Donathan Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 Scotland will qualify for Euro 2024 if Norway drop points at home to Spain on Sunday, or if Scotland beat Georgia next month or get at least a point at home to Norway. A 1-goal defeat to Norway and a point in Georgia will also be enough unless Norway beat Spain by 4 goals. Scotland will win group A if they win both of their remaining matches and Spain drop any points. If any of England, Hungary or both Belgium and Austria drop points, then that would also be enough for pot 1. Even if Spain win their remaining matches to win group A, Scotland will be in pot 2 if they win their two remaining matches and either Netherlands fail to beat France tonight, or either Netherlands or France drop any more points. If Scotland have poor results in November (but still finish 2nd) then it’s highly likely we will drop to pot 3. Only a disaster scenario would see us drop to pot 4. We Global have the following probabilities: Win group: 31.6% Second: 65.4% Third: 3.0% Below third: 0.0% Pot 1: 17.8% Pot 2: 29.4% Pot 3: 48.8% Pot 4: 0.9% Playoffs: 3.0% Out completely: 0.0% 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottsdad Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 Seeding chat? Seething chat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaggy McJagface Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 (edited) These are the current pot projections. Looking at these, I wouldn’t say there’s a significant advantage to being pot 2 over pot 3. If Croatia drop any more points then we will likely have a 50/50 chance of drawing a team who are clearly better than us from pot 3. I’d genuinely fancy our chances against the pot 2 teams more. Edited October 13, 2023 by Jaggy McJagface 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted October 13, 2023 Author Share Posted October 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Jaggy McJagface said: These are the current pot projections. Looking at these, I wouldn’t say there’s a significant advantage to being pot 2 over pot 3. If Croatia drop any more points then we will likely have a 50/50 chance of drawing a team who are clearly better than us from pot 3. I’d genuinely fancy our chances against the pot 2 teams more. Yes fair point. If the new system gives teams like us a better chance to reach the higher pots, the corollary to that is that the lower pots contain tougher opposition and makes the the higher seeding inherently less valuable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 How on Earth are Albania in pot 2? Some very well managed friendlies? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 The seeding for the Euros is based on qualifying performance, and they're on course to win their group ahead of Poland and the Czech Republic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoP Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 2 hours ago, Autistisches Nilpferd said: How on Earth are Albania in pot 2? Some very well managed friendlies? Whichever pot Albania are in we want to be in as well because you can bet your house that if we draw them we’ll be remembering them in the same way we do Iran in 50 years time 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microdave Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 People say that football is a game of small margins. Spain's second goal (or our disallowed one if you want to go down that route) could be the difference between us being in pot 1 or 3. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qos_75 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 8 hours ago, Jaggy McJagface said: These are the current pot projections. Looking at these, I wouldn’t say there’s a significant advantage to being pot 2 over pot 3. If Croatia drop any more points then we will likely have a 50/50 chance of drawing a team who are clearly better than us from pot 3. I’d genuinely fancy our chances against the pot 2 teams more. I would welcome that first column as a group. Germany, Hungary, us and Finland. Yes, please! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuttonDressedAsLahm Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, Autistisches Nilpferd said: How on Earth are Albania in pot 2? Some very well managed friendlies? Seedings are based entirely on Qualification performance. Albania’s results have been quite frankly astonishing so far. They beat the Czechs 3-0 last night. Edited October 13, 2023 by HuttonDressedAsLahm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaggy McJagface Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 With those results tonight, we are now guaranteed to be in pot 2 if we take 6 points from our remaining two games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuttonDressedAsLahm Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Jaggy McJagface said: With those results tonight, we are now guaranteed to be in pot 2 if we take 6 points from our remaining two games. If Spain do the business on Sunday, I think everyone would enjoy the challenge of the last two games. When we've needed certain results we've managed it in the last few occasions. Getting rid of the Georgia memories, and then a packed out Hampden to send us off against Norway is just the stuff dreams are made of. Even better if Sunday is just a draw, then we'd be playing to win the group. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaggy McJagface Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said: If Spain do the business on Sunday, I think everyone would enjoy the challenge of the last two games. When we've needed certain results we've managed it in the last few occasions. Getting rid of the Georgia memories, and then a packed out Hampden to send us off against Norway is just the stuff dreams are made of. Even better if Sunday is just a draw, then we'd be playing to win the group. Sunday being a draw would be the perfect scenario but it would be far too arse clenchy if they are level going into the last few minutes for my liking. The sporting advantages in being pot 2 over pot 3 are actually pretty minimal, but it would still be great to be able to say we were the best runners up with 21/24 points and would be a real statement of intent with us going into next summer with a great deal of confidence. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadasdillinger Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 6 hours ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said: Even better if Sunday is just a draw, then we'd be playing to win the group. This is what I've been thinking about a lot since the game. A draw tomorrow is just ideal. Paps Norway to f**k out of it, we get to party and sing about going to Germany, all while giving us a very realistic shot at topping the group. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugar_Army Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 1 hour ago, deadasdillinger said: This is what I've been thinking about a lot since the game. A draw tomorrow is just ideal. Paps Norway to f**k out of it, we get to party and sing about going to Germany, all while giving us a very realistic shot at topping the group. ...Where our last two game would be against teams with no chance of qualifying. We would be going into them knowing we were going to Germany and highly motivated top the group. The flip side would be that other than group placings, Georgia and Norway would have free hits. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 7 hours ago, Jaggy McJagface said: With those results tonight, we are now guaranteed to be in pot 2 if we take 6 points from our remaining two games. That is actually massive Given the fact not all group winners get pot 1, we'd have potentially been looking at pot 2 even if we'd lost 1-0 v Spain 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honest_Man#1 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 20 minutes ago, MarkoRaj said: That is actually massive Given the fact not all group winners get pot 1, we'd have potentially been looking at pot 2 even if we'd lost 1-0 v Spain Had a look at other groups, and if it’s a draw Sunday, then us winning our last 2 games leaving us on 21 points means the below teams will very likely win their groups with more points than us: France England Belgium Portugal + hosts Germany So I think we would be pot 1 if it’s a draw Sunday and we win our last 2. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkst Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 15 hours ago, microdave said: People say that football is a game of small margins. Spain's second goal (or our disallowed one if you want to go down that route) could be the difference between us being in pot 1 or 3. Yep, total sickener 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted October 14, 2023 Author Share Posted October 14, 2023 6 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said: Had a look at other groups, and if it’s a draw Sunday, then us winning our last 2 games leaving us on 21 points means the below teams will very likely win their groups with more points than us: France England Belgium Portugal + hosts Germany So I think we would be pot 1 if it’s a draw Sunday and we win our last 2. The only other one to watch out for is Hungary who have five fewer points than us but two games in hand. We only need one of them, England or Belgium to drop points (as well as Spain) and then pot 1 is in our own hands 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) It’s a long shot given their remaining opponents, but if we win our last two games and Spain drop any points then we are in pot 1. If we win our last two but Spain still win the group we are in pot 2. Any dropped points we probably fall to pot 3. Edited October 18, 2023 by Donathan 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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