I HAD A DREAM…A VERY NASTY DREAM

[Distant Doonhamer]

26 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Every single one of these needs to happen for us not to qualify automatically

2. We get a point or less against Spain (A) - very likely

I get being overly nervous but there is an enormous chance that at least one of these results happens. 

If we were in Norway's position, we wouldn't be giving ourselves a hope in hell.

If anyone wants to bet that we don't qualify, you're free to give me your money.

Outlined above that one point against Spain would mean we qualify.

One point v Spain gives us 16 points if we lose our other 2 games.

Norway need to win all 3 games to get 16 points.

If Spain draw with us and lose to Norway they get to 16 points assuming they win their other 2 games.

If all that happens we end up in a 3 way tie with Spain and Norway but would top the group on the first decider which is points gained in the matches between the tied teams.

Edited September 13, 2023 by Distant Doonhamer

[KirkieRR]

54 minutes ago, accies1874 said:

Nah we'll have qualified by then. Definitely seems like the most likely option is that we'll qualify due to Spain getting a result against Norway which would be anti-climactic but it would be nice having two less intense games at the end of a campaign. 

Well, let's hope so. Anti-climactic success is good, if you want my view. A party-Hampden v Norway, with chants of 'You're not going to Germany!' even if Haaland nets four, would be ideal.

[forameus]

55 minutes ago, Jambomo said:

Spain had their fright in losing to us, I expect them to be fully on it for all their remaining games. 
 

 

I think if Spain were continuing to have their wobbles, we would have seen it in the games since they returned from the Nations League.  They've scored 13 in 2 games.  I expect the cavalier performance we had in Hampden will be nowhere to be seen, and 9 times out of 10 they're winning comfortably.  Could perhaps see a backs-to-the-wall draw or win, but it's going to be incredibly difficult.

What I worry about is this run of 3 fixtures - England, Spain, France.  More often than not, we lose all three, and depending on other results we go from riding high and confident to looking over our shoulders.

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

44 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Every single one of these needs to happen for us not to qualify automatically

1. Norway beat Cyprus away (A) - very likely

2. We get a point or less against Spain (A) - very likely

3. Norway beat Spain (H) - unlikely

4. We get a point or less against Georgia (A) - 50/50

5. Norway beat us at Hampden - say 33.3% chance

Realistically, there are 3 matches where we have a big chance to qualify - Spain to get at least a point is Oslo in the 2nd October game day, us to beat Georgia in Tiblisi in the 1st November game day, us to get at least a point at Hampden against Norway on the last day.

I get being overly nervous but there is an enormous chance that at least one of these results happens. 

If we were in Norway's position, we wouldn't be giving ourselves a hope in hell.

If anyone wants to bet that we don't qualify, you're free to give me your money.

This is exactly it.  If the shoe was on the other foot, we wouldn't be expecting anything at all.

Worth also remembering that Norway absolutely bottled the last UNL as well.  

Beat Serbia at home, Sweden H+A, and drew at home to Slovenia.  They then lost at home to Serbia and away to Slovenia without scoring and whilst having Haaland in the side.

They have a world class striker, and a world class attacking midfielder.  The rest of the side is nowhere near that level.

[Gordon EF]

32 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

Outlined above that one point against Spain would mean we qualify.

One point v Spain gives us 16 points if we lose our other 2 games.

Norway need to win all 3 games to get 16 points.

If Spain draw with us and lose to Norway they get to 16 points assuming they win their other 2 games.

If all that happens we end up in a 3 way tie with Spain and Norway but would top the group on the first decider which is points gained in the matches between the tied teams.

Ooft. Good working out.

[MarkoRaj]

So we need 1 point from Spain (a) or Norway (h)

Or 3 points from Georgia (a)

I mean that's a dream scenario if you'd been offered it at the start of the group

Edited September 13, 2023 by MarkoRaj

[nate]

1 hour ago, DC92 said:

It really only takes one unlikely result (Norway beating Spain) to set up a showdown in the last game, and that result isn't that unlikely. Spain are capable of dishing out gubbings but they've also got a soft side as we saw at Hampden and in a few of their games over the last few years. In their previous two qualifying campaigns they've lost and drawn in Sweden and drawn with Norway. In the Nations League they've lost in Ukraine and drawn away to Switzerland.

