I HAD A DREAM…A VERY NASTY DREAM

[DC92]

3 hours ago, nate said:

I agree. Norway beating Spain isn’t as unlikely as some are suggesting, given the probable group situation/mentality at the time. You have a home side throwing the kitchen sink at Spain knowing it’s win or out. And you have a Spain side with two easy matches still to come, ensuring them top spot whatever. Norway will be the more motivated on this occasion. This scenario is of course dependent on Spain beating us in Seville, which unfortunately I think is very probable. We had an outlandishly meagre 25% possession against them at Hampden, which might be some kind of record for a winning underdog at International level (anyone know if it actually is?). Expect similar stats in Seville. And Spain will certainly not be as complacent/arrogant this time around by changing 8 players from their previous match. If we get anything from this fixture it will be joyous surprise imo.

 

2 hours ago, No_Problemo said:

If Spain lose to Norway they would be in real danger of not winning the group, so I find it very unlikely that Norway are going to be more motivated…

 

1 hour ago, Jaggy McJagface said:

If Spain don’t beat Norway then finishing top is no longer in their hands, even if they skelp us 10-0 in Seville. They won’t be treating it like a kick about.

The number of points you get also directly influences your seeding at the Euros. 18 points is very unlikely to be pot 1 but 21 points almost certainly would be.

[Gordon EF]

23 minutes ago, DC92 said:

Obviously there's no value in that at evens, but if you're offering 99/1 odds (per the stattos) then it might be worth a fiver.

Yeah, but that's kind of the point. If anyone's only willing to take the bet at silly odds then they're basically admitting that it's incredibly likely that we qualify.

[pub car king]

I think the issue is the now annual tradition of bed shitting we do at Hampden in big games has got everyone spooked now that we're so close. 

I'm almost wondering if Clarke set them up to play in a slightly different way last night but it went so badly we never saw what would happen. 

We will make it, personally I think it'll be Spain vs Norway that will get us over the line but who cares. 

[craigkillie]

There have been plenty of big games at Hampden where we haven't "shat the bed" in the same period. Sometimes teams lose football matches, it doesn't make them shite or bottlers unless they do it all the time.

[DC92]

12 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Yeah, but that's kind of the point. If anyone's only willing to take the bet at silly odds then they're basically admitting that it's incredibly likely that we qualify.

The silly odds are what's implied by the much-quoted nerd stats. I'm just saying I don't think it's quite that unlikely in reality.

I'm sure 99% is completely justifiable if you look at each fixture matchup with cold eyes like a computer simulation would. But a that approach obviously doesn't account for the psychological context of each game. Norway beating us (or beating us by a couple) at Hampden isn't especially likely in a vacuum, but it can be tricky to approach a home game only needing a point, especially after people had you as virtually qualified already. It's similar to the second leg of a European game where you can get some wacky scores in the 90 minutes. If Norway do beat Spain there's a decent chance that's the scenario we face.

There is a distinct possibility this is the trauma of Hearts 22/23 talking, mind. Like I said earlier, I'm very confident we'll qualify and I've got faith in this squad and manager to do the business even if Norway do take it down to the wire. I just won't completely relax until it's done. 

[Monkey Tennis]

It'll not come to it, but there are shades of qualifying for the 1990 World Cup here.

We only needed a point from any of our last 3 matches, away to Yugoslavia and France, followed by a final game at Hampden against Norway.  

We led in Yugoslavia before the roof fell in.  We got hammered in Paris, then drew 1-1 with Norway in a game that ended nervily as Leighton's collapse really got going. 

 

[Diamonds are Forever]

4 hours ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

Sorry but im not convinced that were suddenly going to turn into a hopeless heap of shite just because we got beat last night, will everycunt please get a grip

you get the players in a room, watch last nights game and go through the lessons learned snd apply it in training for next time

for fucks sake

 

I don't think anyone is saying we are, but we aren't world beaters either. We pulled a late win out the hat against Norway but were a few minutes away from losing the game, and beat a terrible Spain side. Other than that we've been fine. It therefore wouldn't take a massive turn of events for us to not beat Georgia and lose to Spain, which then means it's up to Norway whether they can get a result off Spain and take us to the last game. Given where we are now, Norway having a chance in the last game would be a huge psychological advantage to them and I really wouldn't fancy us. Norway are a pretty poor team overall but a side with Haaland and Odegaard could pull a result from somewhere.

