Who’s on the plane?

[2426255]

24 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

I'm not sure he needs "more of a challenge" any more than say Calum McGregor does but there's no denying he's playing in a lower level of football than even the English 2nd tier is. However, he is also scoring against the OF at the moment and within the confines of where he actually is, it's hard to see how he could have done much more to impress in the last 4 months. From not even making the squad against Georgia originally, he's now the most in form player in Scotland.

I hesitated to describe Boyd as a flat track bully. He kind of was in that he scored a lot of goals with Rangers when the rest of their team just laid things on for him and he didn't really do that well anywhere else other than Kilmarnock. That said, he did in three different spells score regularly for Killie and they certainly weren't a dominant side at their level. He didn't though have much else to his game besides scoring goals and to an extent was a passenger in a team that didn't get in the opposition box regularly. Which is why he didn't get all that many caps for Scotland.

Shankland's issue is different. He's a goalscorer AND he's a fine footballer. He's not a very top footballer because he's too slow. And that won't change but he has adapted his game better to use the attributes he does have I think. He's learning all the time and getting better and better. He's never a flat track bully because his short spell with Dundee United in the Championship apart he's never played in a team that dominates other teams. He's playing in relatively average teams. Ayr in the Championship (and League One) and Hearts in the Premiership aren't particularly special sides. There were better sides in both divisions but Shankland MADE them a far better side.

Do I think he's going to get much of a kick if he starts against Germany, Hungary and Switzerland? Doubt it. We'll need the energy and pace of Adams or Dykes to lead the line there (and perhaps Dykes defensive side too particularly against the Germans). But if we're 1-0 down in game three and need a draw to get through I know which one is more likely to find the net. Probably more likely than anyone eligible for our squad to do so, even McGinn and McTominay. There's a long three months or so ahead and there may be injuries both to him or others that changes the playing field, but I don't really think it's in question right now he's in our 23.

Fair enough. It's all about opinions. The only thing I take issue with is people saying he's nailed on. It's still open in my opinion. 

If Brown or less likey Nisbet finish their club season's strongly it would change the picture.

[Skyline Drifter]

4 minutes ago, 2426255 said:

Fair enough. It's all about opinions. The only thing I take issue with is people saying he's nailed on. It's still open in my opinion. 

If Brown or less likey Nisbet finish their club season's strongly it would change the picture.

Indeed. Depends what you mean by "nailed on". I don't disagree (obviously) that things can change over the next three months but I think he'd be 'nailed on' if the squad was being picked tomorrow.

I don't think either Dykes or Adams place is in any real threat barring injury but for a left field thought it worth noting Dykes isn't even getting a start from QPR at the moment either and was playing an advance midfield role for the 3 or 4 games before he lost his place, He hasn't played as a striker since about Xmas. Not a major concern right now but hopefully he's not going to sit on a bench for the next three months. Adams is at least back playing for an in form Southampton side (this week's gubbing by Bristol notwithstanding) and contributing the odd goal.

[No_Problemo]

7 hours ago, craigkillie said:

Boyd adapted his game towards the end of his career, perhaps as a result of his time in Turkey and the USA, or perhaps just because he was smart enough to realise that he needed to, in his latter two spells at Killie I'd say he was much more of a well-rounded player, his link-up play was really good and he was a leader on the pitch. If he'd been that player earlier in his career, and if he hadn't spat the dummy with Burley, I think he'd have had 15-20 more caps.

His international goalscoring record was good, but it's correct to point out he didn't score against anyone decent. At Killie he did score a relatively high number of goals against Rangers and Aberdeen while they were battling for 2nd and 3rd, so it's not fair to say that he only scored against minnows. Scoring 136 goals for a club the size of Killie in this era, and 126 of them against top flight opposition, is an incredible achievement, even before you look at the similar number he scored for Rangers. People can talk about it being easy to score for Rangers, but if that's true why have very few others been scoring 25+ per season for them, as he did in each of his four full years there? I think Morelos (twice) is the only other player to do it for them in a season where they've been playing in the top flight.

Shankland is in a similar boat, he started out as a goalscorer, his record is prodigious wherever he has been in Scotland, at least since he screwed the nut a bit at Ayr, and as he has got older, the rest of his all-round game has developed. If he makes the right choices for the rest of his career, which I'd suggest probably involves staying in Scotland, then he has a good chance of picking up a few more caps. Whether those caps come at a major finals against top class opposition is a different story though.

