Let's All Laugh at the Royalist Nats and Greens

[DiscoStu]

On 04/07/2023 at 14:19, StellarHibee said:

 

Saturday will be a great day.

[itzdrk]

Little bit embarrassed for DiscoHugh here.  

[Jeff Venom]

"Crazy".

Yeah, absolutely unheard of in politics. 

[DiscoStu]

Good article from Andrew Liddle here about the current drama within the Nationalists.

Mhairi Black is jumping before SNP gets the push (thecourier.co.uk)

I'd say bankruptcy awaits.

[lichtgilphead]

47 minutes ago, DiscoStu said:

Good article from Andrew Liddle here about the current drama within the Nationalists.

Mhairi Black is jumping before SNP gets the push (thecourier.co.uk)

I'd say bankruptcy awaits.

https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/authors/andrew-liddle

Andrew Liddle is Political Communications Officer for the Scottish Labour Party. Previously he was Lead Reporter for The Courier in Dundee, and Scottish Political Correspondent for Aberdeen Journals. He graduated from the University of St Andrews in 2012 with an MA in modern history, where he was also chairman of the Labour Society. He lives in Edinburgh.

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/authors/andrew-liddle

Andrew Liddle is Political Communications Officer for the Scottish Labour Party. Previously he was Lead Reporter for The Courier in Dundee, and Scottish Political Correspondent for Aberdeen Journals. He graduated from the University of St Andrews in 2012 with an MA in modern history, where he was also chairman of the Labour Society. He lives in Edinburgh.

He's written sympathetic biographies of Churchill, Farage and Ruth Davidson. 

[DiscoStu]

1 hour ago, lichtgilphead said:

https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/authors/andrew-liddle

Andrew Liddle is Political Communications Officer for the Scottish Labour Party. Previously he was Lead Reporter for The Courier in Dundee, and Scottish Political Correspondent for Aberdeen Journals. He graduated from the University of St Andrews in 2012 with an MA in modern history, where he was also chairman of the Labour Society. He lives in Edinburgh.

Feel free to counter his points.

[Zern]

4 minutes ago, DiscoStu said:

Feel free to counter his points.

How about nah. I don't feel the need to counter some spin doctor's narrative.

[StellarHibee]

5 minutes ago, DiscoStu said:

Feel free to counter his points.

His point appears to be that Westminster is a highly toxic place (hard to argue with tbh). But he only wants to talk about the toxicity in one party at Westminster, while conveniently ignoring glaring examples of toxicity in other party's that also reside there.

[DiscoStu]

I can't force you lot to counter the points if you don't want to.

I like the article.  The SNP are in complete disarray just now.

[lichtgilphead]

29 minutes ago, DiscoStu said:

Feel free to counter his points.

It's just the usual Labour spin-doctor's collection of uncorroborated assertions, stretching points and super-optomistic pish

Here are the usual tell-tale signs:

"An eyewitness suggested" - note the careful phrasing and the absence of direct quotes.

"A recent case in point" - by what definition is an incident in 2017 recent?

"Sir Keir Starmer’s party are now just four points behind the Nationalists in Westminster voting intention" - Even a 4% swing to Labour wouldn't take Mhari's seat. They would need nearer 13%. Ironically, Mhari's decision not to stand will give Labour a better chance, as she will have a big personal vote. I note, however, that wee Dougie Alexander doesn't appear to fancy his chances of retaking the seat. Funny that, given Liddle's optimism.

"although other polls have the gap even narrower" - why not quote these fantastic polls, which still show Labour behind the SNP, even with the SNP "in complete disarray"

"Were such a result to be replicated at a General Election, it would be highly likely Black would lose her seat of Paisley and Renfrewshire South." - as I point out above, they need around a 13% swing. What definition of "highly likely" is our Labour staffer using? Incidentally, I believe that Electoral Calculus's most recent prediction shows the SNP retaining the seat.

"In recent weeks the SNP has seen six MPs confirm they will stand down at the General Election, with more announcements likely in the near future." - as I've already explained elsewhere on P'n'B, the SNP are currently asking MP's whether they intend to stand again, as seat boundary changes mean that they will not automatically be reselected. 

"The end of Mhairi Black’s political career" - Everyone (except our Labour staffer) expects Mhari to stand for Holyrood at some point in the future. Does Liddle have some sort of inside knowledge that she never intends to stand for election again? I think not.

That's 7 direct quotes from the spin-doctors pish, every single one of which is easily demonstrated to be false to a greater or lesser degree.

