Russian invasion of Ukraine

[TxRover]

The interesting note is that even if Russia holds onto Crimea, they have to find a way to replace the 90% of the water supply that Ukraine cut off after the 2014 invasion. Add to that the majority of the power supply into Crimea has historically been from Ukraine, the area is a millstone around Putin, and Russia’s, neck if Ukraine can fully control the head of the North Crimean Canal.

Edited August 23, 2022 by TxRover

[Billy Jean King]

Britain certainly ain't close to blinking going by Heapey's interview on BBC this morning. Seems we are in this for the long term, basically we will back Ukraine militarily for as long as it takes.

[vikingTON]

7 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I'm not sure if "OK Vladimir, if you really want Crimea you can have it if you just pull your army home and leave us alone." would work.

All stirring stuff I'm sure. But meanwhile, back in the real world, the more that Ukraine's leaders harp on about revising the 2014 borders, the less likely that the European support they're relying on is to hold. None of their populations have yet signed up for a forever war over some post-Soviet possessions, and that's before the catastrophic energy prices kick in. 

[LongTimeLurker]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

In what way is it fantasy?

Ukraine now have the weaponry and the support to have a go at this.

Worth bearing in mind that the $40 billion lend lease programme from the United States hasn't even really started yet.

[Michael W]

The West did almost nothing when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. A few token sanctions applied and that was it: what makes anyone think that they will provide Ukraine the firepower that will enable them to take it back, in addition to preventing further Russian advances and repelling them from occupied territory? 

The forthcoming domestic crisises will seriously test resolve. I've said it before, but "Sorry about your energy bill, Russia invaded Ukraine" is not going to hold when people can't afford to heat their home and inflation is running somewhere between 10-18%. Of course this puts us into the territory where the government must do something about it, but they cannot make it all go away overnight and can only mitigate, not eliminate, the problem. 

The Western response in 2014 was inadequate and probably at least partly due to fear that Putin would turn off the gas taps and cause an energy crisis in the EU. The response this time around was much more robust, but the consequences are playing out. Sanctions, sadly, are not a one way street and the sanctioned party will generally retaliate. 

We might not have had the taps properly turned off, but we are here now: energy prices are through the roof and unaffordable for increasing numbers of the population, they're driving inflation and causing prices to spiral, with the consequences of this yet to be properly realised. On top of this, we have a number of EU countries curtailing the use of gas so that they don't run out in winter and preparations for rationing have been made in the UK as well.

The harsh reality is that whilst the war in Ukraine goes in, energy prices are going to remain sky high. Failed European energy strategies in numerous countries have created a dependence on Russia, a country now under a number of sanctions, which will weaponise what it can in retaliation. The results are playing out in front of us and no-one in Europe really seems to have any ideas of how we get out this, short of hoping Russia is defeated pretty soon. Anything prolonging the war is certainly not in the West's interests owing to the impact its having on their domestic populations. There are actions that can be taken in mitigation but they are very expensive and not long-term solutions. It is a shite position to be in, frankly, and I am not seeing any proposed solutions being put forward. 

It would be great if it were only Russia on the brink of collapse, but things are not rosy in Europe either. Similarly, we've all had a good laugh at a number of Russian military mishaps and embarrassments, but I fear there is some denialism of the wider impact of this beyond being a regional conflict. 

Edited August 24, 2022 by Michael W

[Jacksgranda]

On 22/08/2022 at 18:48, Left Back said:

But worth it to get that far from Dundee.

Not if you end up in Dover.

[ICTChris]

37 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

In what way is it fantasy?

Ukraine now have the weaponry and the support to have a go at this.

It's very different Ukraine destroying Russian bases in Crimea using long range missiles and/or drones and retaking the pensisula.  Ukraine is targeting Russian forces in Crimea as part of their attempts to retake territory in the South - Crimea is the logistical hub for Russian forces in that area, the airbases there are the main launch point for Russian aviation and the Russian Navy bases there are used for missile launches in the South.  By targeting these they are degrading Russian ability to defend their gains in the South.

