US Presidential Election 2024

[TxRover]

On 15/03/2024 at 15:45, Freedom Farter said:

It's also that the Democrats don't offer an alternative to identity. They just offer a different identity, one which these folk perceive as hostile to their own. You'll never get these "basket of deplorables" folk, as Clinton dismissed them as, back onside without appealing to their material conditions. You need to change the battleground from identity to economics.

There was for a long time the Solid South (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid_South) voting pattern where these deplorables always voted in line with their class interests. That all went to shit from the '60s onwards when Black people and women joined the working class (from their previous position of underclass). Rabid anti-Black racism (and to a lesser degree sexism) ripped apart working class solidarity and the Republican party ate that up.

When you hear "USA was built on white supremacy" that obviously means the extermination of the indigenous people whose land it was built on. It also means how that building was done and who was doing it. There were Black African slaves cultivating tobacco in Jamestown before the Mayflower docked at Plymouth with its Pilgrims. To put that in terms of the mythology, the origin story for "white America" is predated by African slaves. 

Even prior to the '60s, the anti-Black racism of the US labour movement had always undermined its own progress. Black men were forbidden from joining unions so anytime there was a strike, industry owners would simply sack the (white) strikers and hire a load of Black workers to fill the roles. 

So its going to be a long and hard job to change the minds of these white working class voters in the South and Mid-West. They can be dismissed as Clinton did but then all she cared about was maintaining the status quo. She loved USA just the way it was in 2016, with folk unable to access cancer treatment, an affordable home or secure employment. She was happy to coast into the White House with a message of "well the Republicans will be even worse".

To get actual change in USA, you can't just dismiss these Trump voters (not the natural Republican voters, I mean the working class ones). They need won over to give you the overwhelming public consent needed for something like universal healthcare. Your Bidens and your Clintons will fight against that tooth and nail so the pressure for it needs to come from a public majority which can't be ignored. Undoing the racism of southern and mid-western working class whites is a monumental task that'll take a long time. However, making the politcal battleground identity, as the Democrats do, and therefore playing right into that racism is the worst way to go about it.

Trade unionism is making a comeback in USA after it initially fractured in the '60s then got destroyed by Reagan in the '80s. Similar to how Mick Lynch makes more sense than any politician in UK, trade union leaders in USA present a better pitch than any of the politicians there. Trade unions are what worked before for educating working class folk on politics and I still see them as the best hope again.

Not entirely…pretty solid, but misses a few nuances.

1) The pro-2A crowd (gun wankers) provides a solid 10% base for the Republicans (with another qp% or so available, depending on news stories, ammo shortages, etc).

2) Stack on top of that the rabid America Now crowd (the new Reich Wing), which is comprised of the open racists, the replacement theory adherents, and the elderly scared of a majority minority U.S.A. Note there is a significant overlap between groups 1 and 2.

3) Add the hardcore anti-abortion/anti-birth control crowd (again, overlap in the anti-birth control and replacement theory crowds) and you reach around 35-40% of the electorate.

The Democrats have a similar series of groups that comprise their 35-40%, hence the fight over the “independents” 20-30%.

[Freedom Farter]

4 hours ago, TxRover said:

Not entirely…pretty solid, but misses a few nuances.

1) The pro-2A crowd (gun wankers) provides a solid 10% base for the Republicans (with another qp% or so available, depending on news stories, ammo shortages, etc).

2) Stack on top of that the rabid America Now crowd (the new Reich Wing), which is comprised of the open racists, the replacement theory adherents, and the elderly scared of a majority minority U.S.A. Note there is a significant overlap between groups 1 and 2.

3) Add the hardcore anti-abortion/anti-birth control crowd (again, overlap in the anti-birth control and replacement theory crowds) and you reach around 35-40% of the electorate.

The Democrats have a similar series of groups that comprise their 35-40%, hence the fight over the “independents” 20-30%.

1) Bernie Sanders strategically kept quiet on guns to avoid alienating these folk. I bring that up not to say he was correct to do so but because it backs up your point, that it's a serious consideration.