@DiscoStu likes Liddle's article. He's easily fooled.

[Wee Bully]

5 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

It's just the usual Labour spin-doctor's collection of uncorroborated assertions, stretching points and super-optomistic pish

Here are the usual tell-tale signs:

"An eyewitness suggested" - note the careful phrasing and the absence of direct quotes.

"A recent case in point" - by what definition is an incident in 2017 recent?

"Sir Keir Starmer’s party are now just four points behind the Nationalists in Westminster voting intention" - Even a 4% swing to Labour wouldn't take Mhari's seat. They would need nearer 13%. Ironically, Mhari's decision not to stand will give Labour a better chance, as she will have a big personal vote. I note, however, that wee Dougie Alexander doesn't appear to fancy his chances of retaking the seat. Funny that, given Liddle's optimism.

"although other polls have the gap even narrower" - why not quote these fantastic polls, which still show Labour behind the SNP, even with the SNP "in complete disarray"

"Were such a result to be replicated at a General Election, it would be highly likely Black would lose her seat of Paisley and Renfrewshire South." - as I point out above, they need around a 13% swing. What definition of "highly likely" is our Labour staffer using? Incidentally, I believe that Electoral Calculus's most recent prediction shows the SNP retaining the seat.

"In recent weeks the SNP has seen six MPs confirm they will stand down at the General Election, with more announcements likely in the near future." - as I've already explained elsewhere on P'n'B, the SNP are currently asking MP's whether they intend to stand again, as seat boundary changes mean that they will not automatically be reselected. 

"The end of Mhairi Black’s political career" - Everyone (except our Labour staffer) expects Mhari to stand for Holyrood at some point in the future. Does Liddle have some sort of inside knowledge that she never intends to stand for election again? I think not.

That's 7 direct quotes from the spin-doctors pish, every single one of which is easily demonstrated to be false to a greater or lesser degree.

@DiscoStu likes Liddle's article. He's easily fooled.

Don’t expect a response from @DiscoStu.  He’s not here for an “honest debate”.

[RH33]

Black's involvement in a fiasco involving a drag queen and a bunch P3 kids on his insta just above him legs spread with ball gag lost her a fair bit of support in the community. Not enough to loose the election but showed poor judgement.

[DiscoStu]

On 07/07/2023 at 20:24, lichtgilphead said:

It's just the usual Labour spin-doctor's collection of uncorroborated assertions, stretching points and super-optomistic pish

Here are the usual tell-tale signs:

"An eyewitness suggested" - note the careful phrasing and the absence of direct quotes.

"A recent case in point" - by what definition is an incident in 2017 recent?

"Sir Keir Starmer’s party are now just four points behind the Nationalists in Westminster voting intention" - Even a 4% swing to Labour wouldn't take Mhari's seat. They would need nearer 13%. Ironically, Mhari's decision not to stand will give Labour a better chance, as she will have a big personal vote. I note, however, that wee Dougie Alexander doesn't appear to fancy his chances of retaking the seat. Funny that, given Liddle's optimism.

"although other polls have the gap even narrower" - why not quote these fantastic polls, which still show Labour behind the SNP, even with the SNP "in complete disarray"

"Were such a result to be replicated at a General Election, it would be highly likely Black would lose her seat of Paisley and Renfrewshire South." - as I point out above, they need around a 13% swing. What definition of "highly likely" is our Labour staffer using? Incidentally, I believe that Electoral Calculus's most recent prediction shows the SNP retaining the seat.

"In recent weeks the SNP has seen six MPs confirm they will stand down at the General Election, with more announcements likely in the near future." - as I've already explained elsewhere on P'n'B, the SNP are currently asking MP's whether they intend to stand again, as seat boundary changes mean that they will not automatically be reselected. 

"The end of Mhairi Black’s political career" - Everyone (except our Labour staffer) expects Mhari to stand for Holyrood at some point in the future. Does Liddle have some sort of inside knowledge that she never intends to stand for election again? I think not.

That's 7 direct quotes from the spin-doctors pish, every single one of which is easily demonstrated to be false to a greater or lesser degree.

@DiscoStu likes Liddle's article. He's easily fooled.

 

 

Quote

"An eyewitness suggested" - note the careful phrasing and the absence of direct quotes.

Even The National has reported this mate.

Quote

"A recent case in point" - by what definition is an incident in 2017 recent?

He was referring to the suspension, which took place only last year.  Nice try.

