US Presidential Election 2024

[bigmarv]

6 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Are you sure about that?

Most of the latest swing state polls have been going in Trump’s direction.

I know thst the NYT did point out many were from GOP funded sources and cast doubt on their reliability - is there evidence to back this up?

You can see the individual state probabilities here, there’s a drop down on there to switch states. 

This is  just one polling aggregator mind, there are a few: 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

[TxRover]

15 hours ago, BFTD said:

It's almost like many of them aren't bothered about border issues at all, and just want an excuse to (again) vote for the open racist. Most people in AZ will be well aware that their Hispanic neighbours aren't any more likely to commit crime than they are, especially the undocumented immigrants. Plenty of them are concerned with Caucasians making up less than 50% of the state's population, however. Your guess is as good as mine with regard to why, but melanin levels are massively important to some people.

Which is exactly correct. 1/2 the violent crime and 1/4 the property crime.

https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/undocumented-immigrant-offending-rate-lower-us-born-citizen-rate

[sparky88]

Trump isn't campaigning like he thinks he's going to win.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

42 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

Trump isn't campaigning like he thinks he's going to win.

Which makes him dangerous.  Expect fleets of vehicles circling polling stations on November 5th blasting out YMCA at full volume to influence the auto-suggestible masses.

[ScotiaNostra]

I still have this feeling of dread that hes going to win

[Bully Wee Villa]

I fully expect him to win. He would have won last time if not for Covid. Racism is very popular in America (and f**king loads of other places, even more depressingly).

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Which makes him dangerous.  Expect fleets of vehicles circling polling stations on November 5th blasting out YMCA at full volume to influence the auto-suggestible masses.

Close:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/15/politics/wisconsin-voter-intimidation-text/index.html

[Freedom Farter]

11 hours ago, ScotiaNostra said:

It could be any voter but in this example it would be normally Dem voters who are opposed to current US policy in Israel/Palestine and for by whom,  I guess i really mean by anyone or group inside or outside of USA whos trying to influence the election by online targetting of specific groups of voters

 

when its such a tight race small influences could swing it

Both Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/17/russian-propagandists-targeted-african-americans-2016-election) and Israel (https://newrepublic.com/post/182267/israel-targeted-black-democrats-lawmakers-fake-social-media-accounts) specifically target Black Democratic voters. So the foreign influence operations by those two nations are objectively racist. I'd argue that going along with the narrative that the operations yield much success can also be racist because the evidence that either Russia or Israel have managed to sway Black Democratic voters to any significant extent is not there. Iran has done some hacking this time with the aim of damaging Republican chances (Iran want a Democratic president) but its small time compared to Russia's and Israel's previous efforts. Also, the disinformation about Israel's current military actions has all been domestic. The Biden administration and in particular Biden himself have been the wellspring of it. 

Michigan has significant numbers of Lebanese and Palestinian heritage voters. Its where the Uncommitted movement was founded. However, not voting for Harris was never the intention of that movement. Rather, it was about withdrawing their votes for Biden in the primaries (which were a formality) in the hope of having their concerns addressed. Those concerns are that their tax contributions are being spent on the arms which Israel then uses to murder their families in Lebanon and Palestine. The official social media accounts in recent days have made it clear to supporters to vote for Harris. Noura Erakat, a prominent figurehead of the movement, has publicly rejected Jill Stein's overtures.

Edited yesterday at 00:54 by Freedom Farter

[Angus_Don]

1 hour ago, ScotiaNostra said:

I still have this feeling of dread that hes going to win

I think he wins quite comfortably and takes a couple of the rust belt states. We've seen from the UK election that incumbent parties have done pretty poorly mainly because of inflation and bad economic performance.  Inflation, immigration and the economy will be the matters that win it for him.  Harris can try, but she can't hide from the perceived poor performance of Biden on these issues (some of it unfair imo).  

[BFTD]

43 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

I fully expect him to win. He would have won last time if not for Covid. Racism is very popular in America (and f**king loads of other places, even more depressingly).

Aye, he would absolutely have won if it wasn't for COVID. Depressingly, I don't think it was so much how he handled COVID, which exposed him as humiliatingly thick and/or callous, but just the fact that it happened on his watch.

Even more than his very popular racism, the worrying trend has been how much of the American public have openly embraced fascism, although most would likely be mortally offended to have that put to them (as with their racism). It would be absolutely hilarious if they somehow ended up with a Communist dictator after abandoning democracy so their guys can always be in cherge.

[bigmarv]

This sounds very familiar 

 

 

[GordonS]

On 16/10/2024 at 01:50, bigmarv said:

MI, PA & WI get harris to 270 and the win. Add the Brucey bonus of Nevada and she skooshes it 276-262. She’s ahead in all four by a decent amount, PA being the closest. 

