Russian invasion of Ukraine

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

The onus is currently on the chump Ukrainian president to change his country's braindead tactics, to make the Russian effort costly enough for them to stop and reconsider. That's how war works. 

How would withdrawal make the Russian effort more costly?

[Bairnardo]

1 hour ago, Newbornbairn said:

Well, we could load the huge Ukrainian army up with modern heavy weapons that will kill Russians in massive numbers.

 

Or a witty gif. I'm easy.

We aren't doing that?

 

Is the money for any expansion you think we should do unlimited?

[Silvio Tattiescone]

30 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

We aren't doing that?

 

Is the money for any expansion you think we should do unlimited?

I think we should give what we can.

[Bairnardo]

6 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

I think we should give what we can.

I think the UK government would contend that this is exactly what they are doing. Now we all know they lie and can't be trusted, but I don't think you are saying anything new here? 

Unless by give what we can, you actually mean give them everything and anything, from Typhoons to tanks to trident armed submarines? 

 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

How would withdrawal make the Russian effort more costly?

1) You can form a more defendable position further west, rather than the moronic insistence that every shithole in Luhansk can be turned into the next Stalingrad (no. of successes so far with this = zero).

2) You can save your forces rather than take massive daily casualties in a completely mismatched artillery duel.

3) You can re-equip your preserved forces for a more balanced engagement in the autumn. 

Allowing the opponent to choose the battleground is an incredibly stupid move and yet this is what happens when Ukraine's leader favour nationalist rhetoric over strategic reality. 

[Todd_is_God]

1 hour ago, Bairnardo said:

Is the money for any expansion you think we should do unlimited?

Of course.

We should all support/demand the Tories shovel more and more money onto a bonfire, and then call them all sorts when the cost of living increases even more because of it.

That's how modern political optics works isn't it?

[vikingTON]

It will certainly be interesting to see how public opinion looks if the 11% inflation forecast kicks in by October and people start having to turn on the heating every night.

[Wee-Bey]

I'm sure the figure is around £2.8 billion so far, we should double it immediately imo.  A small price to pay for an endless meat grinder in the Dobas to satiate my enormous war boner.

[Bairnardo]

I'm sure the figure is around £2.8 billion so far, we should double it immediately imo.  A small price to pay for an endless meat grinder in the Dobas to satiate my enormous war boner.

It's not just the war boners this time though. Its the endless, totally sans-context RUSSIA MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO WIN!!!! stuff.

That's all well and good if you have the appetite or the crushing advantage in military terms, to go and make that happen. But we are not willing, and might not be able collectively in the West without torching the planet, to actually stop them.

That leaves us with what we have... Helping Ukraine. But even that comes with constraints and limitations.

Our method of helping Ukraine has a gaping hole in its flank that is, that Ukraine itself must use the aid effectively. It still has to win the fight by itself but with a bit of sanctioned doping.

We can't sit here and pontificate about doing more/what Ukraine can/can't settle for in negotiation etc etc unless we are willing to escalate what we do. This is why I am asking NBB. If folk want this escalated to ensure a Ukranian win, just say so. Then we can all squabble about whether UK troops on the ground/the risk of massive escalation is worth it.

Coming on here and criticising folk for floating the idea of the possible requirement for Ukranian concessions, or an outcome that doesnt end with Russia scurrying off as Ukraine triumphantly March into Crimea, whilst not actually acknowledging that Russia are in a school bully, we'll take unless someone can stop us situation is just...... Well I really hate the term virtue signalling, but theres a lot of it happening.

[Todd_is_God]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

It will certainly be interesting to see how public opinion looks if the 11% inflation forecast kicks in by October and people start having to turn on the heating every night.

Simple - blame to Tories for not giving more money away. NS will also join in with this, further lighting the fire.

That their simultaneous desire to ensure Ukraine are able to continue slowly losing a war is a massive cause of everything being more expensive will be ignored. Because we must do something.

It could not be more obvious that no-one in the West considered that their sanctions would not cause Russia to back off within weeks, and now, 4 months down the line, they have no option but to continue to cause their own citizens to suffer more and more the economic consequences of a war they have no business being involved in.

The irony being, of course, that if Ukraine (or literally anyone else bar Russia) had decided they were invading the likes of Afghanistan for reasons known only to them absolutely no-one would give any fucks at all.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Todd_is_God

[LongTimeLurker]

The shape of the world order over the next few decades will be determined by what the outcome is in Ukraine. People need to come to terms with the fact that we have moved into a new era and there's no going back to what we were used to pre-Feb 24. WWIII is being fought by proxy right now on NATO's behalf by the Ukrainians.

The Russians appear to have genuinely believed they could win in 3 days with their initial blitzkrieg. Instead they have lost 30-40% of their armed forces in slightly over 100 with the Ukrainian side having significantly more scope for future resupply courtesy of the sanctions that were imposed by western nations. Vlad can probably only keep what he is doing right now going for a few more months. After that things will get interesting...

