US Presidential Election 2024

[GordonS]

22 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

Speaking of "experts" I've just checked that font of all knowledge... Bet365. They have Trump 1/2, Harris 2/1.

It'll be interesting to see if the odds change in the coming days.

Odds aren't predictions, especially in US presidential elections. They're driven as much by money as by assessment of probability, and Trumpists are both stupid and more likely to put money on their guy than other voters. A lot of us here made a killing off these halfwits in 2020, as they drove the odds up on states like Georgia even when it was clear they were already gone.

The odds have changed, Harris was 9/4 on Sunday and is under 2/1 now, but that's presumably driven by the atmosphere of despair around the Democrats being lifted.

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Odds aren't predictions, especially in US presidential elections. They're driven as much by money as by assessment of probability, and Trumpists are both stupid and more likely to put money on their guy than other voters. A lot of us here made a killing off these halfwits in 2020, as they drove the odds up on states like Georgia even when it was clear they were already gone.

The odds have changed, Harris was 9/4 on Sunday and is under 2/1 now, but that's presumably driven by the atmosphere of despair around the Democrats being lifted.

If it looks like going the same way as last time it'll be worth holding on while the early in person votes go in favour of Trump before lumping on Harris, in anticipation of the postal votes going her way. The odds shifted a fair bit in the first few hours of the count, as I'm sure you remember. 

[Cheese]

You're better looking at the Democrat v Republican win odds if you can find them rather than Trump v Harris atm as Harris hasn't been confirmed yet, so that will be factored in. Albeit she's pretty short to win the nomination.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

14 hours ago, velo army said:

This isn't the Dems strong suit at all. If social media is any indication (and it may not be a reliable one) they'll once again run this on identitarian grounds (while also railing against Harris being defined by her race and gender by detractors)  and her not being Trump. That'll be it. What does Harris believe in or care about? Being pro-choice isn't going to be enough of a vote winner and I don't think she has any left-wing economic leanings to speak of, so where does the inspiration aside from her skin colour and gender (and not being Trump) come from?

Her legacy as state attorney in Cali is keeping people locked up beyond their time for cheap labour and failing to prosecute cop killers to the extent of their law, shes alienated the BLM and Thin Blue Line folks in disliking her, its a miracle.

Check the nick of San Fransisco and LA with the robberies, mob shoplifting, she created that culture by being incredibly lax on crime, thats not going to be a vote winner in ‘rust belt’ states. 

[Salvo Montalbano]

If the Democrats were smart, they'd run a totally positive campaign and not even refer to Trump by name. If there's one thing he hates its not getting the limelight. 

"The Biden/Harris campaign had to clean up the mess left by the last president - here's what we achieved"

"We want to ensure that women have a right to choose - our opponents don't want that and some want to go even further with a National Abortion Ban and restrictions on birth control"

Etc. Trump's head would surely slowly explode over a series of his own rallies and he doubles down on shark infested waters and battery powered boats.

[scottsdad]

36 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

If the Democrats were smart, they'd run a totally positive campaign and not even refer to Trump by name. If there's one thing he hates its not getting the limelight. 

"The Biden/Harris campaign had to clean up the mess left by the last president - here's what we achieved"

"We want to ensure that women have a right to choose - our opponents don't want that and some want to go even further with a National Abortion Ban and restrictions on birth control"

Etc. Trump's head would surely slowly explode over a series of his own rallies and he doubles down on shark infested waters and battery powered boats.

One surprise in the UK election was how little Labour went after Tory greed and corruption in the campaign. There was so much ammo here and they didn't use it, but rather kept talking about what they would do in office. It worked, as a strategy. 

[welshbairn]

I think the Dems should be wary of putting abortion too central in their campaign, it's not a happy word. Let the states do most of the work on it and refer to it in terms of women's rights and Supreme Court appointments rather than the physical act, and the word itself. It would be weird having a crowd cheering about abortion.

Edited July 23 by welshbairn

[Jacksgranda]

16 hours ago, velo army said:

This isn't the Dems strong suit at all. If social media is any indication (and it may not be a reliable one) they'll once again run this on identitarian grounds (while also railing against Harris being defined by her race and gender by detractors)  and her not being Trump. That'll be it. What does Harris believe in or care about? Being pro-choice isn't going to be enough of a vote winner and I don't think she has any left-wing economic leanings to speak of, so where does the inspiration aside from her skin colour and gender (and not being Trump) come from?

Is that not enough? (Especially the last one.)

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

I think the Dems should be wary of putting abortion too central in their campaign, it's not a happy word. Let the states do most of the work on it and refer to it in terms of women's rights and Supreme Court appointments rather than the physical act, and the word itself. It would be weird having a crowd cheering about abortion.

Reproductive rights including IDV is a huge vote winner.  Should be central to our he campaign.

[Savage Henry]

3 hours ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

If the Democrats were smart, they'd run a totally positive campaign and not even refer to Trump by name. If there's one thing he hates its not getting the limelight. 

