Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, FreedomFarter said:

They (German politicians) always cite Fukushima as causing their change of mind on nuclear power rather than Green lobbying.

Germany, of course, being famous for being lashed by Tsunamis...

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

What the likes of Macron and Scholz still don't seem to grasp is that they are not dealing with a bland European politician who craves consensus with Putin but a ruthless street thug who sensed weakness after the fiasco in Afghanistan and has a shopping list of demands that goes way beyond Ukraine. If Vlad wins in Ukraine, it's only the beginning of how he wants to reorder the world in geostrategic terms and his end game is unlikely to be any more comfortable for the western consumer than what is unfolding right now.

Putin can have a shopping list if he wants - the reality remains that he is in charge of a capable but clearly declining power by almost every measurement. Putin's 'grand plan' amounts to at most a restoration of the Kremlin's sphere of dominance to its 1991 boundaries- they can already forget about restoring 1989 or 1945.

While pursuing this, Russia has exposed fundamental weaknesses in its military planning and governance - and has locked itself into a more subservient relationship with China. There will be consequences for that in the future. He has also brought the US and NATO back to the table in committing to its eastern European member states, in a way that would not have happened had Putin waited for the US to complete its pivot towards the Pacific first. This is why the invasion was and remains utter folly - regardless of moralistic claptrap. 

What Western liberals fail to grasp is that managing Russia's overall decline is actually Europe's major geopolitical issue for this century. It is rebounding from the nadir of the Yeltsin years, but it poses zero credible threat to NATO unless its internal political system collapses into anarchy. The current dynamic simply feeds the Kremlin's own narrative for authoritarian rule and allows it to paint the opposition as being stooges of the West. 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Germany, of course, being famous for being lashed by Tsunamis...

Merkel announced her decision to suspend nuclear power plant life three days after Fukushima, citing it as the reason. Whether its a crap reason or not, it's the one she gave. The Green Party in Germany are against nuclear power but the're not in government. There's few environmentalists who'd choose fossil fuels over nuclear, anyway. German dependency on Russian gas must be blamed on the politicians and governments who were actually in power and made the decisions.

[LongTimeLurker]

1 minute ago, FreedomFarter said:

...The Green Party in Germany are against nuclear power but the're not in government....

They are right now in coalition with the SPD and FDP and that's a big part of the reason why Germany's nuclear power plants are not getting turned back on. The CDU sometimes forms coalitions with them in the various landtags even if it hasn't happened on the federal level yet so pandering to their politics is part of what it takes to put a government together in a German context.

There needs to be a massive exercise of public education in western countries to counter the relentless tide of emotionally overwrought Green propaganda that led to the policy decisions that made the EU so heavily reliant on Russian gas to the point that Vlad thought he had them by the short hairs. That was self-inflicted and something that can be reversed again over time.

[beefybake]

6 hours ago, virginton said:

There's no need to do anything in my view. Ukraine is not covered by any formal defensive alliance or even pre-existing ties of dependency on European, never mind US, power. Having repelled the initial, cack-handed regime change effort, Ukraine should be left with no ambiguity about the reality that a negotiated ceasefire and peace deal is required. Georgia signed a peace deal that clearly ran against their ideal interests in 2008 and that has just about held together. 

 

 

It was either that, or be over-run. Georgia caved in when total defeat was staring them in the face.

Nowadays the place is, in effect, being run by a pro-Russian oligarch, Bidzina Ivanishvili.

The 2008 president of Georgia was forced into exile, and was arrested on his attempt to return.

He remains in detention.  The latest news on Georgia's application to join the EU is very bad, due

to the country's backsliding on democracy.

 

Not quite the picture you're attempting to create.

[DiegoDiego]

They (German politicians) always cite Fukushima as causing their change of mind on nuclear power rather than Green lobbying.

Am I not right in saying that more damage was done to people's health and the economy by the response to the incident than the incident itself?

It's like shutting down the rail network and telling everyone to use the bus because of what happened at Stonehaven.

I'm not sure moving to renewables/nuclear is any better than fossil fuels in terms of dealing with unsavoury states. Green technology typically relies on multiple mineral inputs, so if anything you're increasing your chances of doing business with someone you'd rather not.

[welshbairn]

16 minutes ago, beefybake said:

 

It was either that, or be over-run. Georgia caved in when total defeat was staring them in the face.

Nowadays the place is, in effect, being run by a pro-Russian oligarch, Bidzina Ivanishvili.

The 2008 president of Georgia was forced into exile, and was arrested on his attempt to return.

He remains in detention.  The latest news on Georgia's application to join the EU is very bad, due

to the country's backsliding on democracy.

 

Not quite the picture you're attempting to create.

Saakashvili, the 2008 President was a fool who got lured into playing the Russian game plan by the letter. He way overplayed his hand of pals at the Whitehouse.

Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili blamed for starting Russian war

The EU has told Georgia they'll have to wait, bit strange a pro Russion oligarch applying though.

[vikingTON]

43 minutes ago, beefybake said:

 

It was either that, or be over-run. Georgia caved in when total defeat was staring them in the face.