Quote

"Sir Keir Starmer’s party are now just four points behind the Nationalists in Westminster voting intention" - Even a 4% swing to Labour wouldn't take Mhari's seat. They would need nearer 13%. Ironically, Mhari's decision not to stand will give Labour a better chance, as she will have a big personal vote. I note, however, that wee Dougie Alexander doesn't appear to fancy his chances of retaking the seat. Funny that, given Liddle's optimism.

Liddle didn't mention a 4% swing.  He said that Labour were only 4% behind across the board, which is an entirely different thing.

Quote

"although other polls have the gap even narrower" - why not quote these fantastic polls, which still show Labour behind the SNP, even with the SNP "in complete disarray"

Not sure what you're getting at here.  The SNP are indeed in disarray, and the trajectory is bad for them.  Why should he have to quote the other polls?

Quote

"Were such a result to be replicated at a General Election, it would be highly likely Black would lose her seat of Paisley and Renfrewshire South." - as I point out above, they need around a 13% swing. What definition of "highly likely" is our Labour staffer using? Incidentally, I believe that Electoral Calculus's most recent prediction shows the SNP retaining the seat.

Not sure about this point.. I'm willing to go with your assertion that he's wrong if you can back it up.

Quote

"In recent weeks the SNP has seen six MPs confirm they will stand down at the General Election, with more announcements likely in the near future." - as I've already explained elsewhere on P'n'B, the SNP are currently asking MP's whether they intend to stand again, as seat boundary changes mean that they will not automatically be reselected. 

This doesn't contradict anything Liddle has said?

Quote

"The end of Mhairi Black’s political career" - Everyone (except our Labour staffer) expects Mhari to stand for Holyrood at some point in the future. Does Liddle have some sort of inside knowledge that she never intends to stand for election again? I think not.

Everyone?  Incorrect.

Quote

That's 7 direct quotes from the spin-doctors pish, every single one of which is easily demonstrated to be false to a greater or lesser degree.

Naw they huvnae!

Edited July 9, 2023 by DiscoStu

[lichtgilphead]

2 hours ago, DiscoStu said:

 

 

Even The National has reported this mate.

He was referring to the suspension, which took place only last year.  Nice try.

Liddle didn't mention a 4% swing.  He said that Labour were only 4% behind across the board, which is an entirely different thing.

Not sure what you're getting at here.  The SNP are indeed in disarray, and the trajectory is bad for them.  Why should he have to quote the other polls?

Not sure about this point.. I'm willing to go with your assertion that he's wrong if you can back it up.

This doesn't contradict anything Liddle has said?

Everyone?  Incorrect.

Naw they huvnae!

Even The National has reported this

I note that the National has a slightly different quote, does not claim that he did it repeatedly, and like Liddle, does not identify who makes the accusations

He was referring to the suspension, which took place only last year. 

Oh, that's right. The incident happened over 6 years ago, the complaint was made over 4 years ago and Grady was suspended over a year ago. How recent is that, compared with (for instance) Chris Pincher, another groping MP?

Liddle didn't mention a 4% swing.  He said that Labour were only 4% behind across the board, which is an entirely different thing.

I'll give you that one. However, as the SNP were at 45.0% at the 2019 General Election, and Labour were at 27.1%, they need a swing of 8.95% to take the seat. Being 4% behind at the moment isn't really that brilliant a starting point for this proposed Labour triumph.

Not sure what you're getting at here.  The SNP are indeed in disarray, and the trajectory is bad for them.  Why should he have to quote the other polls?

Why doesn't he quote polls where Labour are in front? Perhaps that's because there aren't any? 

Looking at Ballot Box Scotland's recent polling figures https://ballotbox.scot/uk-parliament/polling/, I can only see 1 poll where Labour are closer to the SNP than 3%, (the outlier Panelbase poll of 12/15 June) and there are 3 seperate 9% or more leads for the SNP over Labour during the same period, carried out by 3 different posters

Not sure about this point.. I'm willing to go with your assertion that he's wrong if you can back it up.

Here's a screenshot of the current front page of the Electoral Calculus site https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

Assuming that you know where Paisley is, you will see that it is still SNP yellow

This doesn't contradict anything Liddle has said?

No, but it explains why so many SNP MP's are choosing to announce they are leaving Westminster at this time. Liddle implies that they "are very much jumping before the electorate gives them a firm push". I note, however, that the only other MP he specifically names is Stewart Hosie. If you can find Dundee on the map above, you can see that both seats are still SNP yellow. Perhaps you can make a prediction on Liddle's behalf as to who will win the other 4 vacated seats, and will it be Labour in all 4 cases?

