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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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7 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

The bit they will find hard to agree on is how Ukraine is divvied up.

Maybe, although it might be the case that all that is required is for Ukraine to recognise Crimea and the breakaway republics.

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26 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

The bit they will find hard to agree on is how Ukraine is divvied up.

Security guarantees in exchange for disarmament would be near impossible I'd have thought. What could convince Ukraine it would be safe to disarm after the last 3 weeks? A promise from Belarus to be more supportive next time? 

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11 minutes ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said:

Maybe, although it might be the case that all that is required is for Ukraine to recognise Crimea and the breakaway republics.

I think Ukraine not joining NATO will be a major part of any deal. Russia will also be wanting promises that the West will loosen the sanctions too. I think Ukraine will want to make sure they still have access to sea ports. Russia will declare some sort of victory and say they have guaranteed the Russians safety in the Donbas and Ukraine can show they fought well and didn't capitulate against a superpower. Then all the big corporate arms companies can make a fortune arming all the former Soviet regions in Europe.

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2 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

I think Ukraine not joining NATO will be a major part of any deal. Russia will also be wanting promises that the West will loosen the sanctions too. I think Ukraine will want to make sure they still have access to sea ports. Russia will declare some sort of victory and say they have guaranteed the Russians safety in the Donbas and Ukraine can show they fought well and didn't capitulate against a superpower. Then all the big corporate arms companies can make a fortune arming all the former Soviet regions in Europe.

I'm beginning to think Russia might be prepared to leave the mess they've made off Mariupole  (about the same population as Edinburgh) to the Ukrainians to tidy up, and forget about linking up the Donbas with Crimea. 

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1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

Security guarantees in exchange for disarmament would be near impossible I'd have thought. What could convince Ukraine it would be safe to disarm after the last 3 weeks? A promise from Belarus to be more supportive next time? 

There is no good outcome for them though so best taking that and waiting for Putin to drop dead, he doesn't live forever. It's easy for me to say that when I'm not involved but it seems the most rational way to go. 

They should have raised the white flag at the beginning to stop all this kicking off, it's their own people being killed, their cities being destroyed.  Zelensky acts like he is in a movie, the speeches he makes, the bravado. 

Maybe I need to be believe in pacifism. 

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1 minute ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

There is no good outcome for them though so best taking that and waiting for Putin to drop dead, he doesn't live forever. It's easy for me to say that when I'm not involved but it seems the most rational way to go. 

They should have raised the white flag at the beginning to stop all this kicking off, it's their own people being killed, their cities being destroyed.  Zelensky acts like he is in a movie, the speeches he makes, the bravado. 

Maybe I need to be believe in pacifism. 

Pacifism is always the way forward.

I'll fight anyone who disagrees

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13 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

There is no good outcome for them though so best taking that and waiting for Putin to drop dead, he doesn't live forever. It's easy for me to say that when I'm not involved but it seems the most rational way to go. 

They should have raised the white flag at the beginning to stop all this kicking off, it's their own people being killed, their cities being destroyed.  Zelensky acts like he is in a movie, the speeches he makes, the bravado. 

Maybe I need to be believe in pacifism. 

What do think would have happened to all the "drug addicted Nazis" in any kind of position of responsibility in Ukraine if they'd raised the white flag? My idea of pacifism doesn't to extend to accepting "We won't kill you if you allow us to arrest your leaders and sympathisers and put our own people in charge." 

Edited by welshbairn
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28 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

So basically give Russia everything they want, disarm and promise not to seek help to stop them coming again? 

 

And they will keep coming. 

What do you propose ?

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Just occurred to me that the reason Russia never refers to Ukrainians as fascists, only ever as Nazis, is because Putin is the closest Europe has seen to an actual Fascist leader since WW2, mini me's like Ceausescu, Milosevic and Hoxha excepted. 

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28 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

 My idea of pacifism doesn't to extend to accepting "We won't kill you if you allow us to arrest your leaders and sympathisers and put our own people in charge." 

^^^ this.  However appalling the impact on Ukraine and its people is sometimes there is no option but to resist and fight.  This is one of these times.  People preaching capitulation need to have a word with themselves.

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I'd have thought the Ukrainians could have pushed for a better deal than that. Get demilitarization and off the table and put NATO back on. Russia have played their card and played it terribly, they're only at the table because they're paying a horrendous price to keep this going and they want to stop. Give up Crimea, Luhansk and Donbas to let them save some amount of face and claim some kind of victory.

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34 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Just occurred to me that the reason Russia never refers to Ukrainians as fascists, only ever as Nazis, is because Putin is the closest Europe has seen to an actual Fascist leader since WW2, mini me's like Ceausescu, Milosevic and Hoxha excepted. 

You forgot Spain and Portugal (a founding member of NATO) m8.

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1 minute ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said:

You forgot Spain and Portugal (a founding member of NATO) m8.

At least they didn't try to invade each other and thankfully have sorted themselves out, it being the 21st century and everything. What a fucking disappointment that's been btw. 

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1 hour ago, Newbornbairn said:

So basically give Russia everything they want, disarm and promise not to seek help to stop them coming again? 

 

And they will keep coming. 

If they keep coming at Ukraine as incompetently as they've done in 2022 then that's frankly a gift that keeps on giving to the rest of the world. 

Costly and geopolitically isolating wars just to take over some more shithole steppe is not exactly a winning gameplan. Russia is a declining power and it is the failure of the West and its latest cadre of armchair generals to recognise this that can get everyone fucking killed. 

Edited by vikingTON
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47 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Just occurred to me that the reason Russia never refers to Ukrainians as fascists, only ever as Nazis, is because Putin is the closest Europe has seen to an actual Fascist leader since WW2, mini me's like Ceausescu, Milosevic and Hoxha excepted. 

No, you're just embarrassing yourself here by trying to put fucking Hoxha and 'fascist leader' in the 'these things are similar category. 

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16 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

I'd have thought the Ukrainians could have pushed for a better deal than that. Get demilitarization and off the table and put NATO back on. Russia have played their card and played it terribly, they're only at the table because they're paying a horrendous price to keep this going and they want to stop. Give up Crimea, Luhansk and Donbas to let them save some amount of face and claim some kind of victory.

Zelensky openly abandoning Ukraine's daft claim to NATO membership last week suggests that they're not as optimistic about their own hand as you are. 

A suitably armed, defensive neutrality is the best outcome for all involved. 

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