CALDERON Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Given our real inability to take advantage of Utd slip ups, I'm still a bit doubtful over our credentials to get ourselves over the line. If we were to beat Utd then win the game in hand then I'd say we are a decent bet, but in reality I think it's going to be too close to call. The speed at which we went from absolutely cruising to being 3-2 down to that god awful Arbroath side really does make it difficult to be too buoyant yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ro Sham Bo Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 13 hours ago, CALDERON said: Given our real inability to take advantage of Utd slip ups, I'm still a bit doubtful over our credentials to get ourselves over the line. If we were to beat Utd then win the game in hand then I'd say we are a decent bet, but in reality I think it's going to be too close to call. The speed at which we went from absolutely cruising to being 3-2 down to that god awful Arbroath side really does make it difficult to be too buoyant yet. Especially given the game in hand is against Airdrie... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Fuctifano Posted March 25 Popular Post Share Posted March 25 (edited) OK, usual prelude, ran 1000 simulations from here to end of season with team ratings based on Elo, so in the sims the teams at the top of the league are more likely to beat the teams at the bottom rather than just same chance of win / draw / loss. I don’t put too much stock in the individual results and outcomes of teams as Elo can’t account for injuries / morale / Colin Steven and is probably weighted too heavily towards season long rather than recent form- I try and balance this but it's hard-however it’s useful for what’s likely to be needed in terms of points. So for 1st, with the two teams falling over each other on the way to the line it reckons 69 points (nice) will more likely than not be enough (i.e. > 50% chance) to win, with the race almost 50/50. Raith’s game in hand being levelled out by DU’s point advantage and higher Elo rating as well as DU being favourites for the game on Saturday (says the spreadsheet, not me). 73 points would give a 95% chance of lifting the trophy. For the promotion playoffs, a low total of 51 points is the current > 50% chance of being in mark with 54 being more than 90% sure of getting in. A knock-on effect of this is that for safety the greater than 50% chance total is a very high 41 points with 43 being the more than 90% sure of safety total. In the 1000 sims teams finished 9th with 43 points on 44 occasions, finished 9th with 44 points 10 times, with 45 points on 2 occasions and there would be much wailing and gnashing of teeth on the South side of Glasgow if this one-off possibility played out (I don’t keep the scores that lead to this point but would assume very unlikely) The lowest point total that stayed up was 37, on 3 occasions - ICT x 2 and Ayr the lucky teams. %s don't always add to 100 due to rounding but no-one needs them to multiple decimal places. Arbroath stayed up automatically 4 times out of 1000 from here, although they did finish 7th once. So you can post the Dumb and Dumber meme, lads edited for formatting and typos Edited March 25 by Fuctifano 32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagsfan57 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 14 hours ago, par-adise said: Partick got a total of 2 points from their last round of games vs those teams. So far this quarter we are replicating the results from the 2nd round of matches. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carmel Wafer Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Sorry if I've missed this, have the fixture dates been published anywhere? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllanJM Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 The main thing to take from all of these posts is that this league is absolutely mental. It's looking likely that this season could be the same as last year when only 1 team had nothing to play for in the last game. Last season it was us when we couldn't get into either playoff. This season it looks likely it will be Arbroath as they'll likely be relegated with games to spare barring a major turnaround. Of course, I hope I'm wrong and we go into the last game with nothing to play for.......having already won the title but I seriously doubt that'll be the case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aufc Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Although we are currently 4th, have two games in hand over some and feel we are a match for anyone in the league, I don’t think we will finish 4th. However, that would be ok with the season we have had. That being said, it would be magic just to be involved in the play offs. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grumpy Soo-sider Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 58 minutes ago, Carmel Wafer said: Sorry if I've missed this, have the fixture dates been published anywhere? https://spfl.co.uk/league/championship/fixtures 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagsfan57 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, Grumpy Soo-sider said: https://spfl.co.uk/league/championship/fixtures Maybe meaning the playoff dates ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 The Premiership playoff final is 23rd & 26th May (unless Aberdeen are in both that and Scottish cup final- I don't know what would then get moved) So assuming BBC still televise the playoffs up to the final, 3rd vs 4th will likely be 7th & 10th May, and winner of that vs 2nd will be 14th & 17th May with Premiership bottom 6 team's last game on 18th May. Unlike last year where there was a later finish because of the World Cup, the teams finishing 3rd / 4th are playing Tue-Fri for 2 weeks. I can't see anywhere on the SPFL site about the relegation playoffs 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 5 hours ago, Fuctifano said: OK, usual prelude, ran 1000 simulations from here to end of season with team ratings based on Elo, so in the sims the teams at the top of the league are more likely to beat the teams at the bottom rather than just same chance of win / draw / loss. The problem here is that a random number generator has absolutely nothing on Scott Brown's teamsheet pencil. