Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ICTChris]

Lukashenko is a horrible fucker whose regime fixed elections, used violence and torture on protesters.  But this is right, there's something amusing about him giving this really weird, elongated update on what happened, like your grandad telling you about his trip to the doctor in far too much detail

 

All these security guys bored as f**k listening to him go on and on and on.

[Newbornbairn]

10 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Lukashenko is a horrible fucker whose regime fixed elections, used violence and torture on protesters.  But this is right, there's something amusing about him giving this really weird, elongated update on what happened, like your grandad telling you about his trip to the doctor in far too much detail

 

All these security guys bored as f**k listening to him go on and on and on.

Is he wearing onions on his belt?

[KirkySuperSub]

59 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

Just spotted a news article with a photo of Lukashenko. Fucking hell, he's a dead ringer for Scotty from Star Trek.

I see him more as a cross between Willie Thorne and Rene from 'Allo 'Allo.

[welshbairn]

I could see a few of Wagner's "little green men" being sent into the Baltic states to stir up the Russian speakers.

[Newbornbairn]

32 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I could see a few of Wagner's "little green men" being sent into the Baltic states to stir up the Russian speakers.

Think NATO might take a view on that.

[welshbairn]

20 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Think NATO might take a view on that.

I'm meaning undercover in civvies, like they did in 2014 in Donbass, get a bit of rioting going.

[ICTChris]

The Baltic states are all NATO members and are also all functioning states - if you send mercenaries into them, even if there were still any semblance of plausible deniability, they would immediately be arrested.

[ICTChris]

14 hours ago, FreedomFarter said:

Another gratuitous massacre of civilians. Terrorising and murdering innocent people uninvolved in the fighting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66031342

Ten confirmed deaths now, incuding 14 year old twin girls.  Babies were injured in the attack.  Horrific footage.  It now seems that an Iskender missile was used in the attack rather than an s-300 which was previously blamed.  This is significant as Iskenders are very accurate, implying that targeting a high profile restaurant was the plan.  The strike was a year to the day on from Russia attacking a shopping centre in Kremenchuk, killing 18 civiians.  In APril last year Russian forces attacked the railway in Kramatorsk, killing 60 people who were evacuating the fighting.

Every time Russia has a setback in the war they do this.  Either through malice or incompentence the Russian military repeatedly attacks and kills civilians.  

 

There's talk on Russian channels of a number of high profile commanders being removed due to tacit backing for the Wagner run on Moscow.  Still lots of confusion in the air.

[welshbairn]

13 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The Baltic states are all NATO members and are also all functioning states - if you send mercenaries into them, even if there were still any semblance of plausible deniability, they would immediately be arrested.

I'm talking spies infiltrating malcontent Russian speaking groups, along with cyber stuff. That's how it started in Donbass, it wasn't that obvious until actual soldiers on holiday with their tanks arrived.

[Salvo Montalbano]

Interesting that Lukasheknko was effectively reducing Putin to the more junior in the relationship; in the past he's very much seen as being in that role and has only ever really tried to make out that he is Putin's equal. Clearly feels emboldened by the whole thing.

[GNU_Linux]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Lukashenko is a horrible fucker whose regime fixed elections, used violence and torture on protesters.  But this is right, there's something amusing about him giving this really weird, elongated update on what happened, like your grandad telling you about his trip to the doctor in far too much detail

 

All these security guys bored as f**k listening to him go on and on and on.

 

 

[jagfox]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Ten confirmed deaths now, incuding 14 year old twin girls.  Babies were injured in the attack.  Horrific footage.  It now seems that an Iskender missile was used in the attack rather than an s-300 which was previously blamed.  This is significant as Iskenders are very accurate, implying that targeting a high profile restaurant was the plan.  The strike was a year to the day on from Russia attacking a shopping centre in Kremenchuk, killing 18 civiians.  In APril last year Russian forces attacked the railway in Kramatorsk, killing 60 people who were evacuating the fighting.

Every time Russia has a setback in the war they do this.  Either through malice or incompentence the Russian military repeatedly attacks and kills civilians.  

 

There's talk on Russian channels of a number of high profile commanders being removed due to tacit backing for the Wagner run on Moscow.  Still lots of confusion in the air.

I remember reading an article that they have a team who select the targets for their missile strikes. 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I'm talking spies infiltrating malcontent Russian speaking groups, along with cyber stuff. That's how it started in Donbass, it wasn't that obvious until actual soldiers on holiday with their tanks arrived.

