TxRover Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) So, with today's results we have a bit more clarity: DU are assured of at least a playoff spot. Raith are almost assured, with only Morton winning out with Raith losing out, and Morton closing the GD, being able to deny them. Patrick are in the catbird seat for third, but Airdrie's 2 in hand make that same seat a wee bit warm. Airdrie have the advantage, but it's not huge, and Morton and the Pars can both make it tough for them. Morton and the Pars look happily in the mix for 5th-8th with Queen's and Ayr, but both Queen's and Ayr have a wary eye behind them on ICT. ICT are the favorite, right now, for 9th. If they secure 12 points, their GD makes them safe from Arbroath. Arbroath are, for all intents and purposes, headed for 10th. It would take a monumental turnaround and an absolute routing of ICT in the last six to even catch them. Magic numbers: Arbroath to lock 10th - 12 to 13 pts...if they drop or ICT gain a total of 12 points, its over barring a 34 goal change. But 13 points and it's absolutely, 100%, done. Winning the league - 20 to 21 pts for DU...if they get, or Raith drop, 20 total points DU's GD will win it, 21 total points locks it regardless. OR 20 pts for Raith...if they get, or DU drop 20 total points, Raith win it. Edited March 23 by TxRover 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevoraith Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 We need yon boy with the coloured Excel sheet to show us likely finish positions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oneteaminglasgow Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 hours ago, stevoraith said: We need yon boy with the coloured Excel sheet to show us likely finish positions. @Fuctifano How busy you likely to be in work this week? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 11 hours ago, TxRover said: Patrick are in the catbird seat for third Untitleddesign1.mp4.be4f88035923fbc0b56b3b0b2e6e975d.mp4 19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcjameos Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Not wanting to step on anyone's toes but here's something I've been maintaining for myself. Its based on current points plus 'points per game under current manager' for remaining fixtures. Table sorted using current Goal Difference then current Goals For where points are equal. Lots of ifs buts and maybes but shows just how tight it could be 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 59 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said: @Fuctifano How busy you likely to be in work this week? It's on my work laptop but away for the weekend so will post tomorrow morning. From what I recall 41 points was the point at which you were more likely than not to achieve safety and 51 for 4th but might have changed after this weekend. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grumpy Soo-sider Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 37 minutes ago, mcjameos said: Not wanting to step on anyone's toes but here's something I've been maintaining for myself. Its based on current points plus 'points per game under current manager' for remaining fixtures. Table sorted using current Goal Difference then current Goals For where points are equal. Lots of ifs buts and maybes but shows just how tight it could be Just for debate, I've had a look at current positions and then the fixtures and come up with a not dissimilar end result. I still see Dundee United winning it but pushed hard by Raith the two fighting another draw next week to keep our interest going. Raith could drop points to Partick at home and Morton away. Airdrie are doing well just now and could continue this trend and finish in the final playoff spot although Dunfermline, Morton and QP will push them all the way. However, I think that Dunfermline and Queen's Park finish behind Airdrie on equal points with QP edging it on goal difference (or goals for). Morton just behind to keep things interesting but clearly these three should be safe. The bottom three are the same as just now. Inverness with a dreadful home record need to (and could) get their act together otherwise Ayr will claim the last safe spot. Arbroath, I think, are doomed and I can't see where any points might come for them - but I'm sure they'll not stop fighting. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richey Edwards Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1. It 2. Is 3. Not 4. Possible 5. To 6. Predict 7. The 8. League 9. Ayr United 10. Arbroath 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 10 or 11 points from Dunfermline's remaining games is definitely a possibility. Which should see us okay. Even wins against Arbroath and ICT and a draw should be fine. Patrick you would imagine will be resting players in their final 2 games but Raith end the season against Arbroath who will almost certainly be relegated by then so everything is a little mg way from certain other than Partick finishing 3rd and Arbroath being bottom. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcjameos Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 hour ago, Grumpy Soo-sider said: Just for debate, I've had a look at current positions and then the fixtures and come up with a not dissimilar end result. I still see Dundee United winning it but pushed hard by Raith the two fighting another draw next week to keep our interest going. Raith could drop points to Partick at home and Morton away. Airdrie are doing well just now and could continue this trend and finish in the final playoff spot although Dunfermline, Morton and QP will push them all the way. However, I think that Dunfermline and Queen's Park finish behind Airdrie on equal points with QP edging it on goal difference (or goals for). Morton just behind to keep things interesting but clearly these three should be safe. The bottom three are the same as just now. Inverness with a dreadful home record need to (and could) get their act together otherwise Ayr will claim the last safe spot. Arbroath, I think, are doomed and I can't see where any points might come for them - but I'm sure they'll not stop fighting. Clearly much more considered than mine. It's ridiculous that Dundee Utd are making such hard work of the title but you are probably right that they will pull through eventually. That said, given QP can't, would be good to see Raith win it simply because they weren't expected to. Airdrie doing well and, on balance, I think they probably deserve the final play-off place. Would be delighted if Queen's made 5th. Think the Morton game will be an important determinant of that but our record against them doesn't inspire confidence ........ but I suppose records are there to be broken 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Starko Rover Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Us v Utd will be clearer come Saturday with home advantage vs Jim Goodwin’s bottle crashing, obviously a draw keeps things going to the wire. Utd are still favourites to win the league. Partick v Airdrie for 3rd / 4th spot, this might stop either club resting players before the playoff as it could go to the final weekend for position. Pars / Morton / QPFC scraping for position 5-8 but a few points will see them safely away from 9th. Ayr should be able to pick up enough points to stay in 5-8 fight with a game in hand to keep ICT in 9th unless they completely collapse ICT will surely be doing really well to pick up 7-9 more points but anything less will be too little. Arbroath are already gone, can’t see anyway of coming back despite their valiant win against us at Gayfield. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 (edited) @mcjameos’s table matches my “season long form position” one… @Grumpy Soo-sider’s table is based upon predictions. They both have use, but the form one ignores subtle team availability and mentality issues, while the prediction one is an absolute crap-shoot given our Championship prediction thread has a leader with 93 points over 28 weeks. That’s roughly 1.3 correct scores guessed per week of predictions. I assume that Grumpy’s prediction is based upon a DU win on Saturday, in which case the numbers could just as easily have Raith at 74 and DU at 72 if it swings the other way. Based upon “form”, we can expect DU to get 12 more points…4-0-2 or 3-3-0…and expect Raith to get 14 more points…4-2-1. The borderline insane thing about those prediction is it allows Raith to lose to DU and still win the league, if it pans out. We can be sure that: The long term average for tenth (25) will possibly be broken (requires an Arbroath win or three draws, at least) The long term average for ninth (35) is quite likely to be broken (requires at least a win and a draw, or four draws, by ICT and a draw by Ayr) The long term eighth average (39) is almost certain to be broken. Long term seventh through fifth (42, 46 and 51) are still in play. Long term fourth and third are likely to not be met (56 and 59). Long term second will probably be exceeded (64). Long term first (74) will quite possibly not be reached, after a torrid start that had two teams on an 80+ pace. Edit to add: There are 33 games left this season…that’s 99 points up for grabs. Add that to the current 403 points, and we’re at 502 maximum points, which is one less than the highest final total (two COVID years corrected to full year equivalent) in 98-99. Average total is right at 492, which suggests we should see 10 draws out of the 33 games left. Edited March 24 by TxRover 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grumpy Soo-sider Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 I agree that predictions are pie in the sky stuff especially this season as we have had some completely bonkers results. It's useful only in that it can get a discussion going as we need to start somewhere - I was wanting to set a different point of view from @mcjameos. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagsfan57 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 5 hours ago, Grumpy Soo-sider said: Just for debate, I've had a look at current positions and then the fixtures and come up with a not dissimilar end result. I still see Dundee United winning it but pushed hard by Raith the two fighting another draw next week to keep our interest going. Raith could drop points to Partick at home and Morton away. Airdrie are doing well just now and could continue this trend and finish in the final playoff spot although Dunfermline, Morton and QP will push them all the way. However, I think that Dunfermline and Queen's Park finish behind Airdrie on equal points with QP edging it on goal difference (or goals for). Morton just behind to keep things interesting but clearly these three should be safe. The bottom three are the same as just now. Inverness with a dreadful home record need to (and could) get their act together otherwise Ayr will claim the last safe spot. Arbroath, I think, are doomed and I can't see where any points might come for them - but I'm sure they'll not stop fighting. I will be delighted if we get 13 points from our remaining 6 games. If it happens and my arithmetic is right, that would mean us taking 20 points in the final quarter. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grumpy Soo-sider Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 minutes ago, jagsfan57 said: I will be delighted if we get 13 points from our remaining 6 games. If it happens and my arithmetic is right, that would mean us taking 20 points in the final quarter. It's do-able. Inverness, Dunfermline, Airdrie, Ayr should be points for you and a draw at Raith is possible. But with the way your results have been going recently I agree it is a bit of a task. Good luck. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 The bookies make United odds on favourites to win the league. Lots of sites giving over 2/1 on Raith. Might win might not but its tremendous value. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 51 minutes ago, Grumpy Soo-sider said: I agree that predictions are pie in the sky stuff especially this season as we have had some completely bonkers results. It's useful only in that it can get a discussion going as we need to start somewhere - I was wanting to set a different point of view from @mcjameos. Careful, he’s our leading predictor…you might not like the results… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fletchers Saucy Manbun Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Raith United Partick Morton Morton > Partick Morton > United Premier 11th > Morton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 We are down, ICT to come with us, they won’t scare any of the L1 playoff teams 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
par-adise Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 hours ago, Grumpy Soo-sider said: It's do-able. Inverness, Dunfermline, Airdrie, Ayr should be points for you and a draw at Raith is possible. But with the way your results have been going recently I agree it is a bit of a task. Good luck. Partick got a total of 2 points from their last round of games vs those teams. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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