The only thing to add to this is that Shankland was never just a goal scorer. His all round game has obviously developed as he has got older, but he was an excellent focal point at Ayr too. 

[DC92]

On 15/02/2024 at 11:16, Skyline Drifter said:

 

I still think it's very difficult to take Craig Gordon if he's not playing for Hearts. So far, despite being fit now, he's managed a couple of Scottish Cup starts. His best chance barring injury to Clark, is that Hearts go on to make the final of it and get him at least another 3 games in it, and that with 3rd place secured early, Naismith starts giving him league game time post split. Stevie Clarke's loyal but he's not going to throw a squad place at someone who hasn't justified it. If Hearts lose the next cup tie and Clark plays out the league season I don't think Gordon goes.

That said, Kelly's 'form' this season isn't exactly making that decision a certainty. Either way I think that's the most difficult phone call he's going to have to make on squad announcement day.

Naismith seems to be quite confident they can both get in the squad and, given he'll know Clarke pretty well, I'd be surprised if that topic hasn't been discussed. It's also no secret that Gordon is desperate to go to Germany, but he was happy enough with the current arrangement to sign a new contract.

It looks like Clark will continue as number one for now but I'm certain Gordon will continue to get game time one way or another. As long as he's fit, has played a few games and still looks up to it, I don't see Clarke having any issues taking him as the third keeper over Kelly.

If Gordon fully supplants Clark at Hearts and the latter is benched for the rest of the season, that's another story. His spot on the plane is more vulnerable than Gordon's IMO.

[MazzyStar]

Glenn Middleton 

[Skyline Drifter]

1 hour ago, DC92 said:

Naismith seems to be quite confident they can both get in the squad and, given he'll know Clarke pretty well, I'd be surprised if that topic hasn't been discussed. It's also no secret that Gordon is desperate to go to Germany, but he was happy enough with the current arrangement to sign a new contract.

It looks like Clark will continue as number one for now but I'm certain Gordon will continue to get game time one way or another. As long as he's fit, has played a few games and still looks up to it, I don't see Clarke having any issues taking him as the third keeper over Kelly.

If Gordon fully supplants Clark at Hearts and the latter is benched for the rest of the season, that's another story. His spot on the plane is more vulnerable than Gordon's IMO.

Meh, Clark's got a season of games behind him and is clearly ahead of Kelly given he started both games in the last window. Since then Kelly's done the very opposite of Shankland in terms of club form.

I dont disagree that if neither was starting games Clark's spot is more vulnerable than Gordon's but Clark HAS been starting games. I dont think we're far away at all from the point where Clark could not play the rest of the season and still get picked. Certainly while Kelly's making mistakes and McCrorie's not playibg either. Thats very different to taking a keeper who potentially has played 3 games in 18 months to the Euros. 

As said though, the fact neither Kelly or McCrorie is pressuring the place makes it more likely. 

[HoBNob]

On 15/02/2024 at 14:23, Skyline Drifter said:

Indeed. Depends what you mean by "nailed on". I don't disagree (obviously) that things can change over the next three months but I think he'd be 'nailed on' if the squad was being picked tomorrow.

I don't think either Dykes or Adams place is in any real threat barring injury but for a left field thought it worth noting Dykes isn't even getting a start from QPR at the moment either and was playing an advance midfield role for the 3 or 4 games before he lost his place, He hasn't played as a striker since about Xmas. Not a major concern right now but hopefully he's not going to sit on a bench for the next three months. Adams is at least back playing for an in form Southampton side (this week's gubbing by Bristol notwithstanding) and contributing the odd goal.

I certainly think there's a discussion to be had with regards to Dykes tbf. As you've mentioned he's not getting a game for what is a dreadful QPR side, and hasn't scored a whole lot this season. 

Since he scored that double against Ukraine he's featured in 12? Scotland games and scored once, I know his game isn't all about goals, but I'm also not entirely convinced we look that much better a side with him in it. 

I fully expect him to be there, but truthfully I wouldn't be overjoyed at him starting. 

[DC92]

8 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Meh, Clark's got a season of games behind him and is clearly ahead of Kelly given he started both games in the last window. Since then Kelly's done the very opposite of Shankland in terms of club form.

I dont disagree that if neither was starting games Clark's spot is more vulnerable than Gordon's but Clark HAS been starting games. I dont think we're far away at all from the point where Clark could not play the rest of the season and still get picked. Certainly while Kelly's making mistakes and McCrorie's not playibg either. Thats very different to taking a keeper who potentially has played 3 games in 18 months to the Euros. 