If that scenario transpires then we'll be nervy as f**k going into the final game with no wins in 4 and Norway having won a few on the bounce. People will push the narrative that we're on the verge of bottling it despite the fact that having 16 points out of 21 going into the last game would probably have been seen as near-ideal prior to the win in Oslo and certainly before the win over Spain. 

I think we'll have it wrapped up by next month, but if we don't it'll be a nervy few weeks before the Georgia game. I get that the simulations give us a 1 in 100 chance of fucking up, but that feels a bit generous to me.

I agree. Norway beating Spain isn’t as unlikely as some are suggesting, given the probable group situation/mentality at the time. You have a home side throwing the kitchen sink at Spain knowing it’s win or out. And you have a Spain side with two easy matches still to come, ensuring them top spot whatever. Norway will be the more motivated on this occasion. This scenario is of course dependent on Spain beating us in Seville, which unfortunately I think is very probable. We had an outlandishly meagre 25% possession against them at Hampden, which might be some kind of record for a winning underdog at International level (anyone know if it actually is?). Expect similar stats in Seville. And Spain will certainly not be as complacent/arrogant this time around by changing 8 players from their previous match. If we get anything from this fixture it will be joyous surprise imo.

[Dunfermline Don]

Can I ask the dreaded question, has anyone ever failed to qualify after winning their first 5 games? 

[craigkillie]

1 hour ago, VictorOnopko said:

Bottom line - as it has been in the past, more than once-  is that if we can't beat Georgia away then we don't deserve to be at a finals.  If we somehow f8ck it up again there and still need a point then it'd be a hugely pressurised final home match against Norway.  The kind of game we've not handled well in the recent past (Czechs, Ukraine).

I don't think the bolded part is really fair. Good teams still lose games, the point is not losing lots of them. You could have folk saying "if Argentina can't beat Saudi Arabia then they don't deserve to win a World Cup".

A draw in Georgia would be a perfectly fine result on its own, it's the context around it which will be the issue.

 

[MarkoRaj]

It would be rather cathartic to seal it with a win away to Georgia

[No_Problemo]

46 minutes ago, nate said:

I agree. Norway beating Spain isn’t as unlikely as some are suggesting, given the probable group situation/mentality at the time. You have a home side throwing the kitchen sink at Spain knowing it’s win or out. And you have a Spain side with two easy matches still to come, ensuring them top spot whatever. Norway will be the more motivated on this occasion. This scenario is of course dependent on Spain beating us in Seville, which unfortunately I think is very probable. We had an outlandishly meagre 25% possession against them at Hampden, which might be some kind of record for a winning underdog at International level (anyone know if it actually is?). Expect similar stats in Seville. And Spain will certainly not be as complacent/arrogant this time around by changing 8 players from their previous match. If we get anything from this fixture it will be joyous surprise imo.

If Spain lose to Norway they would be in real danger of not winning the group, so I find it very unlikely that Norway are going to be more motivated…

[Gordon EF]

1 hour ago, nate said:

I agree. Norway beating Spain isn’t as unlikely as some are suggesting, given the probable group situation/mentality at the time. You have a home side throwing the kitchen sink at Spain knowing it’s win or out. And you have a Spain side with two easy matches still to come, ensuring them top spot whatever. Norway will be the more motivated on this occasion. This scenario is of course dependent on Spain beating us in Seville, which unfortunately I think is very probable. We had an outlandishly meagre 25% possession against them at Hampden, which might be some kind of record for a winning underdog at International level (anyone know if it actually is?). Expect similar stats in Seville. And Spain will certainly not be as complacent/arrogant this time around by changing 8 players from their previous match. If we get anything from this fixture it will be joyous surprise 

All from World Cup 2022...

Morocco beat Portugal with 27%

Japan beat Germany with 26%

Morocco beat Spain (pens) with 23%

Japan beat Spain with 17%

It's not particularly freakish anymore to see this when you have one team who're deliberately going out to let the opponents have possession in safe areas and capitalise on mistakes as an explicit tactic.

I don't buy for a second that Spain will take some laid back attitude into the Norway game. If they beat us and lose to Norway, they'll still be in 3rd place going into the last two games and be in danger of not winning the group. Plus, even if they do qualify, they'll know they'll take heavy criticism for losing two games to Scotland and Norway in one qualification campaign.

Going into a game against Spain knowing that you have to win in the 90 and, to some extent, play of the front foot, isn't exactly a great place to be.

Spain have only lost 6 games in the 90 across 37 competition fixtures since the start of 2020. It's not unforeseeable but it's considerably more likely that Norway don't win than they do.

