Sergeant Wilson Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, KirkySuperSub said: The qualification process for the Euros if that happens will take about 3 years! We'll lose to Hanty Mansy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said: We'll lose to Hanty Mansy. Behave, he'll be playing right back on the account of his granny. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highlandcowden Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 18 hours ago, Detournement said: What we are seeing regarding nuclear weapons in this conflict seems like a repeat of the war in Syria where a red line was placed against the use of chemical weapons with great media attention and soon after the red line was crossed. If you believe that either Russia or Ukraine will stage a nuclear false flag the long term radiological impact of that event is irrelevant. Either party would be solely doing to justify a quick escalation in their favour. Everyone will lose in the event of a nuclear escalation. Halloween and the midterm elections in the USA seem very ominous. On the topic of long term radiological impacts a dirty bomb probably wouldn't be much worse than the impact of depleted Uranium in Fallujah and other parts of Iraq. think the only one believing in a ukrainian nuclear false flag op here is you tbh which is quite unsurprising 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 (edited) 46 minutes ago, Dev said: Getting the impression that whatever Russia does will bounce back at it ........ only twice as bad. Ukraine seems to be attempting to foster discontent within Russia in response to what Russia has already tried re The Ukraine. Cannot help but think what sort of War reparations and other matters, e.g. genocide response, will hit whatever remains of Russia after this invasion is over. I may be taking this much too far but I can see that Russia's future is heading for dramatic change. Thinking that the regions which are not essentially white Russian will create issues that may not be overcome this time round i.e. actual independence as groups of "republics" bind together to fight their way out of Russia with active support from outside Russia. No doubt these groups would sub-divide when they believe that they are sufficiently secure - although that could take many years to achieve. Two groups (which have the benefit of direct access to the wider world) could be: North Caucasus (approx populations) Chechnya 1,268,989 Ingushetia 412,520 Dagestan 2,910,249 Kalmykia 289,481 North Ossetia 712,980 Kabardino-Balkaria 859,939 Karachay-Cherkess 477,859 Stavropol Krai 2,786,281 Total: 9,718,298 and Middle Volga Region Tatarstan 3,786,488 Bashkortostan 4072292 Chuvashia 1251619 Mari El 696459 Mordovia 834755 Udmurtia 1521420 Total: 12,163,033 The majority of the population in most these places are ethnic Russians. Even where there isn't there is very little interest in sepratism. I just think this stuff is a complete fantasy. The Jewish Republic? There are more Jews living in Newton Mearns than the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, for example. No doubt more regionalism or even sepratism could emerge from the current war and beyond but I don't think Russia is going to collapse any time soon. it also overlooks very big divisions in those places - for example, Dagestan has dozens of different ethnic groups (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagestan#Ethnic_groups) to just lump them all in gives a false picture of the place. Two of the ethnic groups you put in the Northern Caucausas fought a war against each other in the 1990s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Prigorodny_conflict). Edited October 27, 2022 by ICTChris 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 30 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkay said: Behave, he'll be playing right back on the account of his granny. A non-starter as he's already been capped 4 times by South Africa. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 Significant if accurate: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 50 minutes ago, Dev said: Getting the impression that whatever Russia does will bounce back at it ........ only twice as bad. Ukraine seems to be attempting to foster discontent within Russia in response to what Russia has already tried re The Ukraine. Cannot help but think what sort of War reparations and other matters, e.g. genocide response, will hit whatever remains of Russia after this invasion is over. I may be taking this much too far but I can see that Russia's future is heading for dramatic change. Thinking that the regions which are not essentially white Russian will create issues that may not be overcome this time round i.e. actual independence as groups of "republics" bind together to fight their way out of Russia with active support from outside Russia. No doubt these groups would sub-divide when they believe that they are sufficiently secure - although that could take many years to achieve. Two groups (which have the benefit of direct access to the wider world) could be: North Caucasus (approx populations) Chechnya 1,268,989 Ingushetia 412,520 Dagestan 2,910,249 Kalmykia 289,481 North Ossetia 712,980 Kabardino-Balkaria 859,939 Karachay-Cherkess 477,859 Stavropol Krai 2,786,281 Total: 9,718,298 and Middle Volga Region Tatarstan 3,786,488 Bashkortostan 4072292 Chuvashia 1251619 Mari El 696459 Mordovia 834755 Udmurtia 1521420 Total: 12,163,033 #BetterTogether 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, ICTChris said: The majority of the population in most these places are ethnic Russians. Even where there isn't there is very little interest in sepratism. I just think this stuff is a complete fantasy. The Jewish Republic? There are more Jews living in Newton Mearns than the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, for example. No doubt more regionalism