Gordon has more than enough credit in the bank to take him as 3rd pick as long as he gets some minutes and still looks up to it for Hearts. Naismith is very much aware of the Euro situation, so barring injury, I'd be astonished if he only plays one more game before the end of the season. Even if we lose to Morton, you can bet Clark will be "rested" for a few league games, especially if 3rd is wrapped up before the end (which doesn't look unlikely).

Clark has none of that credit in the bank. If Gordon takes the number one spot, it'll likely be because Clark has made a couple of mistakes (which also isn't too unlikely). In that circumstance, Gunn and Gordon are nailed on and you're choosing between two dodgy keepers for 3rd spot, at least one of whom isn't playing. It would be much harder to justify taking Clark in that instance, regardless of how many minutes he's played up to this point.

As things stand I think both will go, but I can see more scenarios where Clark doesn't make it than I do with Gordon.

[craigkillie]

Clark actually playing against Georgia and Norway (and conceding 5 goals) probably actually slightly lowered his chances of going. I think he'd be close to a nailed on certainty if he hadn't played those games, but the performances surely have to put at least some doubt in Clarke's mind.

[2426255]

8 hours ago, HoBNob said:

I certainly think there's a discussion to be had with regards to Dykes tbf. As you've mentioned he's not getting a game for what is a dreadful QPR side, and hasn't scored a whole lot this season. Since he scored that double against Ukraine he's featured in 12? Scotland games and scored once, I know his game isn't all about goals, but I'm also not entirely convinced we look that much better a side with him in it. 

Fans can have a discussion. It won't make a difference to Euro-2024. Lyndon Dykes is past having to prove himself at club level in Steve Clarke's eyes to justify selection. As long as he performs for Scotland, he'll remain a key member and be on the plane.

Steve Clarke has addressed questions around "goal-scoring form" previously.

Spoiler

Quote

A lot of the strikers that I play: Lyndon Dykes, Che Adams - whoever it is upfront, whichever one it is: always seem to get a little bit of stick because they don't get enough goals.

The way we play, the way the team is structured is for that striker to help the midfield boys to score goals. As long as Scott's chipping in, John McGinn chips in with goals, Callum McGregor has a couple for us. As long as those boys are scoring from midfield we don't really care about who gets the goals as long as we get them.

Steve Clarke

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/12017/13035632/scotland-steve-clarke-discusses-euro-2024-qualification-scott-mctominay-squad-selection-dilemas-for-germany

Do fans believe we can maintain the goal-scoring return from midfield  while increasing the output from our strikers? Creating more chances for Dykes and Adams will result in less chances for McGinn and McTominay. Dykes isn't wasteful with chances, he simply doesn't get many chances to score.

When Dykes plays we are going to see a less aesthetic, more direct game. If we are looking to play more football then Adams tends to start. Craig Gordon talked about this on Viaplay ahead of Cyprus v Scotland. 

Spoiler

Given the level of competition at the Euro's we will need that sort of option. I can't think of anyone that would do that job better than him. He's a great team member with a great attitude. For me, any discussion will always return us to this point for the foreseeable future.

[2426255]

I quickly put together an xG table together for the Euro 2024 qualification campaign, I understand some people aren't interested in that kind of thing. The data is based on FOTMOB who I think get their data from Opta.

That said, It shows to me that McGinn and McTominay were getting the best of the chances we created - we know that anyway from watching the games. I accept xG statistics aren't perfect, but I just don't have the time at the moment to take a more thorough look although I've been meaning to do it for a while and still plan to do.

The point is that it shows that McGinn & McTominay were having more opportunity to score than our strikers by a noticeable margin. Dykes, McGinn and Adams were matching with expected and McTominay was outperforming.

Edited February 17 by 2426255

[Distant Doonhamer]

On 15/02/2024 at 14:23, Skyline Drifter said:

I don't think either Dykes or Adams place is in any real threat barring injury but for a left field thought it worth noting Dykes isn't even getting a start from QPR at the moment either and was playing an advance midfield role for the 3 or 4 games before he lost his place, He hasn't played as a striker since about Xmas. Not a major concern right now but hopefully he's not going to sit on a bench for the next three months. 

 

13 hours ago, HoBNob said:

I certainly think there's a discussion to be had with regards to Dykes tbf. As you've mentioned he's not getting a game for what is a dreadful QPR side, and hasn't scored a whole lot this season. 

