BFTD Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 I saw that story about Trump saying he'd accept the election result. He'd refused to answer at first then, when pressed, said that he'd accept the result if it was a free and fair election: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgj29wk8rgo Not a story at all; that's always been his position. It's never a free and fair election - he's always been cheated. If he wins, it's because he's so massively popular that the evil demoncrats couldn't cheat hard enough. If he loses, it wasn't a free and fair election and he doesn't accept that he lost. Unfortunately, his support loves the message that they can never be wrong and will never lose if they just pretend that they didn't. If the species survives it, this era of history is primarily going to be puzzled over for rampant and inexplicable denial, in the same way that we wonder how people managed to convince themselves that "witchcraft" or "heresy" required people to be burned alive, or that it was perfectly OK for everyone to be feeding cocaine and heroin to babies. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 23 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said: Just wondering... with Harris seemingly edging ahead in some polls, has Trump started his "if we lose it can only be because of corruption" or "stop the steal" pish? That’s been a feature of his rallies since early 2022. 22 hours ago, welshbairn said: He actually said he would accept the result if he lost the other day, for the first time. … it, of course… 19 hours ago, bigmarv said: He’ll have slipped in some BS made up caveat like “as long as it’s legit”. he’s never going to accept that so it basically means nowt. …which he did… 1 hour ago, BFTD said: I saw that story about Trump saying he'd accept the election result. He'd refused to answer at first then, when pressed, said that he'd accept the result if it was a free and fair election: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgj29wk8rgo Not a story at all; that's always been his position. It's never a free and fair election - he's always been cheated. If he wins, it's because he's so massively popular that the evil demoncrats couldn't cheat hard enough. If he loses, it wasn't a free and fair election and he doesn't accept that he lost. Unfortunately, his support loves the message that they can never be wrong and will never lose if they just pretend that they didn't. If the species survives it, this era of history is primarily going to be puzzled over for rampant and inexplicable denial, in the same way that we wonder how people managed to convince themselves that "witchcraft" or "heresy" required people to be burned alive, or that it was perfectly OK for everyone to be feeding cocaine and heroin to babies. It still all goes back to a white majority in the U.S. is terrified of “losing control” as they become the white plurality. Far too many Americans are still sexist, let alone racist, to the core. They have a couple of black, middle class friends and talk a good talk, but they still crack the jokes about the “White” House and complain about black/hispanic welfare queens despite the majority of assistance payments going to poor white folks (numbers show immigrants get just 12.2%, blacks/hispanics get 27% each, and single parents get 50.6%). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 1 hour ago, TxRover said: That’s been a feature of his rallies since early 2022. … it, of course… …which he did… It still all goes back to a white majority in the U.S. is terrified of “losing control” as they become the white plurality. Far too many Americans are still sexist, let alone racist, to the core. They have a couple of black, middle class friends and talk a good talk, but they still crack the jokes about the “White” House and complain about black/hispanic welfare queens despite the majority of assistance payments going to poor white folks (numbers show immigrants get just 12.2%, blacks/hispanics get 27% each, and single parents get 50.6%). .. it, of course? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 6 minutes ago, Fullerene said: .. it, of course? Think that’s meant to be ‘if’, the way it reads 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 1 hour ago, Fullerene said: .. it, of course? 1 hour ago, carpetmonster said: Think that’s meant to be ‘if’, the way it reads if you'd assumed that, you'd have been right. Whoops. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmarv Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 (edited) Splendid Edited August 11 by bigmarv 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salvo Montalbano Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 The interesting question will be what happens if Harris beats Trump in a Biden like or even closer manner. Will Trump try and get friendly states to refuse to certify, will he put pressure on them to send a different slate of electors, etc. Last time round it didn't work and that was with a "friendly" in theory VP presiding over the votes, but what if he starts taking results to the Supreme Court and makes up some bullshit about postal votes being unconstitutional or something and his hand picked judges side with him? We've all heard "it won't happen, there are enough people there in positions of authority to make sure it doesn't happen" but it's Murica, it's MAGA, and all bets are off. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmarv Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 28 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said: The interesting question will be what happens if Harris beats Trump in a Biden like or even closer manner. Will Trump try and get friendly states to refuse to certify, will he put pressure on them to send a different slate of electors, etc. Last time round it didn't work and that was with a "friendly" in theory VP presiding over the votes, but what if he starts taking results to the Supreme Court and makes up some bullshit about postal votes being unconstitutional or something and his hand picked judges side with him? We've all heard "it won't happen, there are enough people there in positions of authority to make sure it doesn't happen" but it's Murica, it's MAGA, and all bets are off. He’s defo not going to go away quietly. An election loss in November almost guarantees jail time for him. Nobody should be above the law, and as much as I want him to pay for his crimes, it may well be prudent to cut some kind deal and drop the cases. We’re a long way down the road for that tho, lots of people have suffered because of his crimes and they deserve to see him pay. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTG Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 1 hour ago, bigmarv said: He’s defo not going to go away quietly. An election loss in November almost guarantees jail time for him. Nobody should be above the law, and as much as I want him to pay for his crimes, it may well be prudent to cut some kind deal and drop the cases. We’re a long way down the road for that tho, lots of people have suffered because of his crimes and they deserve to see him pay. Get him in the f**kin jail. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee-Bey Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 9 minutes ago, HTG said: Get him in the f**kin nail. FTFY 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmarv Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Still thinks he saved Christmas the mentalist 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 On 10/08/2024 at 10:49, Salt n Vinegar said: Starting to wonder if the algorithms are getting nervous (can algorithms get nervous?). Trigger warning... last of the big spenders vibes incoming. On Bet365 I stuck a tenner on Harris when she was 2/1, now they're offering me over £13 to cash out. I know, decisions decisions. (Current odds for both her and Trump are 10/11.) I've got £20 on her at 9/4 with the same bookie, they're offering me £30.96 to cash out. I think she's more likely to win that not so I'm holding on. Harris is now 4/5, Trump evens. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 1 hour ago, Cheese said: FTFY Compare and contrast the pose here with that of the statue of Lenin in St. Petersburg. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salt n Vinegar Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 59 minutes ago, GordonS said: I've got £20 on her at 9/4 with the same bookie, they're offering me £30.96 to cash out. I think she's more likely to win that not so I'm holding on. Harris is now 4/5, Trump evens. Before anyone gets too "ya fekkin eejit", yes, I know very well that bookies odds simply relate to where the money is going... the bookies aren't in some kind of Nostradamus mode, they aren't foreseeing the future. I'm nonetheless of the view that if the cash was going on a Trump victory, they wouldn't be offering Harris wagers a 30% to 40% profit 3 months ahead of the event date. Am I misreading the situation? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 I still think Trump will win. He's outperformed the polls both times and will do so again. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 23 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said: I still think Trump will win. He's outperformed the polls both times and will do so again. Pollsters have changed their methodology since those two elections, both their collection methods and their weighting. All are weighting for highest level of eduction, something they didn't do before which is how they missed Trump's surge among older white men with no college degree. Some are doing things like counting partial responses, people who quit the poll before it's finished, which they never did before. We'll only know after the election how successful that was, but in the 2022 midterms pollsters overstated Republican support. Trump supporters aren't exactly the same as Republican voters of course. Some pollsters think Trump is polling higher than in 2016 and 2020 because of the methodology changes - if that's true then the hidden Trump voters are already covered. A weird thing about the polls in the last two elections is that they got the Democrat vote right - in fact they more often underestimated it than overestimated it - but they were way over with minor candidates. I don't know how that happens but if there's a repeat, the polls look very good for Trump right now. Of course the state polls are where it really matters and it's disturbing how low quality they are. The sample size is usually in the 800s and they keep flipping between polling registered voters and likely voters, and polling on 2, 3 or more candidates. There's no consistency. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Thanks, that sounds a bit more promising, then. I just always assume the worst. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 13 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said: Before anyone gets too "ya fekkin eejit", yes, I know very well that bookies odds simply relate to where the money is going... the bookies aren't in some kind of Nostradamus mode, they aren't foreseeing the future. I'm nonetheless of the view that if the cash was going on a Trump victory, they wouldn't be offering Harris wagers a 30% to 40% profit 3 months ahead of the event date. Am I misreading the situation? They're still just trying to balance their books, a load of people have now bet on Harris so they want to reduce their exposure to 2/1 bets. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmarv Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Slip sliding away 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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