Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Nkomo-A-Gogo]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Snails, frogs, worms, gallic shrug...

I think the French will be fine.

I saw them eating little sparrow sized birds whole with a dish towel over their heads so they could pull the bones out of their mouths. 

 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ortolan_bunting

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

This is true but, given they have just announced measures to effectively ration energy, I would not be surprised to see it begin to gain support when the cold starts to bite.

How do you propose the second bold bit would work btw? Collectively saying you won't pay more than x is all well and good, but when you need the product then not paying the market price isn't an option. Those selling the gas will simply hold onto it knowing that you will come back when you are desperate. And if you still won't pay, someone else will and you'll end up with none.

A cap on the global wholesale market price of gas isn't going to happen, because it can't.

The gas being sold at astronomical prices isn't necessarily Russian - the UK imported zero Russian gas last month for example. The market price for gas is the market price for gas, regardless of where it comes from.

Russian gas isn't sitting in tankers roaming the world for customers, most of it anyway. The vast majority of it is reliant on pipes directed at European countries to sell. They're manipulating supply and price as geopolitical leverage to enable a brutal invasion, I think they should be resisted and that the consumers could also have leverage if they cooperated in enforcing a price cap. There's no reason to treble the profits of Shell, BP and Gazprom without at least challenging their power to do so. The free market shouldn't ride over everything, especially when it's being used as an instrument of war.

[Todd_is_God]

11 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Russian gas isn't sitting in tankers roaming the world for customers, most of it anyway. The vast majority of it is reliant on pipes directed at European countries to sell. They're manipulating supply and price as geopolitical leverage to enable a brutal invasion, I think they should be resisted and that the consumers could also have leverage if they cooperated in enforcing a price cap. There's no reason to treble the profits of Shell, BP and Gazprom without at least challenging their power to do so. The free market shouldn't ride over everything, especially when it's being used as an instrument of war.

You keep saying this, but avoid answering how you think this would be done.

[welshbairn]

24 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

You keep saying this, but avoid answering how you think this would be done.

The pipelines from North Sea gas rigs don't have any choice where they go either, get the countries with jurisdiction to enforce a price cap with the threat of nationalisation if they drop supply. Might need US cooperation but I don't see why only Russia should get to manipulate the price.

[ICTChris]

The Washington Post has a brilliant series of articles about the start of the war, one covering the intelligence failings of Russia and Ukraine in the run up and another covering the fighting to defend Kyiv. Some fascinating details about what happened. One thing that I hadn’t heard until reading it was that Ukrainian military communications were severely hit by a cyber attack at the start of the war, completely cutting off front lines from their commanders. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Russian gas isn't sitting in tankers roaming the world for customers, most of it anyway. The vast majority of it is reliant on pipes directed at European countries to sell. They're manipulating supply and price as geopolitical leverage to enable a brutal invasion, I think they should be resisted and that the consumers could also have leverage if they cooperated in enforcing a price cap. There's no reason to treble the profits of Shell, BP and Gazprom without at least challenging their power to do so. The free market shouldn't ride over everything, especially when it's being used as an instrument of war.

The energy market isnt a free market though - it is a failed market - long before Ukraine.

[Detournement]

8 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The pipelines from North Sea gas rigs don't have any choice where they go either, get the countries with jurisdiction to enforce a price cap with the threat of nationalisation if they drop supply. Might need US cooperation but I don't see why only Russia should get to manipulate the price.

That's crazy commie Corbynism talk. 

[Todd_is_God]

1 hour ago, Detournement said:

That's crazy commie Corbynism talk. 

It's also completely unworkable. Who is going to regulate a price cap on the likes of Saudi or Iranian LNG into Europe? It's sure as hell not going to be the likes of Germany, and the US aren't going to put their foot down and call for a price cap as it would impact their own exports.

Russia will, ultimately, not profit in the long run from spiralling prices as European countries source their gas from elsewhere.

[vikingTON]

12 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The only things that would fix the fuel price problem would be Germany going back to total energy dependence on Russia and opening up Nord Stream 2, or countries getting together to put a cap on what they're willing to pay suppliers.

