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US Presidential Election 2024


scottsdad

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Can I just say that there are a number of factors that go into bookmakers compiling odds or markets and the amount of money placed on one particular outcome is just one part of that.

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2 hours ago, doulikefish said:

I think Harris will win but in a similar fashion to Biden where Donnie is screaming stop the count etc etc but in the end he loses .I also think the potential for trouble is much higher this time so it's yank news channels on the 06th of No for a few days so the riots are broadcast live 

I've mentioned my focus group on here before ( basically all the yanks I've worked with,mainly Texans and from the deep south) they are normally are 75/25 Rep but this time it's around 50/50 

Too soon. No matter what, nothing will kick off right after 5 November. 6 January happened because that was the day the Congress was certifying the Electoral College results…I’d expect this time the excitement will be distributed around the country on 17 December. The Electors meet in there respective States on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December to vote and sign their papers, which are then sent to Washington D.C. for the Congressional part of the circus.

On 6 November, the discussion will be about absentee and mail ballots, and possibly the election will still be in the air. On 17 December, it all becomes real, and 6 January, 2021 was never gonna do anything because the actual important stuff happened on 15 December, 2020.

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4 hours ago, ScotiaNostra said:

Whats the thoughts of most on this thread as of now

Who do they think is going to win?

I always assume the very worst will happen in any given situation, so Trump to win, then die, and JD Vance to be sworn in on January 20th.

On the positive side, there's always the possibility that thermonuclear war might break out over the next couple of months.

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19 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Too soon. No matter what, nothing will kick off right after 5 November. 6 January happened because that was the day the Congress was certifying the Electoral College results…I’d expect this time the excitement will be distributed around the country on 17 December. The Electors meet in there respective States on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December to vote and sign their papers, which are then sent to Washington D.C. for the Congressional part of the circus.

On 6 November, the discussion will be about absentee and mail ballots, and possibly the election will still be in the air. On 17 December, it all becomes real, and 6 January, 2021 was never gonna do anything because the actual important stuff happened on 15 December, 2020.

I was thinking more of "stop the count" and the maga cult start protesting at vote counts etc 

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37 minutes ago, Deanburn Dave said:

The bookies have Trump in front but there's been a number of bets recently that have swung it his way.  Russian money at work I reckon.

Four accounts apparently shoved in $30m of crypto between them. 

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2 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

I was thinking more of "stop the count" and the maga cult start protesting at vote counts etc 

Georgia and Arizona were where most of the skullduggery was planned by MAGA. Looks like both of those will go to Trump quite handedly (yes, polls can be wrong).
 

Harris doesn’t need them, she needs MI, PA & WI, governors of MI, PA & WI are all Democrats with only PA having a Republican SOS.

Republican Skulduggery in PA? I doubt it given who the Gov is. 

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There was a decent piece in the Gruaniad today about how the Harris campaign is misdirected by focusing too much on the notion of Trump as a threat to democracy as such, and not enough on the actual material conditions of working class people.  The people who lose out the most from the economic and political system are less likely to be swayed appeals to save it.  If you think (rightly) that these institutions are run by and for extremely wealthy people, saving those institutions for one group of rich arseholes from the other group of rich arseholes probably means a lot less than obscene rent, medical debt and shitty housing.  

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What do I think?

Harris wins with 276-262, Harris with 51.2% of the popular vote and Trump with 48.1% and an about 62.5% turnout. 

Senate goes Republican 51-49

House goes Republican 218-217

Divided government is good for the stock market, expect decent returns but dysfunctional governance. Expect the Democrats to win both back in 2026.

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2 hours ago, A Diamond For Me said:

There was a decent piece in the Gruaniad today about how the Harris campaign is misdirected by focusing too much on the notion of Trump as a threat to democracy as such, and not enough on the actual material conditions of working class people.  The people who lose out the most from the economic and political system are less likely to be swayed appeals to save it.  If you think (rightly) that these institutions are run by and for extremely wealthy people, saving those institutions for one group of rich arseholes from the other group of rich arseholes probably means a lot less than obscene rent, medical debt and shitty housing.  

That just sums up the Democratic Party in general TBH. The people in cherge are quite comfortable themselves and blissfully unaware that, to millions of people, democracy doesn't seem like anything particularly worth holding on to now.

It also doesn't help that America could go full fascist next year and it wouldn't affect the important people in that party at all, other than losing any serious political career that they had. None of them have to worry about being deported, executed, or having their assets seized, and have the option of fleeing the country if any of that was ever on the cards. Frankly, they could use the fear of genuine persecution as a motivator.

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