Given the lack of any reasonably organized group of malcontent Russians in the Baltics, versus active groups in eastern Ukraine before 2014, it would leave the infiltrated rabble rousers vulnerable to arrest. You get one of them willing to talk to police, and you’ve provoked an international incident with NATO, if that talker has any documents or other evidence, NATO Article 4 is immediately in play. While Article 4 is strictly consultive, if it was a proven attempt to attack the Baltics and foment revolt, the result would surely be less than favorable to Putin and Russia.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, TxRover said:

Given the lack of any reasonably organized group of malcontent Russians in the Baltics

This isn't true. There are regular demonstrations, especially in Latvia but in all three, usually when they rip down Soviet era statues or memorials or when they change the law to exclude Russian only speakers from Government jobs, for example. Cyber attacks are a regular occurrence, most recently against Estonia. The threshold for invoking Article 4 and declaring war on Russia is necessarily very high, I'm not claiming Russia would try what they did in Crimea or Donbass in 2014 but they're well practised in sowing discord and backing right wing nationalists across Europe in the hope of undermining liberal democracy, which is well below the threshold of a serious NATO response given the sanctions on Russia are already close to maximum. A bit of internal havoc in the Baltics with the security forces going in heavy handed on Russian speakers in response to some protest would reinforce popular support within Russia for hardline policies from the Kremlin vis-a-vis Ukraine and possibly Putin with elections due next Spring.

[TxRover]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

This isn't true. There are regular demonstrations, especially in Latvia but in all three, usually when they rip down Soviet era statues or memorials or when they change the law to exclude Russian only speakers from Government jobs, for example. Cyber attacks are a regular occurrence, most recently against Estonia. The threshold for invoking Article 4 and declaring war on Russia is necessarily very high, I'm not claiming Russia would try what they did in Crimea or Donbass in 2014 but they're well practised in sowing discord and backing right wing nationalists across Europe in the hope of undermining liberal democracy, which is well below the threshold of a serious NATO response given the sanctions on Russia are already close to maximum. A bit of internal havoc in the Baltics with the security forces going in heavy handed on Russian speakers in response to some protest would reinforce popular support within Russia for hardline policies from the Kremlin vis-a-vis Ukraine and possibly Putin with elections due next Spring.

There is a huge difference between protest groups and an armed revolutionary group in a country that was sufficiently organized to eventually seize government buildings. Supporting Reich-wing parties and such is well accepted Russian practice due to various laws on freedom in the NATO realm. Also, the Donbas was about 40% ethnic Russian, where the Baltic top out around 25%.

Russia and NATO have been playing cyber games for years. Article 4 only allows a call to consult and requires unanimous agreement for action, and doesn’t require any particular action.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, TxRover said:

There is a huge difference between protest groups and an armed revolutionary group in a country that was sufficiently organized to eventually seize government buildings. Supporting Reich-wing parties and such is well accepted Russian practice due to various laws on freedom in the NATO realm. Also, the Donbas was about 40% ethnic Russian, where the Baltic top out around 25%.

Russia and NATO have been playing cyber games for years. Article 4 only allows a call to consult and requires unanimous agreement for action, and doesn’t require any particular action.

The extreme Russian nationalists in the Donbass were a tiny ineffectual group that nobody took seriously until Russia sent their spooks in to organise and arm them. Any Russian involvement in the Baltics would be much less blatant and with far less ambition, just the hope of stirring things up a bit for the folks back home, and getting a bit of revenge on NATO. 

[TxRover]

9 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The extreme Russian nationalists in the Donbass were a tiny ineffectual group that nobody took seriously until Russia sent their spooks in to organise and arm them. Any Russian involvement in the Baltics would be much less blatant and with far less ambition, just the hope of stirring things up a bit for the folks back home, and getting a bit of revenge on NATO. 

Better done with financial and technical support than actual illegals, in that case, fair enough.

[Guest]

The 2014 political rupture in Ukraine did broadly fall along a west-east line. However that was far less due to ethnicity or mother tongue and much more to do with the very different economic arrangements of the two regions. There isn't the potential for such a cleavage in any of the Baltic states as each of their economies are far more integrated and whole.

Then there's the huge gulf in poverty between 2014 Ukraine and current Lat/Est/Lit. To pick up a gun and start firing it, you have to have nothing going in your life and therefore nothing to lose. Such deprivation isn't present in the Baltic states.

Russia could and probably already do fund and support groups of ethnic Russian arseholes in the Baltic states but there's not the material conditions in those nations for any militancy to arise. 

[Salt n Vinegar]

7 hours ago, scottsdad said:

Just spotted a news article with a photo of Lukashenko. Fucking hell, he's a dead ringer for Scotty from Star Trek.

You are in danger of unleashing internet hell on yourself. The Trekkies/Trekkers will have your guts for Klingon necklaces.

[tamthebam]

8 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Lukashenko is a horrible fucker whose regime fixed elections, used violence and torture on protesters.  But this is right, there's something amusing about him giving this really weird, elongated update on what happened, like your grandad telling you about his trip to the doctor in far too much detail

 

All these security guys bored as f**k listening to him go on and on and on.

As Suzanne Vega sang:

"His name is Luka, you've been pushed from a window on the second floor.."