[101]

4 hours ago, virginton said:

It will certainly be interesting to see how public opinion looks if the 11% inflation forecast kicks in by October and people start having to turn on the heating every night.

Starvation will hit Africa in particular a lot harder and earlier than our heating bills, that said it might be a bit easier to unblock the black sea than solve the reliance on gas.

[LongTimeLurker]

8 minutes ago, 101 said:

Starvation will hit Africa in particular a lot harder and earlier than our heating bills...

Wheat isn't the main staple in most of sub-Saharan Africa so think that's over-stating things. It's North Africa and the Middle East that tend to be most reliant on Ukrainian and Russian wheat.

[Silvio Tattiescone]

3 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

It's not just the war boners this time though. Its the endless, totally sans-context RUSSIA MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO WIN!!!! stuff.

That's all well and good if you have the appetite or the crushing advantage in military terms, to go and make that happen. But we are not willing, and might not be able collectively in the West without torching the planet, to actually stop them.

That leaves us with what we have... Helping Ukraine. But even that comes with constraints and limitations.

Our method of helping Ukraine has a gaping hole in its flank that is, that Ukraine itself must use the aid effectively. It still has to win the fight by itself but with a bit of sanctioned doping.

We can't sit here and pontificate about doing more/what Ukraine can/can't settle for in negotiation etc etc unless we are willing to escalate what we do. This is why I am asking NBB. If folk want this escalated to ensure a Ukranian win, just say so. Then we can all squabble about whether UK troops on the ground/the risk of massive escalation is worth it.

Coming on here and criticising folk for floating the idea of the possible requirement for Ukranian concessions, or an outcome that doesnt end with Russia scurrying off as Ukraine triumphantly March into Crimea, whilst not actually acknowledging that Russia are in a school bully, we'll take unless someone can stop us situation is just...... Well I really hate the term virtue signalling, but theres a lot of it happening.

Firstly - Ukraine isn't losing 1000 troops a day, that's just HB using Russian propaganda figures. Multiple sources put it at around 200 casualties a day, a fair proportion of whom will be lightly wounded and back fighting very quickly. Given the utter contempt shown on this site for soldiers over the years, it's a tad hypocritical for the same folk to be clutching their pearls in mock horror. 

 

The parallels with the 1930s are stark. Our fearless left wing freedom fighters (keyboard division) have been ranting about fascists and dictators for years, but here we have a bona fide totalitarian dictatorship invading another country for no other reason than conquest and to subjugate a neighbour - using the same murderous tactics used in Chechnya and Syria. There's plenty of evidence of war crimes, mass murder, widespread rape and civilians being decanted to camps in Russia. If history teaches us anything it's that regimes like this don't stop of their own volition. Look at Israel. 

Ukraine is holding the Russians in the east - their gains really are pitiful and they can only gain a city by destroying it. 

Their air force is largely nullified by Manpads, their navy now keeps 100km off the coast of Ukraine after the Moskva was sunk, their tanks are largely smashed and hugely vulnerable to Western anti-tank missiles, all they have left are troops and artillery. Their army is built around artillery but drones and better Western equipment will nullify that.  Ukraine is re-arming but Russia can't due to sanctions. 

 

Ukraine can win this, we can help them. 

[Wee-Bey]

Oh no, has someone been disrespecting are brave boys ?

[Todd_is_God]

27 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Ukraine can win this

This is just wishful nonsense tbh.

Define win?

[Bairnardo]

33 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Firstly - Ukraine isn't losing 1000 troops a day, that's just HB using Russian propaganda figures. Multiple sources put it at around 200 casualties a day, a fair proportion of whom will be lightly wounded and back fighting very quickly. Given the utter contempt shown on this site for soldiers over the years, it's a tad hypocritical for the same folk to be clutching their pearls in mock horror. 

 

The parallels with the 1930s are stark. Our fearless left wing freedom fighters (keyboard division) have been ranting about fascists and dictators for years, but here we have a bona fide totalitarian dictatorship invading another country for no other reason than conquest and to subjugate a neighbour - using the same murderous tactics used in Chechnya and Syria. There's plenty of evidence of war crimes, mass murder, widespread rape and civilians being decanted to camps in Russia. If history teaches us anything it's that regimes like this don't stop of their own volition. Look at Israel. 

Ukraine is holding the Russians in the east - their gains really are pitiful and they can only gain a city by destroying it. 

Their air force is largely nullified by Manpads, their navy now keeps 100km off the coast of Ukraine after the Moskva was sunk, their tanks are largely smashed and hugely vulnerable to Western anti-tank missiles, all they have left are troops and artillery. Their army is built around artillery but drones and better Western equipment will nullify that.  Ukraine is re-arming but Russia can't due to sanctions. 

 

Ukraine can win this, we can help them. 

Yeah.... But we already are helping them. So what more were you suggesting when you said "maybe someone should stop Russia"?