I reckon we will see some major skullduggery by Trump minions in PA after the loss, claiming the same old shit as last time. 

Harris is not ahead by a decent amount. Her leads in the latest 538 poll tracker:

MI +0.7

PA +0.6

WI +0.6

NV +0.6

It would only take a tiny polling error for those to be wrong, and the polling error last time was about 4 points. Trump has been closing the gap in most of them - Harris led by 2.5 to 3 points in the Midwest swing states until about a month ago. 

18 hours ago, ScotiaNostra said:

I was listening to this podcast

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0023y99

There was a lady on it who had become pro-Palestine since a doxing incident. She said he had become radicalised in a good way. The thing that caught my attention was that she was voting Stein Green Party  because  of that. I would assumed she was most likely a democrat before this and would have voted Harris.

Do you think theres a lot like her and I may be wrong but showing disagreement with the Dems is fine but doing it in the election and giving Trump more chance of winning seems more likely to make things worse?

The woman in that podcast seems to be in New York. If I lived there I would definitely not vote Democrat - I would only do it if I lived in a marginal state.

The Greens in the US are absolutely mental too, of course. They have no sane political parties. All of government, politics, public life and media in the USA is buggered.

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, Angus_Don said:

I think he wins quite comfortably and takes a couple of the rust belt states. We've seen from the UK election that incumbent parties have done pretty poorly mainly because of inflation and bad economic performance.  Inflation, immigration and the economy will be the matters that win it for him.  Harris can try, but she can't hide from the perceived poor performance of Biden on these issues (some of it unfair imo).  

I suspect the opposite. The pollsters have been frantically “adjusting” to compensate for their failures in 2016 and 2020. 2020 was actually a polling success overall, with results closer to the best polls than the last 30 years. I think they will overestimate Trump’s support, and we’ll see Harris win at a decent clip…followed by bellows about fraud and “stop the steal”.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

I suspect the opposite. The pollsters have been frantically “adjusting” to compensate for their failures in 2016 and 2020. 2020 was actually a polling success overall, with results closer to the best polls than the last 30 years. I think they will overestimate Trump’s support, and we’ll see Harris win at a decent clip…followed by bellows about fraud and “stop the steal”.

Not that I'm enthusiastic about a Harris presidency, but I sincerely hope you are correct.

[TxRover]

7 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Not that I'm enthusiastic about a Harris presidency, but I sincerely hope you are correct.

You and me both, brother!

[BFTD]

13 hours ago, TxRover said:

I suspect the opposite. The pollsters have been frantically “adjusting” to compensate for their failures in 2016 and 2020. 2020 was actually a polling success overall, with results closer to the best polls than the last 30 years. I think they will overestimate Trump’s support, and we’ll see Harris win at a decent clip…followed by bellows about fraud and “stop the steal”.

It's a dirty conspiracy from the Radical Left to make it look like their votes might actually be important!

Kamabla is clearly running away with it. All the ethnics, women, and Marxists don't need to waste their time queuing to vote on November 5th; just stay home and do something you all enjoy (murdering babies or abusing yourselves).

[Bigmouth Strikes Again]

14 hours ago, TxRover said:

I suspect the opposite. The pollsters have been frantically “adjusting” to compensate for their failures in 2016 and 2020. 2020 was actually a polling success overall, with results closer to the best polls than the last 30 years. I think they will overestimate Trump’s support, and we’ll see Harris win at a decent clip…followed by bellows about fraud and “stop the steal”.

 

Pathetic desperation.

Keep plodding on though, hilarious.

Thank you.

 

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

Donnie continuing to go after the racist old wrestler demographic.

 

 

[carpetmonster]

26 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

Donnie continuing to go after the racist old wrestler demographic.

 

 

Probably raging because Dave Bautista called him a saggy-boobed old beeyatch earlier today. 

 

ETA - apologies; Bautista called him a whiny one, must've been someone else being disdainful of his moobies

 

He probably isn't getting invited to Martha Stewart's for Christmas either

 

Edited 6 hours ago by carpetmonster

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

29 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

Probably raging because Dave Bautista called him a saggy-boobed old beeyatch earlier today. 

 

ETA - apologies; Bautista called him a whiny one, must've been someone else being disdainful of his moobies

 

He probably isn't getting invited to Martha Stewart's for Christmas either

 

Big Dave seems like a sound c**t.

https://x.com/Variety/status/1846920052253032850?t=GnAPV7GBw0-u9oTdaQ3z-Q&s=19

 

He's like Dwayne Johnson, but with acting ability.