Granny Danger Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 2 minutes ago, Richey Edwards said: I am about 90% sure that I remember some news broadcaster mistakenly announcing Al Gore as winner of the 2000 election due to him winning the popular vote. No it was because Florida (?) was disputed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richey Edwards Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Just now, Granny Danger said: No it was because Florida (?) was disputed. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_recount_in_Florida Yeah it was Florida. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 I was in the States for that election - one of the news stations (Fox?) declared Florida crazily early for Gore and had to row it back as more votes for Bush started being counted than they'd expected. The news outlets had a culture of desperately wanting to be first to announce who states had been won by; I think they're a bit more cautious now. There was an insane amount of pressure put on Gore to admit defeat immediately after the election, and he took dogs abuse for calmly insisting that the recount procedure was followed. Most of this was being applied by the same people who would go on to be happy for the Marmalade Mandarin to spend the past four years refusing to acknowledge he'd been beaten. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salvo Montalbano Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 3 minutes ago, BFTD said: I was in the States for that election - one of the news stations (Fox?) declared Florida crazily early for Gore and had to row it back as more votes for Bush started being counted than they'd expected. The news outlets had a culture of desperately wanting to be first to announce who states had been won by; I think they're a bit more cautious now. There was an insane amount of pressure put on Gore to admit defeat immediately after the election, and he took dogs abuse for calmly insisting that the recount procedure was followed. Most of this was being applied by the same people who would go on to be happy for the Marmalade Mandarin to spend the past four years refusing to acknowledge he'd been beaten. Always amazes me that they do that in American elections. I get that it's a big nation and counting all takes a long time, but you hear things like "with 1% of precincts reporting, we are calling New Mexico for Donald Trump". Yes, in many states it's a forgone conclusion but even for the tighter states they seem to call them based on projections rather than actual numbers? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 1 minute ago, Salvo Montalbano said: Always amazes me that they do that in American elections. I get that it's a big nation and counting all takes a long time, but you hear things like "with 1% of precincts reporting, we are calling New Mexico for Donald Trump". Yes, in many states it's a forgone conclusion but even for the tighter states they seem to call them based on projections rather than actual numbers? I think it’s because America is so segregated that you can do it pretty accurately based on precinct. Like when Fox were the first to call Arizona for Biden, it was because the last precincts to report were overwhelmingly Latino and Trump was known to be going down like a lead shite. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 3 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said: Always amazes me that they do that in American elections. I get that it's a big nation and counting all takes a long time, but you hear things like "with 1% of precincts reporting, we are calling New Mexico for Donald Trump". Yes, in many states it's a forgone conclusion but even for the tighter states they seem to call them based on projections rather than actual numbers? Calling Florida early was mental, as it was a marginal state even back then - when they called it so early, everyone assumed it must have been a surprise landslide for them to be so confident. I got it the wrong way round, by the way - apparently Fox called Florida early for Bush Jr. My memory must be going as I remember them going for Gore, but Bush's brother Jeb (the governor of Florida) asked Fox to announce his brother had won and they had to later recant when it was obviously neck and neck. No idea what good they thought it would do, unless they knew it was likely to be close and wanted to get one hand on the trophy in the public's mind (like Trump with his "I'm ahead before the postal ballots, stop counting!" bullshit). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Sanchez Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Isn't AI great? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salvo Montalbano Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 9 minutes ago, BFTD said: I got it the wrong way round, by the way - apparently Fox called Florida early for Bush Jr. A few years back there was a miniseries about Fox News with Russell Crowe in an amazing fat suit playing Roger Ailles. They covered that early call in that. They were upstarts and wanted to be first IIRC, even though their own analysts were saying it was far too early. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmarv Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 1 hour ago, ScotiaNostra said: Anyone know, how has it gone in the past ? When Obama, Clinton, Bush, Reagan etc won Were they winning both the popular vote and electoral College? I dont remember hearing much about Electoral College back then 2000 Dubya and 2016 Trump are the only two modern day presidents to lose the popular vote and still be elected. 2004 when incumbent Dubya had “freedom on the march” was the only time in the last 35 year that a republican has won the popular vote for president 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmarv Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Miguel Sanchez said: Isn't AI great? Yet more fake news from the guy that bleats about fake news more than anyone. Edited September 7 by bigmarv 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Correct. Harris hasn't pledged anything. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmarv Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 35 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said: A few years back there was a miniseries about Fox News with Russell Crowe in an amazing fat suit playing Roger Ailles. They covered that early call in that. They were upstarts and wanted to be first IIRC, even though their own analysts were saying it was far too early. The fox news meltdown in 2012 is legendary. They could not compute the fact that Obama was getting reelected: https://youtu.be/eQLV7nqD3CA?si=f8cKXxfWjptP1K0R 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 1 hour ago, bigmarv said: The fox news meltdown in 2012 is legendary. They could not compute the fact that Obama was getting reelected: https://youtu.be/eQLV7nqD3CA?si=f8cKXxfWjptP1K0R At some point over the past quarter of a century, they've gone from utter confusion about how they're not winning, to complete denial that it could even be possible. Going back to 2000, the phrase "hanging chads" was everywhere for about six months. Fast-forward to 2024 and Chad is the hung guy incels claim is shagging all their potential girlfriends. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 7 hours ago, ScotiaNostra said: No matter how much I read Kamala is clear favourite and going to win, I just have the fear that Trump could start to claw back votes in those crucial states and the Dems could still f**k it all up. 5 hours ago, BFTD said: She's going to win the popular vote, probably by a bigger margin than Clinton or Biden. The only thing that matters is the Electoral College, and that's by no means certain. It's like when you were a kid and beat your mate at arm wrestling, only for them to say, "doesn't count 'cause I wasn't ready". Nate Silver currently rates it was 61.5% for Trump to win due to the Electoral College, and sees very little to no chance he might win the popular vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScotiaNostra Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 4 minutes ago, TxRover said: Nate Silver currently rates it was 61.5% for Trump to win due to the Electoral College, and sees very little to no chance he might win the popular vote. Is he someone who has accurately predicted in the past? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 22 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said: Is he someone who has accurately predicted in the past? Unfortunately, yes. Used to lead 538, now is associated with PolyMarket. Summarizing some stories: -Hit the headlines when his new system predicted the outcomes in forty-nine of the fifty states in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. -Predicted the outcome of the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections with a high degree of accuracy. -Silver's polls-only model gave Donald Trump, the ultimate winner, only a 28.6% chance of victory in the 2016 presidential election, but this was higher than many other forecasting competitors. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 43 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said: Is he someone who has accurately predicted in the past? He's a blogger who got lucky. And now he's a blogger that's putting out wild takes because Peter Thiel's told him to. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 7 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said: America is a very untypical nation. It has only two direct neighbours, has never been invaded, and underpinned by the Monroe Doctrine it has acted with impunity across the globe. As such it's people do not react well to change. You are forgetting the War of 1812. America declared war on Canada and lost (although they say it was a draw). They captured Toronto and it was sacked but the reverse happened with Washington D.C. More recently Japan captured and occupied the islands of Attu and Kiska during the Pacific War. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 My understanding of it (and I’m happy to be corrected if wrong) there are seven ‘swing states’ - Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. I know they have all different numbers of electoral college votes and I think Pennsylvania is the largest. Assuming there are no shocks outwith these seven how many does Harris need to win to become President? If Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona does he still need Pennsylvania? If Harris wins Pennsylvania can Trump still realistically win? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 1 hour ago, Granny Danger said: My understanding of it (and I’m happy to be corrected if wrong) there are seven ‘swing states’ - Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. I know they have all different numbers of electoral college votes and I think Pennsylvania is the largest. Assuming there are no shocks outwith these seven how many does Harris need to win to become President? If Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona does he still need Pennsylvania? If Harris wins Pennsylvania can Trump still realistically win? You can have a wee play about here: https://www.270towin.com/ Arizona having 11 votes always surprises me as they only had 7 in the Eighties, but it's a popular place to relocate to. There was an ancient text-based game called President Elect that I used to fiddle about with because I've always been cool. It was almost impossible to win as third-party candidate unless the country was falling apart and the other opposing candidate was a dribbling simpleton who openly loved Communism. You can play it here if you're not bored enough: https://archive.org/details/msdos_President_Elect_-_1988_Edition_1987 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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