Since he scored that double against Ukraine he's featured in 12? Scotland games and scored once, I know his game isn't all about goals, but I'm also not entirely convinced we look that much better a side with him in it. 

I fully expect him to be there, but truthfully I wouldn't be overjoyed at him starting. 

Dykes starting for QPR today. Playing up front according to BBC (I know).

Edited February 17 by Distant Doonhamer

[Alan Twelve]

Kenny McLean apparently alongside Hanley in a Norwich back-four this afternoon. This would have seemed a mad question to me a year ago, but with Tierney's game time needing managing, has McLean emerged as a like-for-like replacement midway through the second half of a Scotland game?

[Hendricks]

Jacob Brown over Lawrence Shankland 

 

[Virtual Insanity]

I don't think there is a serious question of Dykes not going, he could not kick a ball between now and June and I'd still expect Clarke to take him. I do think there's a discussion to be had about Shankland's place in the pecking order if he keeps this form up. His link up play is excellent (much better than Dykes) and his mobility is massively underrated. He's slow, but he's fit and covers a lot of ground. Our style of play doesn't overly rely on pace from anyone outside our wing backs. U

[Tartan Dave]

Mctominay 7 goals from 1.77 xg is superhuman stuff. With that freekick v Spain would be even higher 

[2426255]

20 hours ago, Alan Twelve said:

Kenny McLean apparently alongside Hanley in a Norwich back-four this afternoon. This would have seemed a mad question to me a year ago, but with Tierney's game time needing managing, has McLean emerged as a like-for-like replacement midway through the second half of a Scotland game?

In the right game and situation, I could see this. As an outside centre-back in a back-3, Kenny McLean could help us build play and pass through a press. He's unlikely to be sprinting down the wing, so probably not a like for like replacement for KT.

I liked Scott McTominay at right centre-back, but it had it's cons - so that's maybe a warning about playing McLean in a similar role on the left hand side - it would be risk/reward. I can imagine it now if we concede a goal down his side: "Why is Clarke playing a midfielder in defence?", "Clarke's overthinking it" or "Play players in their natural positions - round pegs in round holes" and so on.  

14 hours ago, Tartan Dave said:

Mctominay 7 goals from 1.77 xg is superhuman stuff. With that freekick v Spain would be even higher 

I think the xG on that free-kick would have been about 0.01, which is what made it such a remarkable goal.

His goal-scoring was superhuman as you say, to the point where it might be unrealistic to think it'll continue for Scotland. On the other hand, he's still doing it at Man United - so who knows?

Edited February 18 by 2426255

[Scotty Tunbridge]

Given McLean has played at CB for Norwich in a real lot of games recently I would be shocked if we don’t see Clarke try him in Tierney’s position for at least part of a game(s) in the March friendlies.

Edited February 18 by Scotty Tunbridge

[JS_FFC]

On 18/02/2024 at 12:03, Scotty Tunbridge said:

Given McLean has played at CB for Norwich in a real lot of games recently I would be shocked if we don’t see Clarke try him in Tierney’s position for at least part of a game(s) in the March friendlies.

When you play with a back three you really need at least one of them (preferably two) to be good at progressing the ball forward because you can’t afford to have the midfielders dropping as deep to receive possession as you would in a back four system. Jack Hendry is okay at this, but he’s the only defender we’ve got who even comes close to Tierney’s ability of progressing from the CB slot.

 

Even when we have used Hendry for this purpose before, we’ve struggled when it was Hendry and two more traditional CBs.

 

I think this is probably where the idea of using McTominay at RCB came from. Partly that and partly as a way of shoehorning McTominay into the team when McGregor and either Jack (pre-2021) or Gilmour (post-2021) were taking up the traditional CM slots.

 

I think I’d be very open to giving McLean a try as a CB in a back three especially if Tierney isn’t available. Having him as extra cover in the squad could also allow us to leave another CB at home (Not looking great for Souttar, Cooper and McKenna imo) and then allow for a wildcard pick further forward. 

[Alan Twelve]

2 hours ago, JS_FFC said:

(Not looking great for Souttar, Cooper and McKenna imo)

McKenna's place is safe if he's fit. He played the full game against Man City in the Chumps League last week, and he played the full 90 in Copenhagen's game at the weekend (a 3-0 win), so it looks like they consider him a first pick at CB.