[Jaggy McJagface]

1 hour ago, nate said:

I agree. Norway beating Spain isn’t as unlikely as some are suggesting, given the probable group situation/mentality at the time. You have a home side throwing the kitchen sink at Spain knowing it’s win or out. And you have a Spain side with two easy matches still to come, ensuring them top spot whatever. Norway will be the more motivated on this occasion. This scenario is of course dependent on Spain beating us in Seville, which unfortunately I think is very probable. We had an outlandishly meagre 25% possession against them at Hampden, which might be some kind of record for a winning underdog at International level (anyone know if it actually is?). Expect similar stats in Seville. And Spain will certainly not be as complacent/arrogant this time around by changing 8 players from their previous match. If we get anything from this fixture it will be joyous surprise imo.

If Spain don’t beat Norway then finishing top is no longer in their hands, even if they skelp us 10-0 in Seville. They won’t be treating it like a kick about.

[nate]

32 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

All from World Cup 2022...

Morocco beat Portugal with 27%

Japan beat Germany with 26%

Morocco beat Spain (pens) with 23%

Japan beat Spain with 17%

It's not particularly freakish anymore to see this when you have one team who're deliberately going out to let the opponents have possession in safe areas and capitalise on mistakes as an explicit tactic.

I don't buy for a second that Spain will take some laid back attitude into the Norway game. If they beat us and lose to Norway, they'll still be in 3rd place going into the last two games and be in danger of not winning the group. Plus, even if they do qualify, they'll know they'll take heavy criticism for losing two games to Scotland and Norway in one qualification campaign.

Going into a game against Spain knowing that you have to win in the 90 and, to some extent, play of the front foot, isn't exactly a great place to be.

Spain have only lost 6 games in the 90 across 37 competition fixtures since the start of 2020. It's not unforeseeable but it's considerably more likely that Norway don't win than they do.

Cheers. You have brightened my mood immeasurably. Germany here we come, then. Whatever, the Norway-Spain match is TV unmissable, particularly since it doesn’t clash with any of our fixtures. I guess we’re hoping for a draw here, tho I’ll still be investing a bob on the homesters at what should be pretty tempting odds.

Your possession stats also brought a smile to my angst ridden chops. 17%? (Japan v Spain) There is something ridiculous, if not surreal, about this, even allowing for the tactical nous behind it. Somehow it just doesn’t seem fair. You wonder if 17% could even be surpassed, out there in Seville next month.

[Gordon EF]

7 minutes ago, nate said:

Cheers. You have brightened my mood immeasurably. Germany here we come, then. Whatever, the Norway-Spain match is TV unmissable, particularly since it doesn’t clash with any of our fixtures. I guess we’re hoping for a draw here, tho I’ll still be investing a bob on the homesters at what should be pretty tempting odds.

Your possession stats also brought a smile to my angst ridden chops. 17%? (Japan v Spain) There is something ridiculous, if not surreal, about this, even allowing for the tactical nous behind it. Somehow it just doesn’t seem fair. You wonder if 17% could even be surpassed, out there in Seville next month.

I'll be dusting off the old Spain top from 2010.

It's also worth mentioning that Norway haven't beaten a seed 1 or 2 team in qualifying for 8 years. They're going to have to do it twice in a month if they want to qualify ahead of us.

[greenockraver]

You get the feeling Norway v Spain is gonna be the biggest game in the whole group

[effeffsee_the2nd]

Sorry but im not convinced that were suddenly going to turn into a hopeless heap of shite just because we got beat last night, will everycunt please get a grip

you get the players in a room, watch last nights game and go through the lessons learned snd apply it in training for next time

for fucks sake

[Monkey Tennis]

I'm very pessimistic by nature, and especially where football is concerned.

I'm also seriously concerned by last night's performance and result.

 

Despite this though, I think there's no way on earth that we're not qualifying for Germany.  

[Miguel Sanchez]

5 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

Sorry but im not convinced that were suddenly going to turn into a hopeless heap of shite just because we got beat last night, will everycunt please get a grip

you get the players in a room, watch last nights game and go through the lessons learned snd apply it in training for next time

for fucks sake

We're never going to win a game again actually. Sorry.

[DC92]

4 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

If anyone wants to bet that we don't qualify, you're free to give me your money.

Obviously there's no value in that at evens, but if you're offering 99/1 odds (per the stattos) then it might be worth a fiver.