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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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1 hour ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

...this could have huge implications for the front line in Ukraine...

Especially when the Russians haven't managed any significant advance for around a year now when Wagner hasn't been heavily involved. If they head off to Africa and Syria who fills that void?

Bigger picture though Putin is now like Gorbachev after the failed coup at the very end of the Soviet Union. Still has the top job but now shown to have only weak control over his "power vertical".

If Shoigu and Gerasimov are being replaced he will have to choose their successors very carefully or he could wind up being publicly humiliated like Gorbachev was by Yeltsin.

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4 hours ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

All three "strongmen" come out of this pretty poorly. Putin isn't as secure as he thought, Prighozin is sidelined in Belarus and Lukasheknko has a potential rival on his turf. No idea how this ends. 

1 hour ago, Musketeer Gripweed said:

I reckon he's been promised the presidency when Lukashenko unexpectedly drops dead in a couple of weeks. Nothing would surprise me at this point though. 

Don’t think it’ll lead to bloodshed…

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2 hours ago, ClydeTon said:

Moscow today certainly isn't a Myth. However, it was important in 1812 for the sole reason that, as you say, Napoleon wanted it.

He put most of his energy into capturing it, and after the city burned and the winter hit, he was left with no choice but to retreat. Moscow was, essentially, used as a massive trap. So for the Russian war plan, it was incredibly important. However, it wouldn't have seen Russia fall as the Tsar and Nobles generally stayed in Petrograd.

The days of "capture the capital,win the war" are long gone

It wasn't the case in 1812,it wouldn't have been the case in 1941 if the Germans had managed it&it wouldn't be the case nowadays.

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2 hours ago, doulikefish said:

That what the bots on Twitter are saying...it's all been an elaborate ruse so Wagner can move to Belarus so they can take kiev from there 

Putin bots? Wagner bots? Think Wagner were responsible for a lot of these Rusky troll farms. Maybe a joint effort to dismiss the clusterfuck of a rebellion to a cunning plan status.

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It's truly tragic than any 16 y.o. in this most civilised continent has to suffer such a fate.

However, they are also heroes for doing what they did. And they shouldn't be forgotten. I'm sure they won't.

On another note, it was quite frustrating to see people in the replies to that tweet blaming "all Russians" for this war - despite a large portion of them being regular civilians who are anti-war. Tens of thousands have lost family. Mainly because of conscription - Putin hasn't sent many of his properly trained men in. The only people at fault for this are the Kremlin and Wagner. Even at that, Wagner are just doing contract work...

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9 minutes ago, ClydeTon said:

It's truly tragic than any 16 y.o. in this most civilised continent has to suffer such a fate.

 

Which continent was it that colonised much of the world, started 2 world wars and continues to force its murderous foreign policy on the global south to this day? 

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30 minutes ago, MazzyStar said:

Which continent was it that colonised much of the world, started 2 world wars and continues to force its murderous foreign policy on the global south to this day? 

Antarctica? 

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52 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Meanwhile a 16 year old in occupied Berdyansk killed two Russian soldiers before being killed himself. Tigran Oganesyan filmed his last words.

 

He was Armenian heritage going by his name, Oganesyan. Ukraine was home to the 5th highest number of Armenian diaspora by nation prior to the 2022 invasion. Most Armenian-Ukrainians lived in the east so many will've been displaced or killed now. 

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1 hour ago, ClydeTon said:

The only people at fault for this are the Kremlin and Wagner. Even at that, Wagner are just doing contract work...

Murderer isn't an acceptable career choice. The concept of Private Military Contractors is almost laughable its so dystopian. Bringing the market to the field of mass murder, a new frontier for capitalism. Prigozhin following in the slipstream of innovative entrepreneur Erik Prince.

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1 hour ago, MazzyStar said:

Which continent was it that colonised much of the world, started 2 world wars and continues to force its murderous foreign policy on the global south to this day? 

The foreign policy part can be equally attributed to North America, particularly the US.

Europe has no clean hands, however on this continent we should be beyond wars as brutal as Ukraine's.

 

7 minutes ago, FreedomFarter said:

Murderer isn't an acceptable career choice. The concept of Private Military Contractors is almost laughable its so dystopian. Bringing the market to the field of mass murder, a new frontier for capitalism. Prigozhin following in the slipstream of innovative entrepreneur Erik Prince.

The reason I separated Wagner as a PMC is simple: they don't have a moral ground to base themselves on. They operate for money, they don't stop for a second to think of morals.

Ironically, Mercenaries are illegal in Russia...

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17 minutes ago, ClydeTon said:

The reason I separated Wagner as a PMC is simple: they don't have a moral ground to base themselves on. They operate for money, they don't stop for a second to think of morals.

Ironically, Mercenaries are illegal in Russia...

The existence of PMCs makes war more likely because governments prefer to use them over their own state military for reasons such as:

- It's a way of shoveling public money into private hands and any time that is being done, corrupt government members can take slices of the deals for themselves.

- It gives nation states plausible deniability. "It wasn't us, it was that PMC over there". UAE has used both Erik Prince's and Yevgeny Prigozhin's PMCs, even in tandem together in Libya, yet faces no repercussions from it due to the plausible deniability. No sanctions or other punishments for UAE 

- It prevents the troops coming home in body bags media phenomenon which is bad for a governments popularity.

There'll be other reasons too but I'm not informed enough to go into it any further. We can see, though, that the very existence of PMCs makes governments more likely to pursue imperialist military choices. So Wagner being available definitely factored into the Kremlin's decision to invade Ukraine and therefore we can blame Wagner for the invasion (as well as all their atrocities since it commenced).

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