2) Sure, well those are all specific manifestations of racism. Racism is by far the biggest reason for white working class Americans opposing welfare and social spending. "You'll be paying for Black people's housing, healthcare, schooling and benefits" is what they've had drummed into their heads for decades now. It doesn't matter to them that the taxes would also be paying for their own housing, healthcare, schooling and benefits. They'd rather stay poor themselves so long as that means Black people stay even poorer. (Perhaps where you are in Texas, we can swap out "Blacks" for "illegals").

3) I was listening to a Brazilian commentator recently and he was talking about the rise of evangelical christianity in Brazil. Its very similar to the US model where oligarchs fund it all. It was his belief that the decline of trade unions in Brazil had played into the growth of the evangelical movement. Trade unions provided a social and community aspect which had gone amiss since their decline then the new churches replaced that for folk. Many of the new evangelicals were previously irreligious rather than Catholics converting, so he maybe had a point. USA is not Brazil so I don't know how well that theory carries over but trade unions definitely had a community role among the working class historically. Reprising that to some extent could provide alternative ideas to what these folk are getting in their churches.

[BFTD]

2 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

2) Sure, well those are all specific manifestations of racism. Racism is by far the biggest reason for white working class Americans opposing welfare and social spending. "You'll be paying for Black people's housing, healthcare, schooling and benefits" is what they've had drummed into their heads for decades now. It doesn't matter to them that the taxes would also be paying for their own housing, healthcare, schooling and benefits. They'd rather stay poor themselves so long as that means Black people stay even poorer. (Perhaps where you are in Texas, we can swap out "Blacks" for "illegals").

This is a major mental illness that afflicts humanity, and I'm not sure if people realise how prevalent it is. Everyone seems to have their own group(s) they consider beneath them and would willingly accept negative repercussions to their own circumstances if it meant keeping THEM worse off. The scene from Mississippi Burning where Gene Hackman's character talks about his father springs to mind.

Those "would you accept this sum of money if you had to split it with your worst enemy?" surveys that occasionally pop up are always an eye-opener  

[D Angelo Barksdale]

2 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

3) I was listening to a Brazilian commentator recently and he was talking about the rise of evangelical christianity in Brazil. Its very similar to the US model where oligarchs fund it all. It was his belief that the decline of trade unions in Brazil had played into the growth of the evangelical movement. Trade unions provided a social and community aspect which had gone amiss since their decline then the new churches replaced that for folk. Many of the new evangelicals were previously irreligious rather than Catholics converting, so he maybe had a point. USA is not Brazil so I don't know how well that theory carries over but trade unions definitely had a community role among the working class historically. Reprising that to some extent could provide alternative ideas to what these folk are getting in their churches.

The decline of trade unions, not just in Brazil, but across the 'West' is part of a larger decline of civic engagement. Church attendance, (working) men's clubs, women's institutes, Scouts, political party membership etc. (Although some will buck the trend occasionally)

[TxRover]

17 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

1) Bernie Sanders strategically kept quiet on guns to avoid alienating these folk. I bring that up not to say he was correct to do so but because it backs up your point, that it's a serious consideration.

2) Sure, well those are all specific manifestations of racism. Racism is by far the biggest reason for white working class Americans opposing welfare and social spending. "You'll be paying for Black people's housing, healthcare, schooling and benefits" is what they've had drummed into their heads for decades now. It doesn't matter to them that the taxes would also be paying for their own housing, healthcare, schooling and benefits. They'd rather stay poor themselves so long as that means Black people stay even poorer. (Perhaps where you are in Texas, we can swap out "Blacks" for "illegals").

3) I was listening to a Brazilian commentator recently and he was talking about the rise of evangelical christianity in Brazil. Its very similar to the US model where oligarchs fund it all. It was his belief that the decline of trade unions in Brazil had played into the growth of the evangelical movement. Trade unions provided a social and community aspect which had gone amiss since their decline then the new churches replaced that for folk. Many of the new evangelicals were previously irreligious rather than Catholics converting, so he maybe had a point. USA is not Brazil so I don't know how well that theory carries over but trade unions definitely had a community role among the working class historically. Reprising that to some extent could provide alternative ideas to what these folk are getting in their churches.

