The Very Meh Humza Yousaf Thread.

[Jedi2]

Agree that a Council Tax freeze (which is a sop to the middle class) is a panicked policy and doesn't look good when Councils are trying to find cash to pay their workers.

As far as a defacto Ref at Holyrood goes..let's say the SNP win that election, most seats, but on say, 40% of the vote..how does that work? Around 60% will have voted for parties which stood on a No ticket...so it would be difficult to claim that 'most seats' simply makes Scotland Independent.

It's back to a sustained majority support, which at the moment looks some way off.

[lichtgilphead]

20 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

Agree that a Council Tax freeze (which is a sop to the middle class) is a panicked policy and doesn't look good when Councils are trying to find cash to pay their workers.

I'm not a fan of Humza's plan either, but look at this, from only 6 months ago...

[RuMoore]

The beyond transparent and hilariously desperate attempt to deflect from Humza and therefore SNP criticism by referencing the people's champion PM in waiting is very amusing imgho. 

Labours plan in the story posted seems like it's costed however with Humza has he yet specified how the CT freeze will be funded so local councils don't lose out and have to cut spending and reduce services elsewhere? 

As far as I'm aware and perhaps insider @SandyCromartycould confirm or deny this he's had had a lot of backlash from essentially every single person that is involved in local government from COSLA to councillors and internal staffers?

I think we're nearing Forbes by February territory. 

Edited October 20, 2023 by RuMoore

[lichtgilphead]

Just now, RuMoore said:

The beyond transparent and hilariously desperate attempt to deflect from Humza and therefore SNP criticism by referencing the people's champion PM in waiting is very amusing imgho. 

Labours plan in the story posted seems like it's costed however with Humza has he yet specified how the CT freeze will be funded so local councils don't lose out and have to cut spending and reduce services elsewhere? 

As far as I'm aware and perhaps insider @SandyCromartycould confirm or deny this has had a lot of backlash from essentially every single person that is involved in local government from COSLA to councillors?

I thintormzyk we're nearing Forbes by February territory. 

In his eagerness to portray my post as defending Humza's idiotic off-the cuff policy, Stormzy's multibanned alias appeats to be ignoring the fact that I specifically stated I'm no fan of this policy. In the interests of clarity, I would add that I don't give a f*ck whether it appears to be costed or not.

However, "the people's champion PM" is one of the stupidest things I've ever read on here, and should be highlighted for the absolute nonsense that it is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Trogdor]

I don't so much take issue with the council tax freeze policy. You can make a cogent argument that now is not the time to increase it given the current climate and environment. Admittedly, to do that you should be giving Council's more money from central government. I don't even take issue with the fact that Council Tax should have been scrapped and replaced by a local income tax long before now. 

What I take issue with is that Humza just plucked this out of the sky a couple of hours before his speech. That's the very antithesis of competent governance. Which should be his main priority. I don't think he'll be leader after the WM election a reckoning is coming.

The movement is going through some growing pains, irrespective of where you sit on that spectrum (right or left) there is a disenchantment with what's being offered at the moment. Turnout is what will hurt the SNP. I expect support for independence may well plateau for a time but support for the SNP is going to plummet (by their recent standards). The SNP will likely still win the most seats via FPTP for WM, unless there is a cataclysmic collapse.

[lichtgilphead]

1 minute ago, Trogdor said:

I don't so much take issue with the council tax freeze policy. You can make a cogent argument that now is not the time to increase it given the current climate and environment. Admittedly, to do that you should be giving Council's more money from central government. I don't even take issue with the fact that Council Tax should have been scrapped and replaced by a local income tax long before now. 

What I take issue with is that Humza just plucked this out of the sky a couple of hours before his speech. That's the very antithesis of competent governance. Which should be his main priority. I don't think he'll be leader after the WM election a reckoning is coming.

The movement is going through some growing pains, irrespective of where you sit on that spectrum (right or left) there is a disenchantment with what's being offered at the moment. Turnout is what will hurt the SNP. I expect support for independence may well plateau for a time but support for the SNP is going to plummet (by their recent standards). The SNP will likely still win the most seats via FPTP for WM, unless there is a cataclysmic collapse.

Interestingly, as you suggest, support for Indy does not currently appear to be decreasing. The latest polling (Savanta, 6th-11th October 2023) shows the SNP on 35% for Westminster & 37% for Holyrood. As Indy is polling at 49% in the same poll, this suggests that 12-14% of Indy supporters vote for other parties. This supports my previous contention that around 30% of Labour voters would vote Yes in Indyref2.

