TxRover Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 49 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Two things struck me apart from all the economic stuff, moral degradation of the West and a promise to stop auditing Russian firms' books; their birth rate has dropped 13% since April 2020, wtf! And he's only talking about the Donbas special operation now, no talk of removing the Nazis from Kiev which can only be a good thing. He's full of what sounds like excellent plans for diversifying the economy and producing their own parts and tech, but wtf has he been doing for the last 20 years while China stormed ahead? He might be confident about stopping reliance on the West and developing new trading and financial networks with the rest of the world, but how long will that take? The sanctions the West has put into place won't really kick in for a year or so minimum in regards to fuel and raw material exports but how about tank parts and all the other stuff they aren't producing and need to import? Maybe China can fill the void but I doubt it, and they'll probably want a long term lease on chunks of Siberian oil fields in exchange. The other fun is the devaluation of the airplanes within Russia. Since they are now using uncertified parts, the planes may well never be able to be flown anywhere except within Russia (and China?). It may seem somewhat crazy, but after you install a non-certified part in an engine or system, the rest of the engine/system is no longer considered compliant, even if you replace the non-certified part, unless it can be absolutely proven the use of a non-certified part cannot have adversely impacted any other part…something that is nearly impossible. Even an uncertified fastener could effectively trash a component/system/engine due to possible adverse impacts of the fastened part flexing/moving beyond certified limits. The ability of Russian airlines to lease aircraft is a thing of the past until the government changes. The Russian travel system will be nearly dropping back to the pre-flight era for a number of years once a few of those aircraft have “issues” (crash, are damaged beyond repair in incidents, etc) and flyers lose the little faith they have in Russian parts. Keep in mind, the Russian aviation sector supported over 1 million jobs and an estimated $22.7+ billion GDP impact in 2017 alone. Russian air traffic volume has already dropped between 24% and 48%, and isn’t forecast (from Russian aviation authorities) to rebound to 2021 levels before 2030, even with massive Russian governmental monetary input. The forecast includes cannibalization of existing Western aircraft to ground between 33% to 50% of the fleet. These aircraft comprise about 65% of the pre-war Russian air fleet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 interesting read explaining why the limited number of HIMARS systems being supplied by the US, UK and Germany may not be so stingy after all. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 5 hours ago, TxRover said: The other fun is the devaluation of the airplanes within Russia. Since they are now using uncertified parts, the planes may well never be able to be flown anywhere except within Russia (and China?). It may seem somewhat crazy, but after you install a non-certified part in an engine or system, the rest of the engine/system is no longer considered compliant, even if you replace the non-certified part, unless it can be absolutely proven the use of a non-certified part cannot have adversely impacted any other part…something that is nearly impossible. Even an uncertified fastener could effectively trash a component/system/engine due to possible adverse impacts of the fastened part flexing/moving beyond certified limits. The ability of Russian airlines to lease aircraft is a thing of the past until the government changes. The Russian travel system will be nearly dropping back to the pre-flight era for a number of years once a few of those aircraft have “issues” (crash, are damaged beyond repair in incidents, etc) and flyers lose the little faith they have in Russian parts. Keep in mind, the Russian aviation sector supported over 1 million jobs and an estimated $22.7+ billion GDP impact in 2017 alone. Russian air traffic volume has already dropped between 24% and 48%, and isn’t forecast (from Russian aviation authorities) to rebound to 2021 levels before 2030, even with massive Russian governmental monetary input. The forecast includes cannibalization of existing Western aircraft to ground between 33% to 50% of the fleet. These aircraft comprise about 65% of the pre-war Russian air fleet. Aye because Aeroflot weren't already regarded as flying coffins under the good old days of globalised aviation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 6 hours ago, virginton said: Aye because Aeroflot weren't already regarded as flying coffins under the good old days of globalised aviation. They were still possessed of a superior safety record than a good number of major airlines, included a couple of European brands. Within Russian aviation, the homemade models drag the safety rate down a bit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 It's not just aviation where they have an issue apparently. Their rail freight industry relies on western supplied bearings that are now subject to sanctions: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 I see BJ is talking about how we need to be prepared for this lasting years and is worried that there is "Ukraine fatigue" setting in amongst people. Surely he can't be surprised that people are seeing the cost of living sky rocket, realise that the sanctions / the war itself are a major contributing factor to this, and might prefer if Western powers focused more on finding a way to secure a cessation of hostilities, rather than helping Ukraine prolong the conflict indefinitely. Typing "I stand with Ukraine " is all well and good, but we'll see just how many people really do care beyond pontificating for likes on social media when the reality of "standing with Ukraine" is that they can no longer afford to eat, heat their homes, travel to work, pay their mortgage, and go on holiday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 46 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: It's not just aviation where they have an issue apparently. Their rail freight industry relies on western supplied bearings that are now subject to sanctions: I can't go to the cinema in Glasgow and get a train home unless the film starts at half 5 in the afternoon! As long as Muscovites can have an evening meal and a few voddies then train it home they are better off than us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 (edited) Not sure I would post a tweet that can't get the difference between the Czech and Chechen Republics right. Beyond that freight moving along the Trans-Siberian railway is a significant part of what holds Russia together across 11 timezones and is a lot more important than Muscovites going to the cinema. 15 round trips from Moscow to Vladivostok = time for new bearings if the number in the tweet I posted is accurate. If the war drags on into next year they could have a major problem in other words given the logistics of the Russian Army depend very heavily on rail transport. Edited June 19, 2022 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-19/russia-ukraine-war-putin-is-winning-but-the-us-and-europe-must-act Quote Putin May Win in Ukraine, But the Real War Is Just Starting 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leggy Blonde Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 39 minutes ago, Detournement said: His apartment looked like shit! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-19/russia-ukraine-war-putin-is-winning-but-the-us-and-europe-must-act There has been a bit of warmongering rhetoric today tbh - The head of the Army was quoted earlier as saying UK troops "must be prepared for war in Europe" Edited June 19, 2022 by Todd_is_God 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 10 hours ago, virginton said: Aye because Aeroflot weren't already regarded as flying coffins under the good old days of globalised aviation. I recall a book written by a pilot stating that Aeroflot did not deserve the reputation they had. In the days of the Soviet Union they were the world's largest airline and bigger than all the American airlines combined. Also the Russian climate was not great. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 I've flown with Aeroflot and it was a pleasant experience. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: There has been a bit of warmongering rhetoric today tbh - The head of the Army was quoted earlier as saying UK troops "must be prepared for war in Europe" Europe has been preparing for war since Russia invaded and seized Crimea. Here's when they started rearming: UK 2019 Netherlands 2017 France 2018 Germany 2018 Romania 2016 Poland 2019 Lithuania 2015 Estonia 2019 Latvia 2015 Denmark 2018 Finland 2018 Norway 2016 Sweden 2020. Some of that due to Trump telling NATO to spend more, but many countries have gone far beyond the 2% NATO requirement and Sweden and Finland weren't in NATO. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sophia Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said: I've flown with Aeroflot and it was a pleasant experience. Unlike the Belgian carrier SABENA, such a bad experience, never again 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve55 Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve55 Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, steve55 said: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 Maybe HIMARS has entered the picture? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 12 hours ago, sophia said: Unlike the Belgian carrier SABENA, such a bad experience, never again You should be okay, they went out of business around 2001. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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