15 hours ago, BFTD said:

This is a major mental illness that afflicts humanity, and I'm not sure if people realise how prevalent it is. Everyone seems to have their own group(s) they consider beneath them and would willingly accept negative repercussions to their own circumstances if it meant keeping THEM worse off. The scene from Mississippi Burning where Gene Hackman's character talks about his father springs to mind.

Those "would you accept this sum of money if you had to split it with your worst enemy?" surveys that occasionally pop up are always an eye-opener  

15 hours ago, D Angelo Barksdale said:

The decline of trade unions, not just in Brazil, but across the 'West' is part of a larger decline of civic engagement. Church attendance, (working) men's clubs, women's institutes, Scouts, political party membership etc. (Although some will buck the trend occasionally)

Identity politics is the crystallisation of decades, if not centuries, of dodgy pseudo-science being applied to groups of people. While it first “surfaced” in the 70’s, the basics of egging one group against another is as old as time immemorial, while applying a cover to your hate/envy/targeting. For the U.S., there is a rich tradition of picking groups to discriminate against, generally by pointing out to the poor, “white” folks what a threat they were to “them”.

The earliest “American” example predate the country with indentured servants being rapidly replaced with African slaves. Then there was a steady drumbeat of pitting the lower classes against sub-groups…the Irish, the Jews, the Chinese, all spent time in the barrel, but generally while standing on the Negro’s shoulders. The most clear examples were things like red-lining, sunset towns and segregation.

In the 1960’s, with the Civil Rights Act causing the forcing of public facilities to open to all, this resulted in communities across the South closing their swimming pools rather than letting those “uppity Negros” use them. This also coincided with an upswing in private pool ownership, particularly in the White middle-class. California’s Proposition 13 was a similar effort, aimed at starving the municipalities of funds that could provide services to all residents.

By the 1980’s, Reagan’s “welfare queens” were the high point of the Republican attacks on the African-American community, as Ronnie legalized 3 million plus “hard working immigrants”, mainly Hispanic, in an effort to sure up Republican demographics and to refresh a stagnant labor force. In the previous decade, efforts to liberalize the immigration system were focused upon providing more cheap labor, and someone else for the Republican’s to (unofficially) point out as “worse off than you” and people to “kick down upon”.

Substitute Muslim, Mexican, Central American, Haitian, or any other group we hear attacked as threatening America, a group that has increased to include “Lib-yards” these days, and you’ll understand U.S. politics better.

[welshbairn]

Good news for the Ohio Dems with Trump's boy winning the senate primary. A Dem PAC spent $2.7 million on tv ads boosting him, embarrassing if it doesn't pay off for them though.

[Granny Danger]

It will be interesting to see what happens within the GOP if Trump loses in November; a prospect that’s more likely than not IMO.

All the delaying tactics of his various trials, both civil and criminal, will quickly recede and his ‘brand’ will be genuinely finished.

His grip on the GOP appears so tight that the infighting within the MAGA ranks will likely be more entertaining than the battle with the depleted traditional Republicans who may try to wrestle control back from the lunatic wing.  I can see many wealthy donors wanting a return to normality once Trump’s stranglehold is over.  Failing that I wonder if there would be a move to establish a new pro-Republican party?  Probably not.

What would be hilarious is someone like Ramaswamy or DeSantis trying to assume Trump’s mantle and going up against Don Jnr.  The sales of popcorn will skyrocket.

[TxRover]

Latest Quinnipiac University poll has Biden 50 to Trump 44. This is a change from last month where it was 47/46, so within the margin of error. More worryingly for the Trump camp, women broke 58-36 for Biden, up from 53-41. This is where the latest Republican grumbling is coming, with talk how more women should get married and pregnant, as then they become more Conservative. People mentioning this as a basis for women moving away from the Republican Party get poo-pooed…looks like the abortion and IVF issues are hitting Trump’s support.

Again, this is well outside the time where these polls actually matter, but it shows erosion of support for Trump. In response to truly godawful fundraising data, the Trump camp is trumpeting his April “fundraiser”, where the seats will run $250,000 to nearly $850,000 per seat.