No wonder the Yoon democracy deniers are unwilling to risk a further referendum. 

[GTee]

34 minutes ago, RuMoore said:

The beyond transparent and hilariously desperate attempt to deflect from Humza and therefore SNP criticism by referencing the people's champion PM in waiting is very amusing imgho. 

Labours plan in the story posted seems like it's costed however with Humza has he yet specified how the CT freeze will be funded so local councils don't lose out and have to cut spending and reduce services elsewhere? 

As far as I'm aware and perhaps insider @SandyCromartycould confirm or deny this he's had had a lot of backlash from essentially every single person that is involved in local government from COSLA to councillors and internal staffers?

I think we're nearing Forbes by February territory. 

These posts tickle me, because we can't do anything about it.. Westminster controls the money. Please correct me otherwise.

[GTee]

So true or false?

North Sea Oil has benifitted the South of England to the detriment of Scotland.

[Trogdor]

7 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

Interestingly, as you suggest, support for Indy does not currently appear to be decreasing. The latest polling (Savanta, 6th-11th October 2023) shows the SNP on 35% for Westminster & 37% for Holyrood. As Indy is polling at 49% in the same poll, this suggests that 12-14% of Indy supporters vote for other parties. This supports my previous contention that around 30% of Labour voters would vote Yes in Indyref2.

No wonder the Yoon democracy deniers are unwilling to risk a further referendum. 

Yeah, it is interesting. There are definitely yes voters who vote Labour. I'm not sure of the scale though (it could be as much as 30%).

That being said, I couldn't see a SNP voter switching to Labour with their position of no referendum ever. I think their position would need to be more nuanced. Which is why I expect disaffected SNP voters will just stay home.

The only caveat I'll make to that is if Scottish voters do what they did for a spell in the late 2000s. Vote Labour at WM & SNP at Holyrood. I think that particular calculus died in 2015 though. 

As you say, it's certainly not dull.

Edited October 21, 2023 by Trogdor

[RuMoore]

10 hours ago, GTee said:

These posts tickle me, because we can't do anything about it.. Westminster controls the money. Please correct me otherwise.

This has nothing to do with Westminster. 

[Billy Jean King]

Dreaming up a policy over breakfast then running with it is bad enough but dreaming up a policy that couldn't possibly be costed so far away from Councils budget processes with some sort of pledge to fund it is utterly ridiculous. Council A might have announced a 5% rise come announcement time in Feb / March while Council B might have announced a 10% rise. A could have 60k households while B has 300k households. On top of that Councils were months into costing the potential effect of the proposed changes for E to H bands and 2nd homes. Neither policy will now happen next year. This could cost mega bucks to fund and it's not hard to envisage non SNP run administrations ramping up their "planned increases" in an attempt to pile pressure on the SNP. A massive own goal by any measure.

[sfha]

21 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

Interestingly, as you suggest, support for Indy does not currently appear to be decreasing. The latest polling (Savanta, 6th-11th October 2023) shows the SNP on 35% for Westminster & 37% for Holyrood. As Indy is polling at 49% in the same poll, this suggests that 12-14% of Indy supporters vote for other parties. This supports my previous contention that around 30% of Labour voters would vote Yes in Indyref2.

No wonder the Yoon democracy deniers are unwilling to risk a further referendum. 

Re polling... I've been on this Earth for 57 years and have never been polled on anything. I asked my wife, who is a year or so older, the same question and she was also flummoxed. I believe my son and daughter are in the same position as are their partners. Who are these pollsters asking?

[vikingTON]

10 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

Dreaming up a policy over breakfast then running with it is bad enough but dreaming up a policy that couldn't possibly be costed so far away from Councils budget processes with some sort of pledge to fund it is utterly ridiculous. Council A might have announced a 5% rise come announcement time in Feb / March while Council B might have announced a 10% rise. A could have 60k households while B has 300k households. On top of that Councils were months into costing the potential effect of the proposed changes for E to H bands and 2nd homes. Neither policy will now happen next year. This could cost mega bucks to fund and it's not hard to envisage non SNP run administrations ramping up their "planned increases" in an attempt to pile pressure on the SNP. A massive own goal by any measure.

I'm not convinced that LAs were actually counting on any adjustments in their financial planning - they should go with what they know is available (because big CT rises aren't a shoo-in to win a council vote either).

But the overall point is totally correct. The SG has been fireproofing departments and pet projects from its budget granted by Westminster for years - the ultimate result is that the rest of the state falls apart as a consequence. Unless you're in the singular, target category of a child in poverty, local services and your everyday needs are deteriorating. I wouldn't be surprised if a few councils follow the examples south of the border and declare effective insolvency unless balance is restored.

