US Presidential Election 2024

[ScotiaNostra]

Its jumped back and forth whos going to win this in terms of general opinion, the debate on Tuesday could have some bearing. You would presume Trump comes across very badly in it as his campaign has been a car wreck and hes clearly insane but it feels like Harris initial bounce has levelled out a bit. Surely though she will come out of the debate looking a lot better than Trump so hopefully we start to see some distance in the swing seats after it.

 

[O'Kelly Isley III]

9 hours ago, Fullerene said:

You are forgetting the War of 1812.  America declared war on Canada and lost (although they say it was a draw).  They captured Toronto and it was sacked but the reverse happened with Washington D.C.

More recently Japan captured and occupied the islands of Attu and Kiska during the Pacific War.

Many thanks for that.  And how could I forget that 1812 dust-up, especially as my hero Hawkeye was probably involved ?

[Granny Danger]

14 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Many thanks for that.  And how could I forget that 1812 dust-up, especially as my hero Hawkeye was probably involved ?

Shirley that was Korea?

[O'Kelly Isley III]

2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Shirley that was Korea?

Naw, here's yet man.  Mind you, he'd be getting on a bit by 1812.

[carpetmonster]

1 minute ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Naw, here's yet man.  Mind you, he'd be getting on a bit by 1812.

To be fair, so was Alan Alda

[strichener]

26 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

To be fair, so was Alan Alda

And Granny Danger

[TxRover]

15 hours ago, carpetmonster said:

He's a blogger who got lucky. And now he's a blogger that's putting out wild takes because Peter Thiel's told him to. 

 

However, he has a pretty decent knack for getting the poll biases correct. The problem with polls is over and under representation. For instance, using the above:

Michigan with Harris averaging +2, you have recent partisan polls for both the R's and D's that both show dead-even. Its always a matter of checking partisan lean/bias. That explains the toss-up that Tom wants explained.

 

I don't love Nate, and I trust Harry Entan much more, but he echos the challenges Harris faces.

[carpetmonster]

Happy birthday Mary, to Our Lady of Guadalupe, in advance, given your holy day’s December 12th. 
 

 

[Granny Danger]

Even if Trump wins he won’t be around very long, he’s definitely cognitively impaired and that impairment is increasing at a rate of knots.

That would mean we’d have President JD Vance.  The Project 2025 guys would run over him and he’d be operating as their stooge.  A very worrying thought.

 

[carpetmonster]

20 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Even if Trump wins he won’t be around very long, he’s definitely cognitively impaired and that impairment is increasing at a rate of knots.

That would mean we’d have President JD Vance.  The Project 2025 guys would run over him and he’d be operating as their stooge.  A very worrying thought.

 

On the plus side, it’d mean the end of America’s nuclear weapons because the entire federal budget would be getting spent at DFS. 

[Sir Tarmo]

On 08/09/2024 at 12:22, ScotiaNostra said:

Its jumped back and forth whos going to win this in terms of general opinion, the debate on Tuesday could have some bearing. You would presume Trump comes across very badly in it as his campaign has been a car wreck and hes clearly insane but it feels like Harris initial bounce has levelled out a bit. Surely though she will come out of the debate looking a lot better than Trump so hopefully we start to see some distance in the swing seats after it.

 

I’m not sure Harris definitely comes out of the debate looking better than Trump. Harris has had success in debates before but Gabbard (in particular) and Pence both comfortably saw her off in recent years. Trump is pretty hard to debate in that you can’t throw any facts or figures at him as he isn’t arsed and it doesn’t affect his debate style. If you instead get into an insult war with him, you’ll always come out losing more, as it’s expected of Trump and doesn’t seem to affect his support. Harris’ record as a prosecutor could be used against her but I highly doubt Trump will go down any structured route in this debate. In terms of mics being muted, it will obviously affect Trump’s interrupting tactics, but it will also affect Harris as her debate style has previously involved letting other interrupt before politely shutting them down by pointing out that they have interrupted. It will also allow Trump to look slightly less rude and embarrassing and will limit oppoertunities to create ‘viral’ clips of Harris owning Trump etc. I suspect polling will remain tight until the final election but I think there is more on this debate for Harris. 

Edited September 9 by Sir Tarmo

[Salvo Montalbano]

22 minutes ago, Sir Tarmo said:

Gabbard (in particular) and Pence both comfortably saw her off in recent years. 

Gabbard I'll give you, but Pence? I had Harris as the winner but could possibly concede it was a 49/49 split (with the other 2% going to the fly that landed on Mike's head). "Comfortably saw off". Nut. 

On 08/09/2024 at 11:32, BFTD said:

You can have a wee play about here: https://www.270towin.com/

Thanks. I've entered the Data Trump will claim once the polls close and it doesn't look good for Harris...

Seriously though, although the Democrats might like the idea of flipping Florida or thinking Texas is in play or whatever, they really need to be focusing all their money and resources on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. That's what Clinton failed to do - surely they won't make the same mistake?