or even sepratism could emerge from the current war and beyond but I don't think Russia is going to collapse any time soon. Russia is also so insanely empty. Most of the state is held together by cash from the central state paying for roads, electricity, railways etc. Most of it *****a forest. Much of it is very dry, only spared being desert by how cold it is to prevent water from evaporating. I do not discount it becoming so broken that large parts are a failed state. But breaking away from the center, outwith a few dense pockets around the Caucasus would be a one way ticket to the bottom of the global development index. Even existing mines would struggle to turn over enough cash to keep roads and rail open to keep goods flowing. Added to the extreme cold in much of it through winter, its only oil and gas state revenue that keeps many cities alive, barely. Edited, ta*ga forest biome seems to be caught by automod. Edited October 27, 2022 by dorlomin 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hillonearth Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, ICTChris said: The majority of the population in most these places are ethnic Russians. Even where there isn't there is very little interest in sepratism. I just think this stuff is a complete fantasy. The Jewish Republic? There are more Jews living in Newton Mearns than the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, for example. No doubt more regionalism or even sepratism could emerge from the current war and beyond but I don't think Russia is going to collapse any time soon. Yeah, the Jewish Autonomous Oblast is the one that stuck out for me on that list - it essentially only exists on paper, as the Jewish population such as it was - it seems to have been a failed experiment from the start - has gradually been emigrating to Israel since the fall of the USSR. I'd read a book by the travel writer Colin Thubron written maybe 20 years ago where he struggled to find any Jews in Birobidzhan, the capital. There'll be even less now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dev Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, ICTChris said: The majority of the population in most these places are ethnic Russians. Even where there isn't there is very little interest in sepratism. I just think this stuff is a complete fantasy. The Jewish Republic? There are more Jews living in Newton Mearns than the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, for example. No doubt more regionalism or even sepratism could emerge from the current war and beyond but I don't think Russia is going to collapse any time soon. it also overlooks very big divisions in those places - for example, Dagestan has dozens of different ethnic groups (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagestan#Ethnic_groups) to just lump them all in gives a false picture of the place. Two of the ethnic groups you put in the Northern Caucausas fought a war against each other in the 1990s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Prigorodny_conflict). I should have said that I dug the map off the good Ol' 'Net. Don't have a note of the source. Probably is a complete non-sense but these "nations" have been battered from pillar to post over so many years. Even white Russians who are not in the Moscow-St Petersburg area of influence aren't so keen on what happens as not all are mini Putins. There's also the help from outside Russia angle which might kick in this time for purely opportunistic reasons/motives. Also, it wasn't so long ago that 8 more populous "nations" reached full independence from Russia. They have been notable by their absence from those actively supporting the current little Russian adventure in The Ukraine. *** edit: The map may have been a Wiki source. Not sure. Edited October 27, 2022 by Dev . 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 2 hours ago, highlandcowden said: think the only one believing in a ukrainian nuclear false flag op here is you tbh which is quite unsurprising Technically, I think he’s suggesting a Ukrainian False False Flag. 57 minutes ago, Dev said: There's also the help from outside Russia angle which might kick in this time for purely opportunistic reasons/motives. Also, it wasn't so long ago that 8 more populous "nations" reached full independence from Russia. They have been notable by their absence from those actively supporting the current little Russian adventure in The Ukraine. *** edit: The map may have been a Wiki source. Not sure. This is the key element. There are nations adjacent to many areas that are less than thrilled with Moscow’s rule, nations only happy to expand…especially China. 1 hour ago, ICTChris said: No doubt more regionalism or even sepratism could emerge from the current war and beyond but I don't think Russia is going to collapse any time soon. it also overlooks very big divisions in those places - for example, Dagestan has dozens of different ethnic groups (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagestan#Ethnic_groups) to just lump them all in gives a false picture of the place. Two of the ethnic groups you put in the Northern Caucausas fought a war against each other in the 1990s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Prigorodny_conflict). The other reality is “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”…there are a number of groupings of potential states that would benefit from a Confederation (see CIS) in conjunction with some less than friends to keep the wolves from the door. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 Russia suggesting commercial satellites could become targets: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Ukraine-war-Free-to-read/Ukraine-latest-Russia-warns-West-s-commercial-satellites-could-be-targets White House response (paraphrased): 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 2 hours ago, TxRover said: Technically, I think he’s suggesting a Ukrainian False False Flag. This is the key element. There are nations adjacent to many areas that are less than thrilled with Moscow’s rule, nations only happy to expand…especially China. The other reality is “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”…there are a number of groupings of potential states that would benefit from a Confederation (see CIS) in conjunction with some less than friends to keep the wolves from the door. It has already been explained why this is utter fucking nonsense and yet here you are, lolloping in with your next drivel hot take. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 We'll lose to Hanty Mansy.Or the pro-biotics of Yaku(l)tia. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 (edited) With respect to shooting down satellites (again Jesus I am sick of this story) Eric Beger had an article out a couple of hours ago. Says what the space community has been saying for months about this shite. Quote "Some commentators said that it was meant as a warning against the US to not interfere in Ukraine," Brian Weeden, director of Program Planning at the Secure World Foundation, told Ars. "I disagreed with that assessment, but even if it was true, that threat completely failed." This is because such a tactic, of a direct-ascent missile against a single target, would not be effective against a distributed network of hundreds or thousands of satellites in low-Earth orbit like Starlink. "They're only really effective when facing small numbers of large, expensive satellites that are hard to replace," Weeden said. Derek Tournear, director of the US Space Force’s Space Development Agency, made similar comments this week when talking about the development of a "proliferated constellation" of satellites to deter attacks. Tournear said SpaceX's 3,500-satellite constellation has validated the concept during the conflict in Ukraine. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/russia-threatens-a-retaliatory-strike-against-us-commercial-satellites/ Among the two main visual imaging: Planet Labs has about 190 satellites on orbit (they do a lot of the satellite imagery you see in the press), these are about the size of a cornflake box. Maxar has its World View constellation, I do not know how many they have but its a few. They have the best resolution among the constellations so tend to be used by the press the most. And SpaceX has close to 3000 on orbit for its communications satellites. So generally the US commercial fleets are way way way to big to bring down with kinetic weapons. There is a 4th, OneWeb with a couple of hundred communications satellites but they are not involved in this conflict. To be fair since Rogozin got the bullet (metaphorically) the Rusians have calmed down with the threats. Ironically Russian ASAT just popped in the news as ISS had to dodge another piece of its 2021 test. I have lost count on the ISS dodges of Russian ASAT tests, the iditios pinged a dead satellite with an ISS crossing orbit. ISS also had to manoeuvre to avoid an older Chinese ASAT test debris late last year. But that was a much older piece of debris, I think most of that old debris field has cleared back to Earth. Edited October 27, 2022 by dorlomin Writing fast, on a technical topic and made mistakes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, jagfox said: Quite funny to be fair. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 Took me a while to work out what was being starred out from dorlomin’s post. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NathanDrake88 Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 6 hours ago, highlandcowden said: think the only one believing in a ukrainian nuclear false flag op here is you tbh which is quite unsurprising Would the Ukrainians not be capable of a false flag backed by the US? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 1 hour ago, dorlomin said: With respect to shooting down satellites (again Jesus I am sick of this story) Eric Beger had an article out a couple of hours ago. Says what the space community has been saying for months about this shite. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/russia-threatens-a-retaliatory-strike-against-us-commercial-satellites/ Among the two main visual imaging: Planet Labs has about 190 satellites on orbit (they do a lot of the satellite imagery you see in the press), these are about the size of a cornflake box. Maxar has its World View constellation, I do not know how many they have but its a few. They have the best resolution among the constellations so tend to be used by the press the most. And SpaceX has close to 3000 on orbit for its communications satellites. So generally the US commercial fleets are way way way to big to bring down with kinetic weapons. There is a 4th, OneWeb with a couple of hundred communications satellites but they are not involved in this conflict. To be fair since Rogozin got the bullet (metaphorically) the Rusians have calmed down with the threats. Ironically Russian ASAT just popped in the news as ISS had to dodge another piece of its 2021 test. I have lost count on the ISS dodges of Russian ASAT tests, the iditios pinged a dead satellite with an ISS crossing orbit. ISS also had to manoeuvre to avoid an older Chinese ASAT test debris late last year. But that was a much older piece of debris, I think most of that old debris field has cleared back to Earth. The flaw in this analysis is that a kinetic kill is not necessary for the satellites they were referring to. The specific reference was for visual observation satellite units, which could be neutralized via a massive laser overload damaging their sensors. The U.S. military satellites are hardened against this, but commercial units are not. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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