welshbairn Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 23 minutes ago, Lurkst said: For those who are booked to go to Berlin, D3 would be the team to be as they are the only one to have two group games there. I'd prefer D2, Hamburg and Leipzig are easy day trips, Dusseldorf is a bit of a trek. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2426255 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 (edited) 10 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said: There's a decent chance that one win would get us through. It's good and probably healthy to be optimistic. Well done you. 18 hours ago, Virtual Insanity said: We're better than everyone in pot 4 right now bar Italy. We're better than most teams in pot 2. In almost all draw permutations this Scotland team should be making R16. I don't agree with that. I'm not going to put a case forward as I don't want to argue over it. I think we're coin flips against Switzerland and Serbia. Romania and Albania are the only pot-2 teams I'd be okay to accept we're better than and that's without knowing a thing about them, the rest mostly around coin flip territory. So other things being equal (average draw, average refereeing, opponents performing averagely etc) I'd say we're going to have a fight to make it through and qualifying from the group would be a good achievement on it's own. That's my expectation ahead of the draw. Is that too pessimistic? Edited November 23, 2023 by 2426255 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuttonDressedAsLahm Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, 2426255 said: It's good and probably healthy to be optimistic. Well done you. I don't agree with that. I'm not going to put a case forward as I don't want to argue over it. I think we're coin flips against Switzerland and Serbia. Romania and Albania are the only pot-2 teams I'd be okay to accept we're better than and that's without knowing a thing about them, the rest mostly around coin flip territory. So other things being equal (average draw, average refereeing, opponents performing averagely etc) I'd say we're going to have a fight to make it through and qualifying from the group would be a good achievement on it's own. That's my expectation ahead of the draw. Is that too pessimistic? I think that's fair. I'd say that the 24 sides can probably be split something like this: - Tier 1/1.5: France; England; Portugal - Tier 2/2.5: Spain; Italy; Germany; Belgium; Netherlands; Croatia; Hungary; Switzerland; Denmark - Tier 3/3.5: Austria; Czechia; Scotland; Serbia; Albania; Turkey; Slovenia; Slovakia; Romania (Wales/Ukraine/Finland/Poland et) - Tier 4/4.5: Georgia/Iceland/Luxembourg etc A few teams will underperform (Austria almost had a near-perfect qualification record for 2016 then went out scoring once), whilst others will do something special. Some of that is down to luck, but I'd want to avoid Hungary and Austria for those reasons. Difficult to know how good Serbia, Turkey, Czechia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Switzerland, Denmark and Romania are right now. They all made heavy weather of qualifying, with some even struggling with really quite average groups. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Play off draw about to happen. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nate Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, 2426255 said: It's good and probably healthy to be optimistic. Well done you. I don't agree with that. I'm not going to put a case forward as I don't want to argue over it. I think we're coin flips against Switzerland and Serbia. Romania and Albania are the only pot-2 teams I'd be okay to accept we're better than and that's without knowing a thing about them, the rest mostly around coin flip territory. So other things being equal (average draw, average refereeing, opponents performing averagely etc) I'd say we're going to have a fight to make it through and qualifying from the group would be a good achievement on it's own. That's my expectation ahead of the draw. Is that too pessimistic? Not pessimistic at all. it’s feet on the ground common sense, maybe the result of watching the last Euros when we delivered one of our worst ever tournament showings despite the benefit of two home matches. You might even say it’s a coin toss against every one of the 9 known teams in pots 2 & 4.. How good do people think we actually are? There are folk on here and elsewhere suggesting Italy is a good fit for us as a pot 4 oppo. That’s mental. Italy had the pre-tournament faves in their group as well as a toughie in Ukraine. Six of their club sides are in positions 1 or 2 in their respective groups re CL,NL etc ( yes some players are foreigners, but still) Historically, they are a very durable tournament side. It suits their mentality, it seems. They might not even have been the best team at the last Euros but they still won the thing. Some of this bring-on-Italy Wha’s Like Us shite reminds me of 1978. With our very best XI on the pitch and a wee bit of luck of the draw we can progress. But if 3 or 4 of those squad jobbers get a game in a group containing say France, Denmark and Italy, we’ve had it. Notpessimistic at all, 2426255 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuttonDressedAsLahm Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 I'd quite fancy a playoff winner in Pot 4, if only that it A) avoids Italy, and B) we can watch the playoffs in March with some interest. Guess there's a 50/50 chance. I wouldn't mind putting Georgia back in their place with a fully fit and available side. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nate Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Play off draw about to happen. We’re prob wanting Ukraine put in same pathway as Poland/Wales if that’s at all possible. It would eliminate 2 of the stronger play off teams 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunfermline Don Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Anyone but England please, there is too much additional baggage attached to this game that would overshadow everything else. The media and social media build up would be excruciating. The recent game at Hampden has slightly put me off this fixture and it also tends to bring out some of the worst elements in our support. If we have to play them at all in the tournament, then let it be in the final! On second thoughts, Perhaps even funnier would be to play them in the 3rd place playoff! It would mean we had overachieved, while they (in their own minds) will have underachieved! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuttonDressedAsLahm Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Of course Wales get the home draw for the final. Georgia/Luxembourg, and Ukraine/Bosnia also get the home draw for the final. Georgia v Greece could be some game. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boo Khaki Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Wales host Finland, and will host the final once they scrape through that. UEFA probably give them a best of three stone, paper, scissors to stay in if they happen to lose. You can tell if they get to the finals they'll somehow land a group with Albion Rovers, Montrose's women's side, and The Galapagos Islands. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Jammy fucks. At least Israel and boring Greece haven't got home draws. Though I assume Israel won't be playing at home any time soon anyway. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottMc77 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 30 minutes ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said: Of course Wales get the home draw for the final. Georgia/Luxembourg, and Ukraine/Bosnia also get the home draw for the final. Georgia v Greece could be some game. Jammy for Wales, they have a great chance to make it now. I'm hoping Luxembourg can turn Georgia over, but seems unlikely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brother Blades Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Maybe been asked & answered but does Erling Haaland not get a play off path of his own? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2426255 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 I think if you a add the better play-off teams to pot-4 based on the draw then it begins to look a bit more challenging. Serbia, Switzerland, Italy, Ukraine, Poland/Wales, Greece. I'd still probably prefer to be drawn against a play-off team, but none of those teams would be straightforward wins. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2426255 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 (edited) Am I correct in saying if Scotland had required to have gone through a play-off we'd playing Wales? (Poland, Wales, Scotland, Estonia); (Israel, Bosnia, Finland, Ukraine). Edited November 23, 2023 by 2426255 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaggy McJagface Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Every game against the pot 2 or 4 teams (bar Italy or if any of the weaker playoff sides get through) is essentially a toss up. We’d be slight favourites against a couple and slight underdogs against some others. It isn’t a given, but in a tournament where 4 points will almost certainly see us get through the group it would be a disappointment to bow out in the first round in almost all draw scenarios. We aren’t likely to get a better chance to do so than next summer. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaggy McJagface Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, 2426255 said: Am I correct in saying if Scotland had required to have gone through a play-off we'd playing Wales? No, we would have been in the league B playoffs and (I think) be playing “away” against Israel. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie Of The Month Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, Jaggy McJagface said: No, we would have been in the league B playoffs and (I think) be playing “away” against Israel. We'd have been away to Bosnia as seeding would've been 1. Israel, 2. Bosnia, 3. Scotland, 4. Whoever was drawn into the path. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2426255 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Just need someone to say we'd be drawn against Ukraine to complete the set. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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