And yet despite this Georgia was able to easily get out of its foolish war, retains its status as a sovereign state and was not in fact turned into an oblast of greater Russia. Which tells us that the conflict is not actually an existential struggle or about 1930s-style Nazi conquest at all. 

To get to that stage requires either Ukrainian nationalist leaders eating an enormous slice of humble pie, recognising the facts on the ground and coming to the table with the shite hand that they've got, or their country gets levelled in a decades-long forever war that Western democracies will lose interest in once the cold weather returns. 

Putin wants Russia's neighbours to be within Moscow's orbit of influence, just like the US has staked out the entire Western Hemisphere for the past 200 years. The means of doing this (the 2022 invasion) are clearly stupid and largely self-defeating; the premise for action is entirely rational. 

Edited June 17, 2022 by vikingTON

[beefybake]

6 minutes ago, virginton said:

And yet despite this Georgia was able to easily get out of its foolish war, retains its status as a sovereign state and was not in fact turned into an oblast of greater Russia. Which tells us that the conflict is not actually an existential struggle or about 1930s-style Nazi conquest at all. 

To get to that stage requires either Ukrainian nationalist leaders eating an enormous slice of humble pie, recognising the facts on the ground and coming to the table with the shite hand that they've got, or their country gets levelled in a decades-long forever war that Western democracies will lose interest in once the cold weather returns. 

Putin wants Russia's neighbours to be within Moscow's orbit of influence, just like the US has staked out the entire Western Hemisphere for the past 200 years. The means of doing this (the 2022 invasion) are clearly stupid and largely self-defeating; the premise for action is entirely rational. 

Drivel.

What Russia, plus separatist region, did in 2008, created the pattern for 2014. 

Now, same again, and direct assault on the whole of Ukraine.

What a stupid argument, and how willfully ignorant of history you are. 

 

[vikingTON]

3 minutes ago, beefybake said:

Drivel.

What Russia, plus separatist region, did in 2008, created the pattern for 2014. 

Now, same again, and direct assault on the whole of Ukraine.

What a stupid argument, and how willfully ignorant of history you are. 

 

Did Georgia sign a peace agreement after losing that war?

Is Georgia an oblast of the Russian Federation as a result? 

A straightforward yes or no answer to those questions will confirm that it is not, in fact, "drivel". 

 

[Detournement]

4 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

All of the countries listed are arguably white countries and Russia definitely is, so why bring race into this in a context where it doesn't really fit?

Iraq, Venezuela and Libya are white countries?

It's arguable in the same respect as you argue climate change isn't real.

[LongTimeLurker]

Don't do the latter so no idea what you are talking about at this point.

[Detournement]

37 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Saakashvili, the 2008 President was a fool who got lured into playing the Russian game plan by the letter. He way overplayed his hand of pals at the Whitehouse.

Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili blamed for starting Russian war

The EU has told Georgia they'll have to wait, bit strange a pro Russion oligarch applying though.

He also popped up as governor of Odessa Oblast in Ukraine after the Maidan Coup which is completely normal. 

He's the Bobby Madden of World Leaders.

[beefybake]

45 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Saakashvili, the 2008 President was a fool who got lured into playing the Russian game plan by the letter. He way overplayed his hand of pals at the Whitehouse.

Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili blamed for starting Russian war

The EU has told Georgia they'll have to wait, bit strange a pro Russion oligarch applying though.

He's a businessman, he wants to play both sides.

He's the power and money behind the ruling Georgian Dream party.

There's been various changes to the constitution, to remove the popular vote.

That and other '.. backsliding on democracy...' matters is also whats causing the EU to fend off Georgia

over membership.  A primary part of what the EU is about is to promote , and develop, democracy.

No one expects East European states that want to join the EU to be perfect at all.

But if they're obviously going backwards......

Edited June 17, 2022 by beefybake

[vikingTON]

17 hours ago, beefybake said:

He's a businessman, he wants to play both sides.

He's the power and money behind the ruling Georgian Dream party.

There's been various changes to the constitution, to remove the popular vote.

That and other '.. backsliding on democracy...' matters is also whats causing the EU to fend off Georgia

over membership.  A primary part of what the EU is about is to promote , and develop, democracy.

No one expects East European states that want to join the EU to be perfect at all.

But if they're obviously going backwards......

I see that you still haven't answered those two very straightforward questions above. 

Meanwhile, nothing confirms that the West is genuinely horrified by atrocities and war crimes from a moral justice standpoint quite like, err, extraditing for summary detention in the US whistleblowers who expose American/British war crimes. As another left-wing, Kremlin stooge observes.

I'd expect Assange to develop a very unfortunate case of the Epsteins in the very near future. 

[Detournement]

An interesting speech as ever yesterday from Mad Vlad. Agree or disagree with what he is saying but he speaking on a level which you will never hear in public from a UK PM.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/68669

Quote

 

When I spoke at the Davos Forum a year and a half ago, I also stressed that the era of a unipolar world order has come to an end. I want to start with this, as there is no way around it. This era has ended despite all the attempts to maintain and preserve it at all costs. Change is a natural process of history, as it is difficult to reconcile the diversity of civilisations and the richness of cultures on the planet with political, economic or other stereotypes – these do not work here, they are imposed by one centre in a rough and no-compromise manner.

