Energy Prices

[Michael W]

On 02/04/2022 at 12:31, Todd_is_God said:

Aye, but he paid people to sit on the couch for 18 months so he's alright really.

He had the easiest job in government the last two years, dishing out freebies. It was always going to be a bump when the covid spending and the consequences of lockdown measures came home to roost, although with Ukraine it's a lot worse than expected.

Unsurprisingly, brand Sunak is tanking. 

[Andre Bo]

34 minutes ago, Michael W said:

He had the easiest job in government the last two years, dishing out freebies. It was always going to be a bump when the covid spending and the consequences of lockdown measures came home to roost, although with Ukraine it's a lot worse than expected.

Unsurprisingly, brand Sunak is tanking. 

He's a smug and obscenely rich Thatcherite twat placed in politics by his father-in-law. He made his personal fortune by profiting from the financial crisis of 2008. He didn't want lockdown and he didn't want furlough. The treasury made that happen in spite of him. He's the single biggest enemy of ordinary folk in this country right now. Steve Baker is awful but a lot of people actually recognise and like Sunak. He is the deadly snake that needs decapitated.

Edited April 3, 2022 by Andre Bo

[SlipperyP]

Petrol down from 40.92 to 39.36 - living the dream.

[Michael W]

7 hours ago, Andre Bo said:

He's a smug and obscenely rich Thatcherite twat placed in politics by his father-in-law. He made his personal fortune by profiting from the financial crisis of 2008. He didn't want lockdown and he didn't want furlough. The treasury made that happen in spite of him. He's the single biggest enemy of ordinary folk in this country right now. Steve Baker is awful but a lot of people actually recognise and like Sunak. He is the deadly snake that needs decapitated.

People liked Sunak because he was front and centre of popular policies regardless of his views on them. Most people's interests are, at best, passive where these things are concerned, after all, and no-one knew who he was either. The idea of furlough and lockdown was anaemia to the entire Tory party never mind Sunak, but it went ahead anyway out of necessity and Sunak, as a newly-appointed Chancellor, got the benefit of it. Very much right place and right time. It shows again the judgement of Boris Johnson that he let Sunak benefit from it in the way he did, but that's another matter. 

His popularity was always temporary and going to plummet when reality kicked in. Circumstances have brought this on quicker than I thought it would, granted. The Government might not have caused gas/oil/a number of other things to rise in price, but their actions on it are judged. "Ah, but Russia invaded Ukraine, you have to pay more" isn't going to wash. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Michael W

[Andre Bo]

6 hours ago, Michael W said:

People liked Sunak because he was front and centre of popular policies regardless of his views on them. Most people's interests are, at best, passive where these things are concerned, after all, and no-one knew who he was either. The idea of furlough and lockdown was anaemia to the entire Tory party never mind Sunak, but it went ahead anyway out of necessity and Sunak, as a newly-appointed Chancellor, got the benefit of it. Very much right place and right time. It shows again the judgement of Boris Johnson that he let Sunak benefit from it in the way he did, but that's another matter. 

His popularity was always temporary and going to plummet when reality kicked in. Circumstances have brought this on quicker than I thought it would, granted. The Government might not have caused gas/oil/a number of other things to rise in price, but their actions on it are judged. "Ah, but Russia invaded Ukraine, you have to pay more" isn't going to wash. 

Sunak actually campaigned in the cabinet against Covid restrictions and brought in some of the Great Barrington Declaration crowd to do a presentation. It is well established that Eat Out To Help Out was responsible for the second wave of Covid. He was busy grinning and serving meals without a mask for publicity. His actions around the energy crisis have prioritised protecting 'investment' (rich people) at the expense of much of the public freezing or starving. The branding job done on Sunak has been unbelievable but my hope is that will not be enough. Everything is about money for a man like him. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Andre Bo

[Michael W]

19 minutes ago, Andre Bo said:

Sunak actually campaigned in the cabinet against Covid restrictions and brought in some of the Great Barrington Declaration crowd to do a presentation. It is well established that Eat Out To Help Out was responsible for the second wave of Covid. He was busy grinning and serving meals without a mask for publicity. His actions around the energy crisis have prioritised protecting 'investment' (rich people) at the expense of much of the public freezing or starving. The branding job done on Sunak has been unbelievable but my hope is that will not be enough. Everything is about money for a man like him. 

The branding job works when people have money in their pockets. He was just the face of it at the start and so took the plaudits. Credit he didn't deserve? Yes. But that's politics - events can make you, but can equally sink you too. 

When people don't have money in their pocket they see through it and the Chancellor's popularity tanks, which it has. He isn't popular like he was and we haven't even seen the worst yet. Fuel prices and prices increases are biting, but it's energy that's going to be the real kicker and that one is just starring. DDs up for people and more and more people will gradually be impacted by this as fixed tariffs start to expire. 

A small Council Tax refund, this "energy bill loan" of £150 and a surely temporary reduction of 5p in fuel duty (saving around £2.50 a tank if fully passed on) isn't going to cut it. The only genuinely good policy was the increase in the NI threshold, which does help many of the people it needs to the most, but it's hard to see that that will be enough. And indeed it doesn't help the very lowest earners, or those on benefits. 

Brand Sunak has been tarnished. He might be the ideological darling of the Tory party, but that doesn't win elections. His days of mass appeal are certainly over unless there is drastic change. 

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Michael W

[Oystercatcher]

[welshbairn]

Sunak's a 41 year old who looks 14, women go for that until they find out he's an evil spoilt brat.

[Andre Bo]

34 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

You appear to be on the wrong thread.

Read my last sentence. It's part of a broader point. He won't move in any significant way on the cost of living crisis unless he's absolutely forced to.

