Russian invasion of Ukraine

[renton]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

The West rarely uses them unless the cameras are rolling, they're hugely expensive. As George Dubya said immediately after 9/11, "When I take action, I’m not going to fire a $2 million missile at a $10 empty tent and hit a camel in the butt. It’s going to be decisive.”.

I'm not sure that's right. In '99 in Kosovo, only 25% of the munitions dropped by UK aircraft would fit the description of being a precision, targeted munition.

By 2003 that figure was over 80%, in 2022 it'll be close to 90 odd percent, cluster munitions were replaced by Brimstone, and you have stand of cruise missiles like Tomahawk or Storm Shadow for bigger static targets and even the free fall bombs are all laser guided.

Far from any moral considerations, they offer far more scope and flexibility to troops on the ground, and a much higher degree of certainty.

Take the Brimstone missile for example. In the 60s and 70s, the primary anti tank aircraft munition was still an unguided rocket. It was suggested that a rocket firing Jaguar aircraft had about a 20 to 1 chance of taking out a tank. In the late 70s/80s those were superseded by cluster bombs and the calculated success rate against any individual tank went from 20 to 1 to 7 to 1. The advent of the Brimstone missile radically altered the odds. The RAF gives them a 90% success rate of hitting the thing you aim them at. They can be fired in swarms and a Typhoon or Protector can carry 12-18 of them. So, say a Protector drone spots a large gathering of armour, and launches its whole wing load of Brimstones at them. You've gone from 20 to 1, to 7 to 1, to 1 in 10. 

That's a radical step change. Believe me, if the Russians had the combination of precision weapons and situational awareness tools needed to target them adequately, they'd use them. Not to spare suffering but because they'd actually be good at degrading their opponent's abilities.

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, renton said:

I'm not sure that's right. In '99 in Kosovo, only 25% of the munitions dropped by UK aircraft would fit the description of being a precision, targeted munition.

By 2003 that figure was over 80%, in 2022 it'll be close to 90 odd percent, cluster munitions were replaced by Brimstone, and you have stand of cruise missiles like Tomahawk or Storm Shadow for bigger static targets and even the free fall bombs are all laser guided.

Far from any moral considerations, they offer far more scope and flexibility to troops on the ground, and a much higher degree of certainty.

Take the Brimstone missile for example. In the 60s and 70s, the primary anti tank aircraft munition was still an unguided rocket. It was suggested that a rocket firing Jaguar aircraft had about a 20 to 1 chance of taking out a tank. In the late 70s/80s those were superseded by cluster bombs and the calculated success rate against any individual tank went from 20 to 1 to 7 to 1. The advent of the Brimstone missile radically altered the odds. The RAF gives them a 90% success rate of hitting the thing you aim them at. They can be fired in swarms and a Typhoon or Protector can carry 12-18 of them. So, say a Protector drone spots a large gathering of armour, and launches its whole wing load of Brimstones at them. You've gone from 20 to 1, to 7 to 1, to 1 in 10. 

That's a radical step change. Believe me, if the Russians had the combination of precision weapons and situational awareness tools needed to target them adequately, they'd use them. Not to spare suffering but because they'd actually be good at degrading their opponent's abilities.

If you need to target individual tanks maybe, but it's a hugely expensive way of flattening a city the size of Mosul when you can just carpet bomb it with cheap as chips gravity bombs. Same with attacking tank and troop formations in both Iraq wars.

Edited March 24, 2022 by welshbairn

[WhiteRoseKillie]

2 hours ago, virginton said:

I've no idea what your argument is supposed to be here. It is just a Catherine wheel of self-righteous outrage without a salient point. 

Save that pish for Twitter. 

There's no argument in my post - simply pointing out that you are trying your usual "I know better than everyone else" pish on a subject you have no qualification to speak on, or real understanding of.

2 hours ago, virginton said:

Who exactly is breaking up the fight in this very stupid analogy? You armchair chumps by screaming for NATO escalation? 

You are the one who is trying to frame this subject as some kind of binary argument where your opinion is the one which matters because of your superior intellect, and anyone who disagrees must be your inferior. Exactly the same MO as you've used ad nauseum in the Covid thread.

Still, as long as you rack up the greenies, eh, champ?

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Pizzagate init

[WhiteRoseKillie]

2 hours ago, virginton said:

The idea that dropping bombs or launching drone strikes from another continent is in any way more discriminate than field weapons (unless you think that all those Middle East wedding parties were the real targets all along) does not stand up to real world scrutiny. The international order has set rules to persuade itself that war is somehow a precise and manageable conflict. It isn't and never has been in modern history. 

What you are witnessing on TV is the grim reality of any urban conflict zone - whether it was caused by Western or non-Western forces is irrelevant. 

 

I never had you down as a detournement alias, tbf.

If only NATO, the EU, UK, USA et al knew that the answers lay in joining a Zoom meeting hosted from a basement in Inverclyde, we could have all this wrapped up by the weekend.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

I remember seeing all the smart weapons in the first Iraq war, the Kuwait one, cruise missiles going along the road and turning at the traffic lights and going down chimneys and the like. Then a TV crew filmed RAF bombers getting loaded up at Farnham or somewhere, with pallets and pallets of WW2 style gravity bombs. They banned them from filming after that.

I always assumed the footage of "smart" weapons was for use in promo videos at the next arms fair, or by neocon hawks like Bolton to "help them along" when Viagra no longer cuts the mustard.

[Ross.]

21 minutes ago, Detournement said:

There are loads of examples of American charities and churches removing children from conflict and  disaster then exploiting them.