[Freedom Farter]

Here's an opinion I've come across: Biden's polling might've been low until now partly because folk were often responding with just their opinion of Biden in isolation. However, now that it's known Trump is definitely going to be his opponent, folk are more consciously applying a "Biden or Trump" lens to the question. Therefore, Biden's polling numbers will increase.

[Bully Wee Villa]

I hope so. I'm fairly resigned to the twats voting Trump again.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The one thing where Biden does have a big advantage over Trump is funding - it is almost double that of Trump's.

Another consideration is that the US economy will improve over the next 7 months.

Trump clearly leads at the moment but that is is more about Biden than Trump - there's still a lot to play for.

If I were a betting man I would not be surprised if this comes down to just one state when the electoral college votes are voted up.

[10menwent2mow]

Trump will win. That's the last I will say on it until after the election. 

[TxRover]

15 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

I hope so. I'm fairly resigned to the twats voting Trump again.

I have no doubt the Orange Führer will draw 40-47% of the vote (depends on third party and legal results)…and in doing so will win a number of deeply Conservative states like Alabama, Utah and Idaho. The more interesting question might be Georgia or Arizona, if a viable third-party candidate is active.

Remember, given the Electoral Collage, popular vote, which is what most polls right now measure, is worthless. both Trump and GWBush won with a lower popular vote total than their opponent.

A primer: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/a-brief-history-of-electoral-college-bias/

[TxRover]

4 minutes ago, 10menwent2mow said:

Trump will win. That's the last I will say on it until after the election. 

Nah, Dobbs killed Trump’s chance of a second term.

[welshbairn]

Hopefully it will be similar to last time when Trump's odds went in a lot as the early counts came in, the Magas thought postal votes were for commie losers so mostly voted in person, which were counted first. I went large on Biden hoping the position would reverse when the postal votes came in, which it did. Biggest bet I've ever made but more than doubled my money. 

[Bully Wee Villa]

There will presumably still be a swing back to the Dems on the night as postal votes come in but presumably not as much as last time at the height of Covid (plus they've banned a few ways of doing it I think).

[TxRover]

The Republican Party continues to handicap its members and candidates. The House Republican Study Committee (about 80% of the House Republicans are members, around 180 of them) just released it’s 2025 Fiscal Plan…and it is already being disavowed by Republicans in competitive districts. Medicare, Medicaid, ACA, School Lunch, CHiP and such cuts, an increase in the Social Security retirement age, attacks on Family Planning and IVF, it’s a Democratic wet dream. This is gonna be fun.

[Salvo Montalbano]

22 minutes ago, TxRover said:

The Republican Party continues to handicap its members and candidates. The House Republican Study Committee (about 80% of the House Republicans are members, around 180 of them) just released it’s 2025 Fiscal Plan…and it is already being disavowed by Republicans in competitive districts. Medicare, Medicaid, ACA, School Lunch, CHiP and such cuts, an increase in the Social Security retirement age, attacks on Family Planning and IVF, it’s a Democratic wet dream. This is gonna be fun.

Yeah in an election where low turnout (especially on the Democratic/Independent side) would be hugely beneficial to your own chances, publishing a list of cuts to things that the Democrats will be pushing front and centre in all the swing states (and probably getting a ton of free media to do so as well) seems a bit of a Ratner moment.

[TxRover]

In yet another truly inspired move to lose the election, the Republican Party platforms in Texas, Nebraska and Oklahoma all contain language calling for the end of no fault divorce. Louisiana is debating adding it. Guys, when your approval with women is at a low, continuing to dig is an interesting strategy. States that passed no fault divorce saw a 20% reduction in female suicide and an over 50% reduction in domestic violence against both sexes.

[Freedom Farter]

Two huge caveats to that. Firstly, it was a primary. Its unlikely all those same folk would also use a presidential election to protest in this way. Secondly, we're in April and the election isn't until November. You'd expect the picture in Gaza will change before then in a way that reflects less badly on Biden.

That said, Biden is certainly taking a risk. Wisconsin was one of the swing states Clinton infamously lost on in 2016. Also, if this predicted famine kicks into gear then it could last months and Gaza will still be in folk's minds close to the election.