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carmel Wafer Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Cheers guys 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RossBFaeDundee Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Decided to have a look back at my prediction table from before the season started, and a lot of it is still on. Only things that look off the table is Airdrie being roped into the relegation play-offs (though it's only 7 points' difference right now) and Partick splitting the top two. On 01/07/2023 at 03:41, RossBFaeDundee said: 1st. Dundee United 2nd. Partick Thistle 3rd. Raith Rovers 4th. Dunfermline Athletic 5th. Greenock Morton 6th. Ayr United 7th. Inverness Caley Thistle 8th. Queen’s Park 9th. Airdrieonians 10th. Arbroath This line in particular has rang true at least. I knew in my gut Airdrie would be well in there and was surprised how many had them 10th, but still couldn't see them too much higher obviously. On 01/07/2023 at 03:41, RossBFaeDundee said: 5th to 8th is a nightmare to guess, each of them I'm thinking "aye, they could be 5th-6th" and then realising I've already put another there. Had planned to try and put Airdrie higher but with the glut in the middle there's no room (and it'll be even more muddled if Ayr get Mckay) Oh aye, forgot Billy McKay was apparently an Ayr target last summer! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FitbaSupporter Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 8 hours ago, Fuctifano said: OK, usual prelude, ran 1000 simulations from here to end of season with team ratings based on Elo, so in the sims the teams at the top of the league are more likely to beat the teams at the bottom rather than just same chance of win / draw / loss. I don’t put too much stock in the individual results and outcomes of teams as Elo can’t account for injuries / morale / Colin Steven and is probably weighted too heavily towards season long rather than recent form- I try and balance this but it's hard-however it’s useful for what’s likely to be needed in terms of points. So for 1st, with the two teams falling over each other on the way to the line it reckons 69 points (nice) will more likely than not be enough (i.e. > 50% chance) to win, with the race almost 50/50. Raith’s game in hand being levelled out by DU’s point advantage and higher Elo rating as well as DU being favourites for the game on Saturday (says the spreadsheet, not me). 73 points would give a 95% chance of lifting the trophy. For the promotion playoffs, a low total of 51 points is the current > 50% chance of being in mark with 54 being more than 90% sure of getting in. A knock-on effect of this is that for safety the greater than 50% chance total is a very high 41 points with 43 being the more than 90% sure of safety total. In the 1000 sims teams finished 9th with 43 points on 44 occasions, finished 9th with 44 points 10 times, with 45 points on 2 occasions and there would be much wailing and gnashing of teeth on the South side of Glasgow if this one-off possibility played out (I don’t keep the scores that lead to this point but would assume very unlikely) The lowest point total that stayed up was 37, on 3 occasions - ICT x 2 and Ayr the lucky teams. %s don't always add to 100 due to rounding but no-one needs them to multiple decimal places. Arbroath stayed up automatically 4 times out of 1000 from here, although they did finish 7th once. So you can post the Dumb and Dumber meme, lads edited for formatting and typos Pleasantly surprised that Rovers chance is so high, although that’s more down to my pessimism. Would be interested in how the percentage swings if either us or United win on Saturday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 8 hours ago, FitbaSupporter said: Pleasantly surprised that Rovers chance is so high, although that’s more down to my pessimism. Would be interested in how the percentage swings if either us or United win on Saturday. With the reality that a winner Saturday takes 6 of the 20 points they need (DU has an unnecessary asterisk on that because GD is how they win with 20 vice 21) to either win, or have their opponent lose. So one or the other will be well ahead on the race to the tile, only needing 14 while the loser still needs 20. In the case of a draw, both sides move to needing to earn, or see their opponents lose, 17 points. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 4 hours ago, TxRover said: With the reality that a winner Saturday takes 6 of the 20 points they need (DU has an unnecessary asterisk on that because GD is how they win with 20 vice 21) to either win, or have their opponent lose. So one or the other will be well ahead on the race to the tile, only needing 14 while the loser still needs 20. In the case of a draw, both sides move to needing to earn, or see their opponents lose, 17 points. You really are making something simple so f*****g complicated! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 14 hours ago, FitbaSupporter said: Pleasantly surprised that Rovers chance is so high, although that’s more down to my pessimism. Would be interested in how the percentage swings if either us or United win on Saturday. Dundee Utd win: 75/25 Utd Draw: 55/45 Raith Raith win: 81/19 Raith 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diegomarahenry Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 After Saturdays result, it removed Ayr from any possibility of a promotion playoff push. The January window has killed us, the players we brought in were far from upgrades and we now have a load of players missing. I still think we will avoid 9th or 10th place and currently the best we can hope for is being mathematically safe with 2-3 games to go. A disappointing start, middle and end to the season. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagsfan57 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 7 hours ago, TxRover said: With the reality that a winner Saturday takes 6 of the 20 points they need (DU has an unnecessary asterisk on that because GD is how they win with 20 vice 21) to either win, or have their opponent lose. So one or the other will be well ahead on the race to the tile, only needing 14 while the loser still needs 20. In the case of a draw, both sides move to needing to earn, or see their opponents lose, 17 points. If DU need 20 points they are screwed as they only have 6 games left. The obvious reality of Saturday’s game is that DU need to win to keep the destination of the title in their own hands. Any other result means that Raith Rovers have it to win/throw away. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 hours ago, hk blues said: You really are making something simple so f*****g complicated! Not only is it unnecessarily complicated, but it’s also wrong. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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