I HAD A DREAM…A VERY NASTY DREAM

[nate]

Some weird shit happens when you’re sleeping, none weirder or more disturbing than the nightmare I’ve just woken from a few minutes ago, in which the Brahan Seer, Scotland’s most famous futurologist, got off some barmy Group A Euro predictions. Look away now if you don’t want the willies up ye…

1) Spain gub us next month, and with two piss easy matches to come later on v Cyprus and Georgia, ease up and lose in Oslo with a complacent half-arsed performance a few days later, knowing they will still top the group with 18 points

2)Norway tan Cyprus in their next match,putting them on 13 points ahead of their Hampden visit

3) Scotland v Norway. The big November showdown. It’s do or die. Unfortunately Norway “do” and we “die”. 0-2. Another Hampden anticlimax. It’ the Czech Rep all over again. It’ Ukraiane all over again. Our poor home record against Norway continues and we lurch into the pants-shitting lottery of the play-offs.

is this scenario, this Euros Armageddon, even plausible? Or is the Brahan Seer talking his initials?

Please reassure me it was all just a dream.

[MarkoRaj]

You've missed out us v Georgia

I think we'll scud them

Also think Spain will beat Norway

Don't think there's too much to worry about. We global football still has us at 99.1% chance of qualification

Cool yer jets

[deadasdillinger]

This is where I'm at too. We lose to England, Spain and France then struggle in our last two games having lost momentum. Meanwhile Norway beat Spain and set us up for a high pressure game at Hampden. 

Just want it done and dusted ASAP so I can fucking relax!

[Ewanandmoreagain]

1 hour ago, nate said:

Some weird shit happens when you’re sleeping, none weirder or more disturbing than the nightmare I’ve just woken from a few minutes ago, in which the Brahan Seer, Scotland’s most famous futurologist, got off some barmy Group A Euro predictions. Look away now if you don’t want the willies up ye…

1) Spain gub us next month, and with two piss easy matches to come later on v Cyprus and Georgia, ease up and lose in Oslo with a complacent half-arsed performance a few days later, knowing they will still top the group with 18 points

2)Norway tan Cyprus in their next match,putting them on 13 points ahead of their Hampden visit

3) Scotland v Norway. The big November showdown. It’s do or die. Unfortunately Norway “do” and we “die”. 0-2. Another Hampden anticlimax. It’ the Czech Rep all over again. It’ Ukraiane all over again. Our poor home record against Norway continues and we lurch into the pants-shitting lottery of the play-offs.

is this scenario, this Euros Armageddon, even plausible? Or is the Brahan Seer talking his initials?

Please reassure me it was all just a dream.

Not a dream , a nightmare !

[nate]

2 hours ago, deadasdillinger said:

This is where I'm at too. We lose to England, Spain and France then struggle in our last two games having lost momentum. Meanwhile Norway beat Spain and set us up for a high pressure game at Hampden. 

Just want it done and dusted ASAP so I can fucking relax!

Me too mate. When the draw was made the game I was least looking forward to was Georgia away. We’ve got a 100% fail rate out there. Different players etc, but not an encouraging stat. I think it’s imperative we avoid a winner-takes-all final group game with Norway. My inner pessimist does not at all like that particular scenario of needing even a point in what would be an excruciating occasion, given our early sprint to the top of the group. We’ve seen too many defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory calamities  over the years as it is. Let’s hope poster MarkoRaj is right and Spain kill off Norway and we can all relax in November. 

[Dunfermline Don]

Perhaps I remember all that optimism and overconfidence in 1978 too deeply , but I have had this fear as well.

We are so unused to be at this stage of the qualifying and being almost there, normally we are looking at an unlikely series of results from other teams to squeeze into a playoff spot. 
 

I am still confident that we will qualify but certainly hope it is before the final game against Norway as we have seen how it goes when we go into a one off game with all the expectations on us. Croatia, Ukraine and last night(I know it was a friendly, but too many people were expecting a win).

 Let’s hope that we have got a bad game out of our system and can get something in the next couple of games. 