Everyone?  Incorrect.

Please name any respected political pundits who have said that her decision to retire from Westminster marks "the end of Mhairi Black's political career"

Naw they huvnae

Ah. Do you vote in the fictional Craiglang constituency. Which ned are you?

At least it partly explains why you link to articles full of fiction

EDITED TO ADD

I had to repost this reply as the first effort didn't appear properly. Apologies.

Edited July 9, 2023 by lichtgilphead

[moses1924]

36 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

This doesn't contradict anything Liddle has said?

I know it's not really the point of this map in relation to the thread but can't see the Western Isles voting Labour even with all the ferry chaos, have they been labour in the past?

[lichtgilphead]

Yeah, the SNP has only held the seat between 1970 - 1987, and 2005 - date. At times, it was considered a SNP/Labour marginal. Looks like it miight be again.

Here'a full list of MP's

 

Edited July 9, 2023 by lichtgilphead

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Quoting Andrew Liddle - deary me - having dealt with the duplicitous shitebag when he was at the Courier I'd trust him as far as I could throw him.

He and the truth are not bedfellows.

[welshbairn]

13 hours ago, moses1924 said:

I know it's not really the point of this map in relation to the thread but can't see the Western Isles voting Labour even with all the ferry chaos, have they been labour in the past?

If I lived there I'd be hard pushed to hold my nose and vote for Angus MacNeil, he's pretty much gone full Alba.

[DiscoStu]

On 09/07/2023 at 22:57, lichtgilphead said:

Even The National has reported this

I note that the National has a slightly different quote, does not claim that he did it repeatedly, and like Liddle, does not identify who makes the accusations

He was referring to the suspension, which took place only last year. 

Oh, that's right. The incident happened over 6 years ago, the complaint was made over 4 years ago and Grady was suspended over a year ago. How recent is that, compared with (for instance) Chris Pincher, another groping MP?

Liddle didn't mention a 4% swing.  He said that Labour were only 4% behind across the board, which is an entirely different thing.

I'll give you that one. However, as the SNP were at 45.0% at the 2019 General Election, and Labour were at 27.1%, they need a swing of 8.95% to take the seat. Being 4% behind at the moment isn't really that brilliant a starting point for this proposed Labour triumph.

Not sure what you're getting at here.  The SNP are indeed in disarray, and the trajectory is bad for them.  Why should he have to quote the other polls?

Why doesn't he quote polls where Labour are in front? Perhaps that's because there aren't any? 

Looking at Ballot Box Scotland's recent polling figures https://ballotbox.scot/uk-parliament/polling/, I can only see 1 poll where Labour are closer to the SNP than 3%, (the outlier Panelbase poll of 12/15 June) and there are 3 seperate 9% or more leads for the SNP over Labour during the same period, carried out by 3 different posters

Not sure about this point.. I'm willing to go with your assertion that he's wrong if you can back it up.

Here's a screenshot of the current front page of the Electoral Calculus site https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

Assuming that you know where Paisley is, you will see that it is still SNP yellow

This doesn't contradict anything Liddle has said?

No, but it explains why so many SNP MP's are choosing to announce they are leaving Westminster at this time. Liddle implies that they "are very much jumping before the electorate gives them a firm push". I note, however, that the only other MP he specifically names is Stewart Hosie. If you can find Dundee on the map above, you can see that both seats are still SNP yellow. Perhaps you can make a prediction on Liddle's behalf as to who will win the other 4 vacated seats, and will it be Labour in all 4 cases?

Everyone?  Incorrect.

Please name any respected political pundits who have said that her decision to retire from Westminster marks "the end of Mhairi Black's political career"

Naw they huvnae

Ah. Do you vote in the fictional Craiglang constituency. Which ned are you?

At least it partly explains why you link to articles full of fiction

EDITED TO ADD

I had to repost this reply as the first effort didn't appear properly. Apologies.

This will be replied to in due course.

In the meantime, yet more SNP misery as the exodus continues to gather steam.

Firstly, following some soul searching, John McNally decides to chuck it for not stand in the GE.  A good move considering he'll more than likely be outvoted.

SNP exodus continues as seventh MP announces they are standing down at next election - Daily Record

Then we have Angus MacNeil, literally "taking back control" by retaking the whip.  No longer will he be controlled by those who are doing zero for independence, says Angus.

I suppose the only question left is..

Edited July 14, 2023 by DiscoStu