It's questionable if Ukraine have the ability to carry out a counter offensive in Kherson.  Retaking Crimea by force would be many orders more difficult to achieve.

[renton]

44 minutes ago, Michael W said:

The West did almost nothing when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. A few token sanctions applied and that was it: what makes anyone think that they will provide Ukraine the firepower that will enable them to take it back, in addition to preventing further Russian advances and repelling them from occupied territory? 

The forthcoming domestic crisises will seriously test resolve. I've said it before, but "Sorry about your energy bill, Russia invaded Ukraine" is not going to hold when people can't afford to heat their home and inflation is running somewhere between 10-18%. Of course this puts us into the territory where the government must do something about it, but they cannot make it all go away overnight and can only mitigate, not eliminate, the problem. 

The Western response in 2014 was inadequate and probably at least partly due to fear that Putin would turn off the gas taps and cause an energy crisis in the EU. The response this time around was much more robust, but the consequences are playing out. Sanctions, sadly, are not a one way street and the sanctioned party will generally retaliate. 

We might not have had the taps properly turned off, but we are here now: energy prices are through the roof and unaffordable for increasing numbers of the population, they're driving inflation and causing prices to spiral, with the consequences of this yet to be properly realised. On top of this, we have a number of EU countries curtailing the use of gas so that they don't run out in winter and preparations for rationing have been made in the UK as well.

The harsh reality is that whilst the war in Ukraine goes in, energy prices are going to remain sky high. Failed European energy strategies in numerous countries have created a dependence on Russia, a country now under a number of sanctions, which will weaponise what it can in retaliation. The results are playing out in front of us and no-one in Europe really seems to have any ideas of how we get out this, short of hoping Russia is defeated pretty soon. Anything prolonging the war is certainly not in the West's interests owing to the impact its having on their domestic populations. There are actions that can be taken in mitigation but they are very expensive and not long-term solutions. It is a shite position to be in, frankly, and I am not seeing any proposed solutions being put forward. 

It would be great if it were only Russia on the brink of collapse, but things are not rosy in Europe either. Similarly, we've all had a good laugh at a number of Russian military mishaps and embarrassments, but I fear there is some denialism of the wider impact of this beyond being a regional conflict. 

I suppose the point is here, that, in dribs and drabs they already are. Long range precision weaponry will allow Ukraine to degrade Russian logistics and Command and Control. It's the type of campaign the West would usually do with overwhelming air superiority but Ukraine will take longer with just using MLRS and drones.

Russian offsensive capablities appear to have culminated now in the short term, and without a full mobilisation it will take them to the next round of call ups to start to make good their manpower issues, while still being largely unable to replenish their own PGM stocks and first line armour.

I could potentially see Ukraine being able to shift the Russians out of Kherson and the Hydro Dam to the West. If they can continue to attrite Russian logisitics, HQs and keep the bridges inoperable, the Russians may be faced with withdrawing becuase the liklehood of fighting with your back to a river that you can't cross en masse with heavy equipment freely isn't appetising. Or they do stand and fight but Ukraine by that point has enough combat power and the Russians at the end of a strangled supply line struggle to hold.

That's as much as I could see them doing in the short term. If they can get more long range PGMs into theatre, backed up by Western intelligence they could make life pretty rough for the Russians over winter., and grind them down.

However, I don't see an end point where the Russians come back happily to turning the gas back on.  Even if(unlikely as it sounds) Ukraine managed to kick them out entirely, what then? Would the Russians declare an end to their 'special operation'? Even if they did, without some kind of actual peace deal it's unlikely to see an end to sanctions in return for gas resupply.

In the short term, you could use the Covid Furlough type strategy where Government spends the money through borrowing to keep the cap down, longer term though? A huge uptick in heat pumps/imersion heaters? Better insulation on houses and businesses? Move to electrical combination boilers plus a massive shift to Small Nuclear Reactors that would allow the country to shift to secure electrical supplies within a decade?

Anyway you look at it is going to require a massive pivot in infrastructure on a near war economy scale.