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Yeah.... But we already are helping them. So what more were you suggesting when you said "maybe someone should stop Russia"?

Speeding up the delivery of modern artillery would help. 

[Silvio Tattiescone]

4 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Yeah.... But we already are helping them. So what more were you suggesting when you said "maybe someone should stop Russia"?

I was taking the piss out of those cheerleading for Russia. 

[dorlomin]

5 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

It's not just the war boners this time though. Its the endless, totally sans-context RUSSIA MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO WIN!!!! stuff.

That's all well and good if you have the appetite or the crushing advantage in military terms, to go and make that happen. But we are not willing, and might not be able collectively in the West without torching the planet, to actually stop them.

In February Russian launched an operation to over run Ukraines capital and largest cities. With largely Soviet era hand me downs and a small number of prewar delivered anti tank weapons (most of the Russian armoured vehicles were killed by Ukraines own Stugna-P ATGM) the Ukrainians were able to halt the Russian advance on almost all fronts. Their two largest cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv were saved from occupation but under bombardment by Russian artillery. But that stop was pretty much the war "won". Russia's goal of putting a regime in Kyiv that would allow it to be absorbed by Russia over the years was dead. 

The collapse of the two extended drives towards Kyiv in the end of March allowed Russia to reallocate their forces to the secondary objectives for February, that is to encircle eastern Ukraine from Kherson and Kharkhiv. But again fierce Ukrainian resistance not only blunted these offensives but had some success in counter offensives. Those "poundshop Rommels" talking about Stalingrad, that is the part of the operation that actually looked like Stalingrad's Operation Uranus. 

This failure by mid April effectively meant the Russians had lost operational initiative. They then focussed on trying to encircle the defenders around Severodontsk by drives out of Izyum and Popansa. There were a few kilometres of gains here but this also collapsed. 

Now the second largest land army in the world is reduced to trying to use conscripts from Luhansk in human wave attacks to bludgeon their way through a small front of a few miles wide under the bombardment from the largest artillery force on Earth to try to achieve something. "Something" being the capture of Seveordonetsk

Russia has lost the war by any meaningful definition of the word. We have visual confirmation of over 600 destroyed tanks from prewar stocks of 1200 operational. They are pulling tanks out of storage built in the early 60s. 

Russia has lost the operational and strategic initiative. (Tactical, operational, strategic  are level of military planning). That means they can no longer plan and execute large scale operations in Ukraine but only sustain local tactical assaults (so in military jargon they retain local tactical initiative). Ukraine has been on the defensive since day one, other than local counter attacks such as around Kharkiv and Kherson. But they are in a war of attrition where they have the much larger pool of willing fighters. So they are in the process of grinding the Russians down. 

So Ukraine's plan A, survive is all but mission accomplished. Plan b is to inflict attrition on the high quality forces that Russia does posses, certainly the VDV at Hostemel made part of that easy. But they seem to have all but blunted Russias capacity to generate, even brigade sized forces, capable of manoeuvre. The operations we have seen for the past few months have shown they lack the numbers of trained, skilled and willing troops to make the attacks listed above. 

The final phase of the war for Ukraine would be to go over from stalemate to having the initiative by erroding the combat effectiveness of Putin's army and building up their large number of volunteers into an army of their own. A man with a gun is a militiaman. It takes months to train them into being soldiers capable of combined arms warfare. 

The first supplies we sent were guns, ammo and shoulder fired weapons that could be trained in days.

Then we raided the storage of ex Warsaw Pact countries for old Soviet equipment. 

Then we moved to artillery, why, the hard part of artillery (and it is hard) is the maths. Artillerymen tend to be the smartest in an army and so picking up other artillery pieces when you know the hard part is easy. This is where we are now. 

Next is feeding in the more mechanically complex equipment like those nuts German self propelled guns the Dutch are giving them. The Americans have given them a huge huge line of credit and opened their storage. But it will take time for Ukrainians to learn up on things like Abrams and Bradley. But that is the plan and that is how our support dovetails into the way they have fought the war, not by planning mind, made up on the hoof. But the plan is that as Ukraine starts standing up large formations of volunteers, the regulars can transition to the more advanced arriving western kit. 

At this point, for those who are in favour of assisting Ukraine, the reason we have found it so hard to send them equipment is our "way of war" is so different to theirs. We focus on very high technology and very air power dominated war fighting. Our primary anti tank weapon is Apache, our primary anti artillery weapon will be F-16s, Tornados and the like with laser or GPS guided weapons. We tend to be light on artillery and most of it is in advanced self propelled systems like M-270 (the MRLS system everyone talks about) or the German self propelled gun that does trick shots. Its near impossible to get conscripts up to speed on that quickly. 

There is no great insight here, just a summary of what you will read in the newspapers. 

In summary, there is a plan, its just you cannot turn volunteers into decent soldiers on modern equipment quickly. 

Edited June 16, 2022 by dorlomin