I think we'll be fine just because there are a few chances both involving us and other team's results that it seems we must surely qualify, but I'm not as confident as most seem to be.

[No_Problemo]

24 minutes ago, Diamonds are Forever said:

 

I don't think anyone is saying we are, but we aren't world beaters either. We pulled a late win out the hat against Norway but were a few minutes away from losing the game, and beat a terrible Spain side. Other than that we've been fine. It therefore wouldn't take a massive turn of events for us to not beat Georgia and lose to Spain, which then means it's up to Norway whether they can get a result off Spain and take us to the last game. Given where we are now, Norway having a chance in the last game would be a huge psychological advantage to them and I really wouldn't fancy us. Norway are a pretty poor team overall but a side with Haaland and Odegaard could pull a result from somewhere.

I think we'll be fine just because there are a few chances both involving us and other team's results that it seems we must surely qualify, but I'm not as confident as most seem to be.

We clearly aren’t world beaters, but at the same time you are clearly under selling things by saying we beat a “terrible” Spain side, and have only been fine other than that. There have been a few excellent performances since the Euro’s - and the Spain performance was one of them.  

[craigkillie]

Worth noting that our goal difference is currently miles better than Norway's too - we're +11 and they're -1. That means there's also the possibility that if we lose in Spain, and draw in Georgia, then even a one-goal defeat at home to Norway could be enough for us to squeeze through.

That would rely on the combined winning margins of Spain v us, Norway v Spain and Norway v Cyprus being 9 goals or fewer, which seems more likely than not - though not guaranteed.

Edited September 13, 2023 by craigkillie

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

Have folk actually watched Norway?  

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

8 hours ago, nate said:

I agree. Norway beating Spain isn’t as unlikely as some are suggesting, given the probable group situation/mentality at the time. You have a home side throwing the kitchen sink at Spain knowing it’s win or out. And you have a Spain side with two easy matches still to come, ensuring them top spot whatever. Norway will be the more motivated on this occasion. This scenario is of course dependent on Spain beating us in Seville, which unfortunately I think is very probable. We had an outlandishly meagre 25% possession against them at Hampden, which might be some kind of record for a winning underdog at International level (anyone know if it actually is?). Expect similar stats in Seville. And Spain will certainly not be as complacent/arrogant this time around by changing 8 players from their previous match. If we get anything from this fixture it will be joyous surprise imo.

Spain would not be assured of top spot if they lost to Norway and we take 4 points from the last 2 games.  They'll be wanting to win the group 

[Gordon EF]

3 hours ago, DC92 said:

The silly odds are what's implied by the much-quoted nerd stats. I'm just saying I don't think it's quite that unlikely in reality.

I think 99%+ is probably a bit much but a quick calculation with even some fairly conservative numbers gives us a huge probability of qualifying.

Norway beat Cyprus - 95%

Us getting a point minimum in Spain - 10%

Norway beating Spain - 33%

Us beating Georgia - 50%

Us getting at worst a 1 goal defeat to Norway - 60%

All of that is already giving us around a 94% chance of qualification.

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

If the shoe was on the other foot, and we were relying on Norway winning 0 of these games, whilst we won all 3…

We’re damaged by our memories of Georgia. If it was Estonia instead, conceding at will and looking a shadow of the ‘dark horse’ for qualification, then we wouldn’t have remotely the same fear levels.

Edited September 14, 2023 by HuttonDressedAsLahm

[Diamonds are Forever]

9 hours ago, No_Problemo said:

We clearly aren’t world beaters, but at the same time you are clearly under selling things by saying we beat a “terrible” Spain side, and have only been fine other than that. There have been a few excellent performances since the Euro’s - and the Spain performance was one of them.  