Edited August 24, 2022 by renton

[Jacksgranda]

On 23/08/2022 at 09:31, Carl Cort's Hamstring said:

So tomorrow we'll be 6 months into a war I think most of us thought would have finished (with a Russian victory) in a few weeks.

It's interesting to look back over the first pages of this thread to see how some of the most forthright posters on here have been stridently and consistently wrong about almost everything.

Surely not?

[Detournement]

 @renton

Does the fact that Russia are still launching far more missile strikes on Ukranian targets than they are being subjected to not factor into your prediction at all?

They've got a lot more air defence as well. 

 

Edited August 24, 2022 by Detournement

[renton]

51 minutes ago, Detournement said:

 @renton

Does the fact that Russia are still launching far more missile strikes on Ukranian targets than they are being subjected to not factor into your prediction at all?

They've got a lot more air defence as well. 

 

My understanding is that a lot of the Russian strikes are now using low accuracy or even dumb munitions. Their PGM stockpile is severely depleted. It doesn't matter within the context of what Ukraine is trying to do in Kherson if the Russians can lob 40 odd missiles at a built up Ukrainian area, if the Ukrainians can keep a bridge impassible with 6 MLRS munitions. A few guided, high accuracy munitions beat out volume of unguided munitions every day of the week.

Russian air defences aren't designed for fighting artillery, and they aren't really adept for drones either (not that the West is).

Edited August 24, 2022 by renton

[welshbairn]

Norway and the UK are sending a load of these Black Hornet nano drones at $195,000 a pop. Proper SciFi stuff. They weigh 16 grams.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

14 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Norway and the UK are sending a load of these Black Hornet nano drones at $195,000 a pop. Proper SciFi stuff. They weigh 16 grams.

Better hope it's not too windy that day.

[TxRover]

Let’s say Russia ends up status quo ante 2022 attack. That leaves Crimea with 10% of their 2014 required water supply, and they were using 180% of that for people alone. The farming in the area has been devastated post 2014, and with no water for industrial uses, that sector is pretty much static. The only advantage for Russia is Sevastopol, and the question is how much are they willing to rob Peter to pay Paul and support Crimea with infrastructure building out from the east? I suspect that’s part of why Ukraine ends up taking a longer term view on Crimea and it’s return, without saying it out loud.

When Russia loses this disastrous “special action”, if they keep Crimea in any form, the money won’t be there to spend on Crimea, and it will stagnate as a military peninsula and the majority ethnically Russian population will wither away. If Putin gets removed/killed, the chance for the Russians to re-sign a face saving lease on the base in Sevastopol (see 2010 Treaty for Gas) to resolve the issue as very high. It would offer the new Russian administration a face saving answer and allow the Ukrainians to get a relatively easy resolution with little downside.

[Sergeant Wilson]

46 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Norway and the UK are sending a load of these Black Hornet nano drones at $195,000 a pop. Proper SciFi stuff. They weigh 16 grams.

Do you aim to get in a Ruskie's eye or just buzz about to annoy and distract them?

[Alert Mongoose]

52 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Norway and the UK are sending a load of these Black Hornet nano drones at $195,000 a pop. Proper SciFi stuff. They weigh 16 grams.

I'm sure I get the bairn one of those from home bargains - they are getting ripped off. I think it crashed and burned and is lost in the unreachable abyss that is behind the fridge.

[Tight minge]

4 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Have any European countries given the slightest sign that their support for Ukraine is wavering?

A ramp up in production, product lock outs for Navair testing and securing of supply chains. It would appear that someone is looking to be using a lot of missiles/systems in the very near future. 

[ICTChris]

Zelensky and Boris Johnson doing a walk about in central Kyiv today.

 

 

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

That useless p***k has spent more time in Kyiv this year than he's managed at Downing Street. Zelensky must be sick of the sight of him.

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

That useless p***k has spent more time in Kyiv this year than he's managed at Downing Street. Zelensky must be sick of the sight of him.

It's the only place he can go where people don't shout  "w****r!" at him.