"The Biden/Harris campaign had to clean up the mess left by the last president - here's what we achieved"

"We want to ensure that women have a right to choose - our opponents don't want that and some want to go even further with a National Abortion Ban and restrictions on birth control"

Etc. Trump's head would surely slowly explode over a series of his own rallies and he doubles down on shark infested waters and battery powered boats.

Thing is, approval rate means far less, motivationally wise, than disapproval rate.   It’s the disapproval of Trump that’ll win it for the Dems.  
 

Nobody really “approves” of a policy, they merely don’t object to it.  

[velo army]

1 hour ago, Jacksgranda said:

Is that not enough? (Especially the last one.)

It wasn't for Hilary Clinton. They ran a campaign based on gender and her not being Trump (as well as the smug way she showed up exemplified by the disastrous "basket of deplorables" line) and she lost.

People don't identify along identitarian lines as much as some might think. On the other hand I don't think Trump's popularity will hold next to Harris. She'll show up better in debates and will present as a better Law and order candidate than the man facing a litany of charges and convictions. 

 

[Cheese]

[Alert Mongoose]

Not strictly the election but the video on this is, interesting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ngj4jyryeo

I mean resigning might be the right thing but hearing statements from some of the mutants like MTG would be enough for me to lose the rag and lamp them.

[carpetmonster]

 

[Salvo Montalbano]

56 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

 

If the Democrats have a solid convention (with Biden being compus mentis enough to deliver a speech) and pick a sensible running mate (Shapiro, Bashare, probably not Buttigeign even though he'd probably be the best option) and Vance continues to stink out venues then they'll really start to panic. Still early days though.

[MONKMAN]

Buttigieg would be the best choice, but it's just not going to happen for the obvious reason.  The Republicans seem to have gone into absolute meltdown the past 2 days.  

[HTG]

The Republicans have lost the run of themselves. There will be plenty of bumps in the road but if she keeps this sort of stuff up the orange skinned one will throw a head's gone to end them all. 

I'm sure I also saw some arsehole at a podium bleating on about being on the right side of the next civil war. 

 

[MazzyStar]

Kamala seems to be less boastful about sending huge numbers of people to prison for non violent drug offences. 

[GordonS]

 

[TxRover]

14 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Thirdly, a decent pick of prospective VP could be a very significant factor, politically and personally.  Vance is already coming across as a cardboard cutout who failed his audition for the A-Team and that needs amplified.

We don't have to like Harris or her perceived lack of policies, but when you look at the alternative it fairly concentrates the mind.

14 hours ago, carpetmonster said:

Anyway, on the identitarian approach it does strike me that 6’2 Andy Beshear is exactly that type of person you’d want in front of a camera shaking hands with a 5’7 sofa shagger. If, indeed, Beshear agrees that he’s up to date on all his inoculations and is OK to shake hands with Vance. Ew.

Interesting, Beshear is already tearing into Vance with great results. His “he ain’t from round here” has been answered with lots of inside jokes by natives of the area (he washes his skillet, etc).

I suspect he understands the Democrats get the best mileage from not naming a VP candidate until the convention, and has elected to audition for the role by hitting Vance hard and annoying Trump.

9 hours ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

If the Democrats were smart, they'd run a totally positive campaign and not even refer to Trump by name. If there's one thing he hates its not getting the limelight. 

"The Biden/Harris campaign had to clean up the mess left by the last president - here's what we achieved"

"We want to ensure that women have a right to choose - our opponents don't want that and some want to go even further with a National Abortion Ban and restrictions on birth control"

Etc. Trump's head would surely slowly explode over a series of his own rallies and he doubles down on shark infested waters and battery powered boats.

Have Harris run positive and the VP candidate slag the VP pick of Trump, which will cause Trump (who is reportedly already regretting picking Vance) to combust.

9 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I think the Dems should be wary of putting abortion too central in their campaign, it's not a happy word. Let the states do most of the work on it and refer to it in terms of women's rights and Supreme Court appointments rather than the physical act, and the word itself. It would be weird having a crowd cheering about abortion.

That’s why they’ll trumpet choice, but the heavy lifting occurs on the down ballot propositions they’ve gotten on the ballot. That’s the winning version.

7 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Reproductive rights including IDV is a huge vote winner.  Should be central to our he campaign.

Yep, IVF is even more of a loser than abortion, and the Republican plank is anti-IVF.

3 hours ago, Alert Mongoose said:

Not strictly the election but the video on this is, interesting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ngj4jyryeo

I mean resigning might be the right thing but hearing statements from some of the mutants like MTG would be enough for me to lose the rag and lamp them.

It’s not illegal if the President orders it…and Biden can even plead mental impairment now. Of course, MTG wouldn’t need Seal Team Six to whack her, could probably be Girl Scout Troop Six with some tainted cookies.