[Sir Tarmo]

8 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

Gabbard I'll give you, but Pence? I had Harris as the winner but could possibly concede it was a 49/49 split (with the other 2% going to the fly that landed on Mike's head). "Comfortably saw off". Nut. 

 

Thought Pence clearly got the better of her to be honest, but it wasn’t Gabbard levels. As much as we all want Trump nowhere near office, I think Harris is an underdog in this debate. There’s far more for her to lose here.

[Granny Danger]

21 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

Gabbard I'll give you, but Pence? I had Harris as the winner but could possibly concede it was a 49/49 split (with the other 2% going to the fly that landed on Mike's head). "Comfortably saw off". Nut. 

Thanks. I've entered the Data Trump will claim once the polls close and it doesn't look good for Harris...

Seriously though, although the Democrats might like the idea of flipping Florida or thinking Texas is in play or whatever, they really need to be focusing all their money and resources on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. That's what Clinton failed to do - surely they won't make the same mistake?

Read somewhere that by spending money in Florida and Texas the Dems are forcing Trump’s lot to focus there too rather than just the swing states, just in case.  The idea is to make the Republicans spread their resources wider too.

Not sure if it’s the best strategy but it’s a deliberate one.  They maybe trying to influence the down ballot battles too, particularly as abortion might play a pivotal role.

[CTQP1867]

I'm sorry but I don't remember the Putin puppet Gabbard "seeing off" KH at all?

From what I recall KH was the only one with the baws on that stage to launch an attack on Joe Biden - and that's the kind of pit bull I want to bring to a fight with the Orange Shrek.

Just watched it again - you've got to be on drugs to come away with that conclusion. Putin's bitch actually attacked KH from the Left on law and order for being tough on criminals and locking too many people up, whereas the Chameleon Gimp has now moved further right than Goebbels on law and order. I don't think Shrek will be attacking KH for her strong stance on law and order ffs!

 

 

Edited September 9 by CTQP1867

[carpetmonster]

2 hours ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

Gabbard I'll give you, but Pence? I had Harris as the winner but could possibly concede it was a 49/49 split (with the other 2% going to the fly that landed on Mike's head). "Comfortably saw off". Nut. 

Thanks. I've entered the Data Trump will claim once the polls close and it doesn't look good for Harris...

Seriously though, although the Democrats might like the idea of flipping Florida or thinking Texas is in play or whatever, they really need to be focusing all their money and resources on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. That's what Clinton failed to do - surely they won't make the same mistake?

Harris has been camped in PA all week; she’s holed up in a hotel in Pittsburgh doing her debate prep currently. Walz has done the Union of Auto Workers - not entirely sure if it was in MI, but if not, that’s surely where any footage will resonate most. 
 

ETA - aye, Michigan - https://uaw.org/kamala-harris-and-tim-walz-meet-with-uaw-members-leaders-at-uaw-local-900-in-wayne-michigan/

Edited September 9 by carpetmonster

[carpetmonster]

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

Read somewhere that by spending money in Florida and Texas the Dems are forcing Trump’s lot to focus there too rather than just the swing states, just in case.  The idea is to make the Republicans spread their resources wider too.

Not sure if it’s the best strategy but it’s a deliberate one.  They maybe trying to influence the down ballot battles too, particularly as abortion might play a pivotal role.

There’s a fair whack of down ballot GOP candidates already complaining that resources aren’t coming to them now too, because Trump’s syphoning PAC funds to pay his own bills. So I’m not sure how wide they can spread them with their current nominee. 

[BFTD]

Choosing Walz might be the smartest thing the Democrats do at this election. I'm not sure who Vance is supposed to appeal to other than folk who'd be voting for Trump anyway.

[carpetmonster]

36 minutes ago, CTQP1867 said:

I'm sorry but I don't remember the Putin puppet Gabbard "seeing off" KH at all?

From what I recall KH was the only one with the baws on that stage to launch an attack on Joe Biden - and that's the kind of pit bull I want to bring to a fight with the Orange Shrek.

Just watched it again - you've got to be on drugs to come away with that conclusion. Putin's bitch actually attacked KH from the Left on law and order for being tough on criminals and locking too many people up, whereas the Chameleon Gimp has now moved further right than Goebbels on law and order. I don't think Shrek will be attacking KH for her strong stance on law and order ffs!

 

 

Yeah, I don’t remember that either - TBF I don’t remember much of that town hall/debate, but when it broke that Tulsi is apparently helping Trump with his debate prep there were loads of folks giving it ‘oh dear - here’s Kamala putting her right in her box at the Dem town hall’ and linking to a video. Surely if Gabbard had bodied her they’d have just ignored that particular story? 

[carpetmonster]

3 minutes ago, BFTD said:

Choosing Walz might be the smartest thing the Democrats do at this election. I'm not sure who Vance is supposed to appeal to other than folk who'd be voting for Trump anyway.

There’s probably a small demographic of skinwalkers who’ve tried to blend into human society that empathize with him, but I can’t imagine there’s enough of them in one place to make much of an impact.