I don't think wondering what precautions the UK state is taking to protect 40 orphans is unreasonable. 

My brother in law is fairly senior in the Kantonal Sozialarbeit lot local to me. They secured 20 flats earlier this week for 34 kids, a few of their parents, and a few other adults who landed here. We didn’t bother asking about safeguarding, we just rattled through the house to find clothes, toiletries, books and toys that we could give them to make sure they had a few things there to help settle them. I feel like a right c**t now for not asking more questions about safeguarding.

[superbigal]

Interesting to see who voted against the latest UN Resolution.

Russia, Syria, North Korea, Eritrea and Belarus.

Wonder who the Commie is in East Africa.

Must read up.

[ICTChris]

14 minutes ago, renton said:

 

That's a radical step change. Believe me, if the Russians had the combination of precision weapons and situational awareness tools needed to target them adequately, they'd use them. Not to spare suffering but because they'd actually be good at degrading their opponent's abilities.

Currently there are still Ukrainian tanks fighting in Mariupol - they've flattened the city but still haven't been able to take out all their opponents armour.  

[WhiteRoseKillie]

4 minutes ago, Ross. said:

My brother in law is fairly senior in the Kantonal Sozialarbeit lot local to me. They secured 20 flats earlier this week for 34 kids, a few of their parents, and a few other adults who landed here. We didn’t bother asking about safeguarding, we just rattled through the house to find clothes, toiletries, books and toys that we could give them to make sure they had a few things there to help settle them. I feel like a right c**t now for not asking more questions about safeguarding.

I'm feeling worried for these kids as well. I mean sure, their home towns are being bombed into nothing, but is there really justification for whipping them over to Scotland so precipitously? Could they not have hung around in Dnipro (or at least Poland) until we got all the DBR, CRB and the like completed for all concerned?

[doulikefish]

At some point the Dnipro kids are going to Leith to watch hibs that alone should raise safeguarding issues

 

Not really the boys an attention seeker 

[Bert Raccoon]

So are we training these Ukrainian orphans as chimney sweeps or just feeding them one by one to Prince Andrew? Has anyone checked?

[renton]

3 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Currently there are still Ukrainian tanks fighting in Mariupol - they've flattened the city but still haven't been able to take out all their opponents armour.  

Exactly why they would want the kind of precision effect weapons the West uses. 

Actually flattening a city is massively counter productive for an attacker as well. All you do is create obstacles and restrict the big advantage you do have - mobility - as well as providing additional cover for the defenders.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

41 minutes ago, Detournement said:

There are loads of examples of American charities and churches removing children from conflict and  disaster then exploiting them.

I don't think wondering what precautions the UK state is taking to protect 40 orphans is unreasonable. 

[Jacksgranda]

4 hours ago, Detournement said:

After 9/11 Dick Cheney was based in a military  nuclear bunker below a mountain in Pennsylvania for a few weeks as part of Continuity of Government protocols. 

If Putin told this guy to put nuclear forces on the highest alert he is probably somewhere similar. 

Somebody get in touch with the CIA...

[Melanius Mullarkey]

Just now, Jacksgranda said:

Somebody get in touch with the CIA...

Think C&A went bust a few years back JG. 

[renton]

23 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

If you need to target individual tanks maybe, but it's a hugely expensive way of flattening a city the size of Mosul when you can just carpet bomb it with cheap as chips gravity bombs. Same with attacking tank and troop formations in both Iraq wars.

Well, I mean my point is that the West now places a premium on precise guided munitions for pretty much anything. Brimstone and Hellfire were designed from the bottom up with the concept of taking on massed tank formations with minimal man in the loop requirements.

Hell, even Western rocket systems are guided - the modern MLRS uses GPS and INS guidance, and in fact tube artillery is starting to use guided rounds - look at Excalibur or the Italian Vulcano rounds.

It makes a lot more sense in terms of concentrating the effect where you want it to go, as well as being able to use that effect far deeper into your opponent's territory. 

Dumb munitions are largely a false economy as set out on my example. Aircraft are still extremely expensive, using them to drop dumb bombs is risky for the aircraft in the first instance and riskier still if you didn't neutralise the thing you were trying to hit, as is often the case.

 

[Jacksgranda]

2 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

In related news, the cost of shares in BAE Systems is up 17% in a month. 

Missed the boat... 

If they missed the boat their systems couldn't have been very good...

[Archie McSquackle]

At some point the Dnipro kids are going to Leith to watch hibs that alone should raise safeguarding issues
 
Not really the boys an attention seeker 

I was wondering whether jokes about making them watch Hibs would be inappropriate or just shite. Thankfully, you beat me to it. [emoji1]

[LongTimeLurker]

4 hours ago, Steven W said:

He done a big eff off 'gig' at the Luznikhi last Friday did he not? 

Yes but he is also alleged by some people in Russia to have several body doubles that sometimes do his public appearances for him who have been given nickames like Udmurt or Kuchma based on what ethnic group or well known politician they are supposed to look like.

 

Probably bollocks but Russians seem to be willing to believe all kinds of weird and wonderful stuff about what their government gets up to. One thing I found interesting was that during a work related trip I made to Russia a few years back the Russians I was with appeared to be completely convinced that Stalin left Moscow when it almost fell to the Germans at the start of the war for a bunker in a city we were in called Samara and were discussing it like it was a generally known fact. To this day that's definitely not the official version of what happened that appears in the history books. When I pointed that out "nobody really knows for sure" was the response I got.

Edited March 24, 2022 by LongTimeLurker