The flaw is in the concept itself, as the concept says there is one, albeit strong, power with a limited circle of close allies, or, as they say, countries with granted access, and all business practices and international relations, when it is convenient, are interpreted solely in the interests of this power. They essentially work in one direction in a zero-sum game. A world built on a doctrine of this kind is definitely unstable.

 

Quote

 

It would be a mistake to assume that at a time of turbulent change, one can simply sit it out or wait it out until everything gets back on track and becomes what it was before. It will not.

However, the ruling elite of some Western states seem to be harbouring this kind of illusions. They refuse to notice obvious things, stubbornly clinging to the shadows of the past. For example, they seem to believe that the dominance of the West in global politics and the economy is an unchanging, eternal value. Nothing lasts forever.

 

Quote

Today, our job us to create conditions for building up production and increasing supply in the domestic market, as well as restoring demand and bank financing in the economy commensurately with the growth in supply.

Quote

 

I have already cited this figure: over the past two years, the money supply in the United States has grown by more than 38 percent. Previously, a similar rise took decades, but now it grew by 38 percent or 5.9 trillion dollars in two years. By comparison, only a few countries have a bigger gross domestic product.

The EU's money supply has also increased dramatically over this period. It grew by about 20 percent, or 2.5 trillion euros.

 

I posted about this a few months ago. It's barely been reported on in the West must but be a huge issue for every other country.

Quote

 

So, they printed more money, and then what? Where did all that money go? It was obviously used to pay for goods and services outside Western countries – this is where the newly-printed money flowed. They literally began to clean out, to wipe out global markets. Naturally, no one thought about the interests of other states, including the poorest ones. They were left with scraps, as they say, and even that at exorbitant prices.

While at the end of 2019, imports of goods to the United States amounted to about 250 billion dollars a month, by now, it has grown to 350 billion. It is noteworthy that the growth was 40 percent – exactly in proportion to the unsecured money supply printed in recent years. They printed and distributed money, and used it to wipe out goods from third countries’ markets.

 

All China and Russia have to do is offer the global south a fairer deal and we are all fucked.

[vikingTON]

4 hours ago, Detournement said:

An interesting speech as ever yesterday from Mad Vlad. Agree or disagree with what he is saying but he speaking on a level which you will never hear in public from a UK PM.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/68669

I posted about this a few months ago. It's barely been reported on in the West must but be a huge issue for every other country.

All China and Russia have to do is offer the global south a fairer deal and we are all fucked.

They won't offer a fairer deal but developing countries will quite rightly try to play them off against each other. 

But... Ukraine! is not a relevant argument in New Dehli or most other parts of the world. 

[Highland Capital]

What's the story with this Oz Katerji?  I saw a lot of him on Twitter when the war broke out and he was on Good Morning Britain as well but I seem to get the impression a lot of people think he's some sort of lunatic.  What's the story there?

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Highland Capital said:

What's the story with this Oz Katerji?  I saw a lot of him on Twitter when the war broke out and he was on Good Morning Britain as well but I seem to get the impression a lot of people think he's some sort of lunatic.  What's the story there?

He's an ideologue not a lunatic. His ideology is liberalism and why people get annoyed is that he fails to recognise its major role in causing the conditions which brought about this war. You'll see with him that he always invokes fascism and WW2. Doing that conveniently misses out the last near-80 years of history where his ideology has been the pre-eminent one shaping world events.

Edit: The descriptive versus prescriptive thing probably works with him. When he's doing his war reporting, describing the hardship he's witnessing, that can provide valuable insights to the horrors of war. However, when he's prescribing his political solutions or actions to take regarding the war, scrutiny should be applied to those.

Edited June 19, 2022 by FreedomFarter

[welshbairn]

15 hours ago, Detournement said:

An interesting speech as ever yesterday from Mad Vlad. Agree or disagree with what he is saying but he speaking on a level which you will never hear in public from a UK PM.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/68669

I posted about this a few months ago. It's barely been reported on in the West must but be a huge issue for every other country.

All China and Russia have to do is offer the global south a fairer deal and we are all fucked.

Two things struck me apart from all the economic stuff, moral degradation of the West and a promise to stop auditing Russian firms' books; their birth rate has dropped 13% since April 2020, wtf! And he's only talking about the Donbas special operation now, no talk of removing the Nazis from Kiev which can only be a good thing. He's full of what sounds like excellent plans for diversifying the economy and producing their own parts and tech, but wtf has he been doing for the last 20 years while China stormed ahead? He might be confident about stopping reliance on the West and developing new trading and financial networks with the rest of the world, but how long will that take? The sanctions the West has put into place won't really kick in for a year or so minimum in regards to fuel and raw material exports but how about tank parts and all the other stuff they aren't producing and need to import? Maybe China can fill the void but I doubt it, and they'll probably want a long term lease on chunks of Siberian oil fields in exchange.