Not grasping long overdue council tax reform was understandable before the independence referendum but that was 9 years ago now. Even the basic issue of basing home valuation on early 1990s figures is total banana republic behaviour. 

[lichtgilphead]

25 minutes ago, sfha said:

Re polling... I've been on this Earth for 57 years and have never been polled on anything. I asked my wife, who is a year or so older, the same question and she was also flummoxed. I believe my son and daughter are in the same position as are their partners. Who are these pollsters asking?

I believe that they all use similar methods, but then apply their own weightings (based upon recalled vote, etc). A lot of them have specific "panels", who they go back to again & again to see whether opinions change.

An organisation called the British Polling Council also sets out standards that members have to abide by. Whilst no polling compny is perfect, I would suggest that they are more statistically reliable than the unsupported assertions promoted by @CarrbridgeSaintee, @RuMoore and their sockpuppet aliases.

[GTee]

It does seem like those south of the border prefer to keep the sponging Scots onboard, whilst disliking the sponging immigrants. Maybe not though

[Trogdor]

3 hours ago, ForzaViola said:

I think i might just write "f**k this" on the ballot paper. 

I can empathise with that position.

[BFTD]

13 hours ago, sfha said:

Re polling... I've been on this Earth for 57 years and have never been polled on anything. I asked my wife, who is a year or so older, the same question and she was also flummoxed. I believe my son and daughter are in the same position as are their partners. Who are these pollsters asking?

I was polled on politics several times after signing up for a few of those survey websites, maybe fifteen years ago. I think the people being asked amount to folk who think very highly of their own opinion and feel compelled to let everyone know, and those looking to grind out a small amount of extra money for clicking boxes.

If a dozen or so of us could be arsed, I'm guessing we could gerrymander a massive swing to the Farage Party in Scotland, which would be most amusing to see the deflated look on his wee face come election night.

Edit: I also got paid £30 around the same time to sit in a room with a load of other folk answering questions about the BBC, the uniform opinion of which was that it was rubbish compared to the days when they used to make quality shows like <whatever garbage was on when they were a kid>.

Edited October 22, 2023 by BFTD

[Granny Danger]

13 hours ago, sfha said:

Re polling... I've been on this Earth for 57 years and have never been polled on anything. I asked my wife, who is a year or so older, the same question and she was also flummoxed. I believe my son and daughter are in the same position as are their partners. Who are these pollsters asking?

OK darling how often have you been polled:

a) More than three times.

b) One to three times.

c) Never.

d) Why is there no beer in the fridge.

 

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

3 hours ago, ForzaViola said:

The proposed Council Tax freeze is just a pointless, desperate gesture from a party which has completely lost direction. I say this as someone who voted SNP in every election (bar 2017 as i was too hungover to leave the house). Humza can propose whatever he likes as a "mandate for independence" because he knows a referendum is never going to be granted in the current political (and polling) climate. The SNP have got themselves bogged down in joke policy decisions and infighting when all the vast majority of the population want are decent, reliable public services - which the SNP actually did reasonably well until the last few years. 

The downfall (imo) started with the complete over-caution in the latter stages of the COVID-19 clusterfuck, have further exacerbated with the fall-out of GRA and involving the Greens has been a complete and utter shambles. 

We now have a situation where Humza, if granted a referendum, is going to have to swing anything from 5-10% of "don't knows" or "soft nos" all whilst: 

• Local authorities are being chronically underfunded (that's even without the CT Freeze pish)
• The highly awkward PR of the former leader etc being investigated by plod
• Social Security Scotland slowly turning into an utter disaster
• Seemingly weekly episodes of internal bickering

In terms of Independence itself, I have gone from an absolute YES to a "aye probably" and cancelled the DD for my membership a few months back. Come election time I actually have no idea who to vote for. The SNP are the only pro-Independence party that aren't a 100% joke, but as above I'm completely disillusioned with them. Conservatives are a bunch of deeply unpleasant sociopaths, the Lib Dems are absolutely pointless and Labour are barely any different to David Cameron's 2011 onwards. 

I think i might just write "f**k this" on the ballot paper. 

Good post.

Do you think it’s all down to incompetence though?  Or do you think there has been a guiding hand in the background; one which, to say the very least, doesn’t have the Independence movement’s best interests at heart? 

[GNU_Linux]

We need a poll to find out how many people have actually taken part in polling.

Edited October 22, 2023 by GNU_Linux