 

[Donathan]

The situation has worsened slightly after Norway won last night but we still only need ONE of the following scenarios to play out for us to qualify:

 

A) We win in Spain (would clinch the group outright) or Georgia (Think we have a >50% chance to win at least one of them) 

B) We get a point at home to Norway (70% chance) 

C) We draw in both Spain and Georgia. (unlikely) 
D) Norway drop points at home to Spain (70%-80% chance) 

E) Norway drop points in Cyprus (Nae chance) 

F) We draw with Spain and they lose 1 or draw 2 of Norway/Cyprus away and Georgia home (Highly unlikely) 

G) Draw with Georgia and Spain lose 2 or draw all 3 of Norway/Cyprus away and Georgia home (Nae chance) 

H) Spain get a maximum of 2 points from Norway/Cyprus away and Georgia home (Naw chance) 

[itzdrk]

12 minutes ago, Donathan said:

The situation has worsened slightly after Norway won last night but we still only need ONE of the following scenarios to play out for us to qualify:

 

A) We win in Spain (would clinch the group outright) or Georgia (Think we have a >50% chance to win at least one of them) 

B) We get a point at home to Norway (70% chance) 

C) We draw in both Spain and Georgia. (unlikely) 
D) Norway drop points at home to Spain (70%-80% chance) 

E) Norway drop points in Cyprus (Nae chance) 

F) We draw with Spain and they lose 1 or draw 2 of Norway/Cyprus away and Georgia home (Highly unlikely) 

G) Draw with Georgia and Spain lose 2 or draw all 3 of Norway/Cyprus away and Georgia home (Nae chance) 

H) Spain get a maximum of 2 points from Norway/Cyprus away and Georgia home (Naw chance) 

Easiest (doom) scenario is that we pick up one point from the remaining games, don't lose worse than 2-1 to Norway and also don't surrender all of our +12 goal difference over Norway.  

Quote

1. Tie

2. Tie

3. Tie

4. N/a

5. Scotland -

 

Edited September 13, 2023 by itzdrk

[craigkillie]

35 minutes ago, Donathan said:

The situation has worsened slightly after Norway won last night but we still only need ONE of the following scenarios to play out for us to qualify:

 

A) We win in Spain (would clinch the group outright) or Georgia (Think we have a >50% chance to win at least one of them) 

B) We get a point at home to Norway (70% chance) 

C) We draw in both Spain and Georgia. (unlikely) 
D) Norway drop points at home to Spain (70%-80% chance) 

E) Norway drop points in Cyprus (Nae chance) 

F) We draw with Spain and they lose 1 or draw 2 of Norway/Cyprus away and Georgia home (Highly unlikely) 

G) Draw with Georgia and Spain lose 2 or draw all 3 of Norway/Cyprus away and Georgia home (Nae chance) 

H) Spain get a maximum of 2 points from Norway/Cyprus away and Georgia home (Naw chance) 

I thought it was interesting that last night's result barely moved the needle in the simulations from the stats nerds, and they still have us with a 99.1% chance.

[Virtual Insanity]

If we draw in Spain we're through. That puts Spain on 10 points, meaning they can max at 19 but only by winning in Oslo. If they do that, Norway are out the running. If Norway win, Spain can only max at 16 and would lose out to us on head to head. If its a draw again Norway are out.

[Distant Doonhamer]

9 minutes ago, Virtual Insanity said:

If we draw in Spain we're through. That puts Spain on 10 points, meaning they can max at 19 but only by winning in Oslo. If they do that, Norway are out the running. If Norway win, Spain can only max at 16 and would lose out to us on head to head. If its a draw again Norway are out.

If we get a draw in Spain but lose our other 2 matches  we’ll have 16 points. Norway win all 3 of their games and end up also on 16 points. 
Spain get a point v us, lose to Norway and win their other 2 games they also have 16 points. 
How does the ranking work for 3 teams all on the same points? 