 

29 minutes ago, Michael W said:

The branding job works when people have money in their pockets. He was just the face of it at the start and so took the plaudits. Credit he didn't deserve? Yes. But that's politics - events can make you, but can equally sink you too. 

When people don't have money in their pocket they see through it and the Chancellor's popularity tanks, which it has. He isn't popular like he was and we haven't even seen the worst yet. Fuel prices and prices increases are biting, but it's energy that's going to be the real kicker and that one is just starring. DDs up for people and more and more people will gradually be impacted by this as fixed tariffs start to expire. 

A small Council Tax refund, this "energy bill loan" of £150 and a surely temporary reduction of 5p in fuel duty (saving around £2.50 a tank if fully passed on) isn't going to cut it. The only genuinely good policy was the increase in the NI threshold, which does help many of the people it needs to the most, but it's hard to see that that will be enough. And indeed it doesn't help the very lowest earners, or those on benefits. 

Brand Sunak has been tarnished. He might be the ideological darling of the Tory party, but that doesn't win elections. His days of mass appeal are certainly over unless there is drastic change. 

 

Here's hoping.

[Iminavest]

[Michael W]

On 04/04/2022 at 14:05, Michael W said:

The only genuinely good policy was the increase in the NI threshold, which does help many of the people it needs to the most, but it's hard to see that that will be enough. And indeed it doesn't help the very lowest earners, or those on benefits.  

 

Just noticed today that this isn't immediate and only kicks in from July. Standard half-arsed stuff. 

[scottsdad]

2 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Just noticed today that this isn't immediate and only kicks in from July. Standard half-arsed stuff. 

Yep. 3 months of hikes for everyone. 

[Detournement]

The big fat paedo looking guy from the Bank Of International Settlements says inflation is going to run on for years. 

[gaz5]

The big fat paedo looking guy from the Bank Of International Settlements says inflation is going to run on for years. 

In other news, water is wet. [emoji1787]

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[superbigal]

Our Nicola who spent a few hundred million protecting a couple of hundred ship building jobs.
However a new nuclear energy plant that would likely create 1000s of jobs is a 100% no.

[Busta Nut]

Have we planned a riot yet about the cost of living?

[Detournement]

12 hours ago, gaz5 said:

In other news, water is wet.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

3 years of inflation at current in levels in Western Europe will cause huge social problems. The BoE have said this won't happen, however they pretty much say whatever suits the Government. 

Big Jabba from BIS is basically saying get ready for chaos.

 

[gaz5]

3 years of inflation at current in levels in Western Europe will cause huge social problems. The BoE have said this won't happen, however they pretty much say whatever suits the Government. 
Big Jabba from BIS is basically saying get ready for chaos.
 

Yeah, they (like the FED) say a lot of things and I don't have too much faith in either of them when they do.

They've all been saying inflation "wouldn't be an issue", when anyone sane looking at the figures and projections (particularly supply side) could see it was going to run rampant in 22.

I agree with you, it's going to be an uncomfortable few years for everyone, unfortunately. We're in a situation where those in control of economies globally are having to decide how they pay the piper for nearly 2 decades of reckless spending.

The interest rate rises announced (3x 25bp here and 4 in the States) is very much closing the stable door after the horse has bolted IMO. That won't touch the sides of the issue. Might not even be enough to halt it.

But to go any harder than that would undoubtedly pop what looks like the biggest asset bubble in history, one which their piss poor monetary policy has caused, for the most part.

And, call me an old cynic, but at this point it's going to be bad either way and all higher rate raises will do is hurt their mates more. Tories in particular don't have a great record of putting the people first.

Either way, the end of Q2 is going to be interesting.

[Detournement]

36 minutes ago, gaz5 said:

Yeah, they (like the FED) say a lot of things and I don't have too much faith in either of them when they do.

They've all been saying inflation "wouldn't be an issue", when anyone sane looking at the figures and projections (particularly supply side) could see it was going to run rampant in 22.

I agree with you, it's going to be an uncomfortable few years for everyone, unfortunately. We're in a situation where those in control of economies globally are having to decide how they pay the piper for nearly 2 decades of reckless spending.

The interest rate rises announced (3x 25bp here and 4 in the States) is very much closing the stable door after the horse has bolted IMO. That won't touch the sides of the issue. Might not even be enough to halt it.

But to go any harder than that would undoubtedly pop what looks like the biggest asset bubble in history, one which their piss poor monetary policy has caused, for the most part.

And, call me an old cynic, but at this point it's going to be bad either way and all higher rate raises will do is hurt their mates more. Tories in particular don't have a great record of putting the people first.

Either way, the end of Q2 is going to be interesting.

Interest rates going up won't reduce inflation at all. There is no connection between the cost of credit and current prices.

As i've said before a few times the inflation is coming from the decision to shut down large parts of the global economy for 2 years and price gouging by the monopolist owners of corporations who are making record profits. Squeezing the purchasing power of the proles is obviously the intention here, letting the stock market burst would lead to a political disaster given that most governments rely on pensioners to get elected so I would guess that won't happen.

[gaz5]

Interest rates going up won't reduce inflation at all. There is no connection between the cost of credit and current prices.
As i've said before a few times the inflation is coming from the decision to shut down large parts of the global economy for 2 years and price gouging by the monopolist owners of corporations who are making record profits. Squeezing the purchasing power of the proles is obviously the intention here, letting the stock market burst would lead to a political disaster given that most governments rely on pensioners to get elected so I would guess that won't happen.

Yep. Pretty much my thinking.

I think we'll see a pullback in markets, but, at this stage anyway, I don't see the Armageddon that many are predicting for exactly the same reason you've mentioned. That would cause a catastrophe that would take decades to get out of.