the country's second most successful team over this period. It does make you wonder what would have been possible for us if it was a level playing field.The odds of any team who haven't won a title (either Premiership or Championship) in the previous season getting a home game on the opening day is often much less than 50%, since the opening day is flag day.This season it was 50% due to city clashes with Rangers/Celtic and Hearts/Hibs, but that isn't usually the case. In fact, in the seasons where Rangers were in the lower leagues it would only have been a 33.3% chance each season.There are also loads of complications with Europe at the start of the season which severely limits the possible fixtures in August. European matches happen every midweek, and any team playing on a Thursday has to play the following Sunday, while teams playing on Tuesdays has to play the previous Saturday. What that basically boils down to is that a team in the CL can't play a team in the EL or ECL during August, since there might not be a suitable date for the game.That's all before you consider that there is no actual requirement for the opening fixtures to be random anyway. I'd say they pretty clearly aren't. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortescueFotheringhamSmyth Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 56 minutes ago, The Mantis said: Maybe they should do it like this every time. Massn-bassn-rassn-frassn spellchecker. There is one thing that should befall some folk at the Scottish football authorities that is traditionally carried out at dawn. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mantis Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, craigkillie said: The odds of any team who haven't won a title (either Premiership or Championship) in the previous season getting a home game on the opening day is often much less than 50%, since the opening day is flag day. I remember ICT not getting a flag day when we were promoted in 2004 and Thistle were disputing their relegation. We obviously got Thistle’s fixtures. Away to Livi on the opening day, and a “derby” with Killie at New Year. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PauloPerth Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 3 hours ago, craigkillie said: The odds of any team who haven't won a title (either Premiership or Championship) in the previous season getting a home game on the opening day is often much less than 50%, since the opening day is flag day. This season it was 50% due to city clashes with Rangers/Celtic and Hearts/Hibs, but that isn't usually the case. In fact, in the seasons where Rangers were in the lower leagues it would only have been a 33.3% chance each season. There are also loads of complications with Europe at the start of the season which severely limits the possible fixtures in August. European matches happen every midweek, and any team playing on a Thursday has to play the following Sunday, while teams playing on Tuesdays has to play the previous Saturday. What that basically boils down to is that a team in the CL can't play a team in the EL or ECL during August, since there might not be a suitable date for the game. That's all before you consider that there is no actual requirement for the opening fixtures to be random anyway. I'd say they pretty clearly aren't. Okay I get the less than 50% thing. But twice at home in 11 years?! 18% at home on opening day!! Back to back season openers at rugby park in amongst that lot as well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 (edited) 16 hours ago, HibeeJibee said: During the Scottish Cup draw last week there was a point where chap drew out 30, 31, 32, 34 or similar. Probably not just chance... perhaps more likely those balls had gone in beside each other and not been adequately mixed-up. Giving the heap a swirl doesn't do very much unless you also churn them as they can just move around in a clump. Loading randomly, vertically (1, 11, 21, etc.), or diagonally (1, 12, 23, etc.), might also help. That's happened a few times in the last couple of years. The person 'mixing' them is just swirling them around in the same order they've been dropped in. Edited August 17, 2021 by TheScarf 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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