 

I meant terrible in relative terms, I'm not saying they were San Marino, but by the standard of what you'd expect from Spain it was a terrible performance. That was obviously down to how we played too, it wasn't a criticism, it was a part of a wider point that it wouldn't take some big collapse for us to actually be in bother. We could play well away to Spain and lose (probably the most likely scenario), and then just fail to beat Georgia, neither of which require terrible performances to happen. That alone means that Norway have it in their hands to catch us. Obviously it requires a huge effort from Norway to win all those games and it's unlikely that they will, so I'm not too worried. But if they were to win their games up until the game at Hampden it wouldn't take a massive drop off for us to drop enough points to make that into a qualification decider.

Edited September 14, 2023 by Diamonds are Forever

[Sugar_Army]

We are top of our group.

5 wins, no draws or loses.

Only one goal conceded (soft pen).

Everybody is chasing us and have no margins for error so are under immense pressure (we all know only too well how that can effect a team).

Even a 1-0 defeat to Spain can still see us win the group.

Everybody would gladly swap positions with us.

 

Relax.

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Sugar_Army

[kennie makevin]

14 hours ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

Sorry but im not convinced that were suddenly going to turn into a hopeless heap of shite just because we got beat last night, will everycunt please get a grip

you get the players in a room, watch last nights game and go through the lessons learned snd apply it in training for next time

for fucks sake

....and get exactly the same result when up against better players. But I'm sure we'll get to the Euros, though I fear it will be merely to make up the numbers and boo the anthems. Still, that's progress of a sort.

 

 

 

[kennie makevin]

9 hours ago, No_Problemo said:

We clearly aren’t world beaters, but at the same time you are clearly under selling things by saying we beat a “terrible” Spain side, and have only been fine other than that. There have been a few excellent performances since the Euro’s - and the Spain performance was one of them.  

I'd say there has been a few excellent results rather than excellent performances. People getting those two things mixed up led imho to the insane hyperbole before the England game. What that match showed is that contrary to the perceived wisdom we do not have a world class midfield or a world class anything or anybody. What we do have is our best manager in charge since Willie Ormond.  We must trust that Mr Clarke steadies the nerves.

 

[deadasdillinger]

9 minutes ago, kennie makevin said:

 a world class anything or anybody.

If Andy Robertson isn't world class, given what he's achieved in the game, I'd be curious to know the 5 or 10 international LBs you'd say are ahead of him!

I always took world class to mean they were so good they'd be in contention to waltz in to any other team. There can't be many better than him, surely. 

[Molotov]

9 minutes ago, deadasdillinger said:

If Andy Robertson isn't world class

Not until he has won and lifted the World Cup with Scotland……

Not long to wait.  

[DC92]

8 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

I think 99%+ is probably a bit much but a quick calculation with even some fairly conservative numbers gives us a huge probability of qualifying.

Norway beat Cyprus - 95%

Us getting a point minimum in Spain - 10%

Norway beating Spain - 33%

Us beating Georgia - 50%

Us getting at worst a 1 goal defeat to Norway - 60%

All of that is already giving us around a 94% chance of qualification.

Yep, but my point is there's a big difference between a 1 in 100 chance and a 1 in 20 chance. Not trying to say it's any more likely than that.

9 hours ago, craigkillie said:

Worth noting that our goal difference is currently miles better than Norway's too - we're +11 and they're -1. That means there's also the possibility that if we lose in Spain, and draw in Georgia, then even a one-goal defeat at home to Norway could be enough for us to squeeze through.

I hate that I'm doing a lot of doom-mongering over something I don't actually think will happen, but can you imagine the atmosphere in Hampden if this is the case and Norway take the lead? Let's avoid that scenario entirely please.

If our only dropped points after 6 games are away to Spain then we'll deserve to wrap it up a month early and enjoy the last couple of games. Hopefully that's what happens.