State of the group and seeding chat

[Spikethedee]

8 hours ago, Gordopolis said:

Yikes! By that graphic, I'd say pot 3 is better for us.

Until we draw Spain from Pot 2, of course...

[Gordopolis]

3 hours ago, Spikethedee said:

Until we draw Spain from Pot 2, of course...

Spain, our new Israel

[MarkoRaj]

Spain will most likely be in pot 1

Much of a muchness for sure between 2 and 3 even account for predicted future results

[Elgin Macca]

27 minutes ago, MarkoRaj said:

Spain will most likely be in pot 1

Much of a muchness for sure between 2 and 3 even account for predicted future results

France/Netherlands/Scotland/Italy - guaranteed  

[Binos]

I can't see Israel playing in the tournament 

[Gordon EF]

Very decent chance that Denmark and Switzerland will end up in pot 2 in place of Slovenia and Romania, which would change the way things look a bit.

Chances are there will be very little to choose between pots 2 and 3 when they're finalised.

Obviously everyone plays their way into these pots but not every qualifying group is equal. Much easier to play your way into pot 2 when the top seed in your qualifying group is Poland, as opposed to France, Spain, or England.

[craigkillie]

Only one group runner-up ends up in Pot 2 - everyone else in that pot will have won their group.

[Tartan Dave]

I just hope we avoid England and Israel. 

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

18 hours ago, Binos said:

I can't see Israel playing in the tournament 

Agreed.  They were in a good position - but having 2 matches postponed, then having to play a quadruple header when others are playing twice, and with your home games in Hungary...

It looks to be Israel, Bosnia (confirmed), Finland (confirmed), and Iceland/Ukraine in League B playoffs.

League A is almost definitely

• Czechia/Poland (effectively 100% 1 or the other, unless Moldova do something special)
• Croatia/Wales (effectively 100% 1 or the other, unless Armenia do something special)
• Estonia (from League D)
• Iceland/Ukraine from League B

If Ukraine qualify directly, then Italy would be in playoff A, with Iceland taking up the League B spot.  

For Norway to get a playoff spot, they require Israel and Switzerland to qualify directly.  As above, Romania have a 5-point lead over Israel, albeit they've played two games more so it just looks implausible.

I'd fancy Ukraine as the clear favourites to qualify through the playoffs.  I don't believe We Global Football have made any adjustments to account for Israel's logistical difficulties.

Edited November 9, 2023 by HuttonDressedAsLahm

[Gordon EF]

19 hours ago, craigkillie said:

Only one group runner-up ends up in Pot 2 - everyone else in that pot will have won their group.

But winning a particular group doesn't mean you're a better team than a team who finish 2nd in a different group.

[craigkillie]

Of course not, but a lot of the "harder" teams in Pot 3 will have finished behind some of the "easier" teams in Pot 2, for example Slovenia and Denmark (for now).

[bleedingums]

I’d imagine, given the general quality of teams in Europe, that we’re going to end up in a group of similar quality to the last euros, no matter which pot we’re in. The difference, though, is that the squad is better than it was then and outwith France, England and probably Portugal, I’d fancy our chances against almost everyone else for at least some kind of result.
 

If we’d beaten the Czechs, we’d have gone through to the next round. That’s the only difference we really need this time around and I’d say Ukraine, Denmark and Spain are all better than that Czech team.

[forameus]

Italy are probably the best example of names not meaning quality necessarily.  We've been at as many tournaments in the past three than they have.  Granted they won that one, but they're perfectly capable of being absolutely shite.  If you go back further, they've been disappointing (based on the name at least) since they won the World Cup in 2006.  Group Stage in 2010 and 2014, not even there in 2018 and 2022.  Fared better in the Euros, but outside of 2020 (which they followed up by failing to get to 2022) they've had a couple of quarter finals and getting absolutely horsed off Spain in the final in 2012 (were they not pretty shit at that tournament too from memory?)

Ultimately, the seedings largely represent where a nation should be now they've gotten away from it being easily manipulated.  Any team we'll draw is going to pose a problem to us, but on the other hand, outside of a few obvious examples, there aren't any sides we should be actively fearing.  This format really just needs a win to be in with a chance of the knockouts, and that's definitely not beyond us.

[2426255]

We'll be drawing potential opponents mostly around our general level and a few that are a lot better. Three game groups allow for more unpredictability and less room for error and so while one good result might even be enough to see us qualify, we might play reasonably well in two of the games - but pick up only one point and crash out like we did at Euro 2020.

The first group game will be key, if we can win that then it puts you in a great place and hopefully we get the rub of the green.

Edited November 11, 2023 by 2426255

[East Calder Lion]

So even if we win our two remaining games we could still end up in a group with England,  Netherlands and Italy?!

[Bully Wee Villa]

I think we now finish as best runner-up (and therefore secure the final second seed spot) only if we beat Norway by two goals, or by one goal scoring at least four (4-3, 5-4, etc).

Any other one goal win would only be enough in the unlikely event that Belgium fail to win at home to Azerbaijan.

This is assuming no miracle from Georgia in Spain. If the Georgians somehow win then any Scotland win would secure top spot in the group (and minimum second seed).

Edited November 16, 2023 by Bully Wee Villa

[2426255]

15 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

I think we now finish as best runner-up (and therefore secure the final second seed spot) only if we beat Norway by two goals, or by one goal scoring at least four (4-3, 5-4, etc).

A one goal win would only be enough in the unlikely event that Belgium fail to win at home to Azerbaijan.

This is assuming no miracle from Georgia in Spain. If they somehow avoid defeat then any Scotland win would secure top spot in the group (and minimum second seed).

Spain have 18 points, Scotland have 16 points, Spain have a better goal difference and so if Spain draw against Georgia and Scotland beat Norway then Spain will finish top.

[Bully Wee Villa]

Oh yes for some reason I was thinking we were one point behind them. Will edit, thanks.

[2426255]

Just on the state of the group it appears that the Spain home win and currently the Norway away win (which can still be evened out on Sunday) are the key results for Scotland where qualification has been won and lost. It could end up being a fairly thin margin that wins us our place at the Euro's in the end given how the Norway game in Oslo played out. The Cyprus and Georgia games are like for like, so haven't been pivotal.

 

Edited November 17, 2023 by 2426255

[2426255]

8 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

I think we now finish as best runner-up (and therefore secure the final second seed spot) only if we beat Norway by two goals, or by one goal scoring at least four (4-3, 5-4, etc).

If Scotland beat Norway 3-2 then we would lose out on the final pot-2 seeding as we've won less games away from home which would be an odd one.

Better than losing on fair play which we would also do as we've been a little too dirty in this qualifying campaign, picking up 18 yellow cards (18 points) so far to Austria's 13 yellows and 1 red as a consequence of two yellows (16 points).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying#Criteria_for_overall_ranking

Edited November 17, 2023 by 2426255