Well no, the West could simply drop its disastrous economic sanctions on all regimes it doesn't like, which would allow a free market in energy to actually function*. Russia may choose not to supply Europe for political reasons but it will still need to find markets elsewhere. That in turn reduces demand in the rest of the world and allows other supplies to be bought in Europe for less. 

Backing yourself into a corner by  picking fights with several energy producers at once and then mewling about high prices afterwards is not a credible stance. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*As much as a free market for energy actually makes sense, which it doesn't, but that's not going to be ripped up and replaced overnight. 

[vikingTON]

10 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The pipelines from North Sea gas rigs don't have any choice where they go either, get the countries with jurisdiction to enforce a price cap with the threat of nationalisation if they drop supply. Might need US cooperation but I don't see why only Russia should get to manipulate the price.

OPEC has been manipulating the energy market for decades. That's the entire purpose of that cartel organisation. 

[DiegoDiego]

I see the Ukrainian Premier League season has started, but behind closed doors.

I know Crimea had their own league fairly recently. Wonder if it's still going?

[Detournement]

42 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It's also completely unworkable. Who is going to regulate a price cap on the likes of Saudi or Iranian LNG into Europe? It's sure as hell not going to be the likes of Germany, and the US aren't going to put their foot down and call for a price cap as it would impact their own exports.

Russia will, ultimately, not profit in the long run from spiralling prices as European countries source their gas from elsewhere.

No one is saying regulate the price on energy produced anywhere other than the UK. 

And as @welshbairn says if the producers don't like remaining at 2021 profit levels then nationalise their operations as a matter of national security. 

[welshbairn]

39 minutes ago, virginton said:

OPEC has been manipulating the energy market for decades. That's the entire purpose of that cartel organisation. 

The difference is OPEC's aim is to maximise revenue over time which means they want to avoid causing a European recession which would reduce demand. Russia's aim is maximum economic damage to the West.

[Todd_is_God]

18 minutes ago, Detournement said:

No one is saying regulate the price on energy produced anywhere other than the UK.

Welshbairn is quite clearly talking about a price cap on the global wholesale price of Natural Gas.

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Russia's aim is maximum economic damage to the West.

The West's aim is maximum economic damage to Russia so this is an entirely reasonable response IMO.

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The West's aim is maximum economic damage to Russia so this is an entirely reasonable response IMO.

Sure, but if you have an economic war going on you should be using any levers available to counter your opponents moves, rather than saying that the oil and gas suppliers freedom to profit out of fuel poverty should be sacrosanct, as the Tories are.

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Sure, but if you have an economic war going on you should be using any levers available to counter your opponents moves, rather than saying that the oil and gas suppliers freedom to profit out of fuel poverty should be sacrosanct, as the Tories are.

But it's not a case of "The Toarrrrries" is it, because wholesale gas prices across the whole of Europe are at record highs. WM cannot regulate that.

Either the entire continent are "The Tories" or, more likely, your idea is completely unworkable.

[Detournement]

22 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The West's aim is maximum economic damage to Russia so this is an entirely reasonable response IMO.

Aye we are a long way from clean shirt wankers jizzing over sanctions packages now. 

 

[welshbairn]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

But it's not a case of "The Toarrrrries" is it, because wholesale gas prices across the whole of Europe are at record highs. WM cannot regulate that.

Either the entire continent are "The Tories" or, more likely, your idea is completely unworkable.

At a minimum they could impose windfall taxes on suppliers to pay for fuel subsidies. France froze gas prices back in October 21 and capped electricity price rises to 4%, partly helped by fully nationalising EDF, which is still charging full whack to UK households btw, thus the need for concerted action.

[Detournement]

7 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

But it's not a case of "The Toarrrrries" is it, because wholesale gas prices across the whole of Europe are at record highs. WM cannot regulate that.

Either the entire continent are "The Tories" or, more likely, your idea is completely unworkable.

Imported gas is accounts for 20% of UK energy use but the international price of gas in the futures market is being used to set the price for 100% of UK energy consumption. 

That's why the energy producers are raking. Prices are shooting up despite 80% of the market experiencing no significant increase in costs.