Edited September 13, 2023 by Distant Doonhamer

[Virtual Insanity]

6 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

If we get a draw in Spain but lose our other 2 matches  we’ll have 16 points. Norway win all 3 of their games and end up also on 16 points. 
Spain get a point v us, lose to Norway and win their other 2 games they also have 16 points. 
How does the ranking work for 3 teams all on the same points? 

I would imagine (open to being corrected) that it would then be a 'mini league' between the teams in which Norway have 6 points, Spain have 4 and we have 7? Hopefully...

[DC92]

It really only takes one unlikely result (Norway beating Spain) to set up a showdown in the last game, and that result isn't that unlikely. Spain are capable of dishing out gubbings but they've also got a soft side as we saw at Hampden and in a few of their games over the last few years. In their previous two qualifying campaigns they've lost and drawn in Sweden and drawn with Norway. In the Nations League they've lost in Ukraine and drawn away to Switzerland.

If that scenario transpires then we'll be nervy as f**k going into the final game with no wins in 4 and Norway having won a few on the bounce. People will push the narrative that we're on the verge of bottling it despite the fact that having 16 points out of 21 going into the last game would probably have been seen as near-ideal prior to the win in Oslo and certainly before the win over Spain. 

I think we'll have it wrapped up by next month, but if we don't it'll be a nervy few weeks before the Georgia game. I get that the simulations give us a 1 in 100 chance of fucking up, but that feels a bit generous to me.

[KirkieRR]

Can't see us getting anything in Spain. Georgia away is the key. No more tame distant away defeats. Absolutely the last thing we want is going into the Norway game needing even a single point. What a fearfest that would be.

No, let's hope other results go our way and we conquer our Georgian away bogey.

[Pie Of The Month]

6 minutes ago, Virtual Insanity said:

I would imagine (open to being corrected) that it would then be a 'mini league' between the teams in which Norway have 6 points, Spain have 4 and we have 7? Hopefully...

Yep, that's how it works.

[Jambomo]

Spain had their fright in losing to us, I expect them to be fully on it for all their remaining games. 
 

 

[accies1874]

20 minutes ago, KirkieRR said:

Can't see us getting anything in Spain. Georgia away is the key. No more tame distant away defeats. Absolutely the last thing we want is going into the Norway game needing even a single point. What a fearfest that would be.

No, let's hope other results go our way and we conquer our Georgian away bogey.

Nah we'll have qualified by then. Definitely seems like the most likely option is that we'll qualify due to Spain getting a result against Norway which would be anti-climactic but it would be nice having two less intense games at the end of a campaign. 

[VictorOnopko]

10 minutes ago, accies1874 said:

Nah we'll have qualified by then. Definitely seems like the most likely option is that we'll qualify due to Spain getting a result against Norway which would be anti-climactic but it would be nice having two less intense games at the end of a campaign. 

I agree with you that this is likely, but on the other hand it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Norway win against the current Spain side. 

Bottom line - as it has been in the past, more than once-  is that if we can't beat Georgia away then we don't deserve to be at a finals.  If we somehow f8ck it up again there and still need a point then it'd be a hugely pressurised final home match against Norway.  The kind of game we've not handled well in the recent past (Czechs, Ukraine).

[pub car king]

I think the most likely scenario is we lose to Spain. We then move on and losing to France but qualify with 2 games to go as Spain beat Norway.

[Gordon EF]

Every single one of these needs to happen for us not to qualify automatically

1. Norway beat Cyprus away (A) - very likely

2. We get a point or less against Spain (A) - very likely

3. Norway beat Spain (H) - unlikely

4. We get a point or less against Georgia (A) - 50/50

5. Norway beat us at Hampden - say 33.3% chance

Realistically, there are 3 matches where we have a big chance to qualify - Spain to get at least a point is Oslo in the 2nd October game day, us to beat Georgia in Tiblisi in the 1st November game day, us to get at least a point at Hampden against Norway on the last day.

I get being overly nervous but there is an enormous chance that at least one of these results happens. 

If we were in Norway's position, we wouldn't be giving ourselves a hope in hell.

If anyone wants to bet that we don't qualify, you're free to give me your money.