TxRover Posted April 6 Author Share Posted April 6 That certainly didn't do a massive amount to clear things up, but the two Tuesday matches could certainly make things interesting...but, for now: DU maintain a 4 point lead while watching Tuesday with great interest. Raith keep pace, and are now assured top three...but Tuesdays match with Airdrie is huge, Partick stumble, can feel a bit of pressure now, but are assured 7th or better and pretty much a lock for the playoffs. Airdrie have the leg up, but face a Raith side that almost HAS to win Tuesday...a real ding-dong match in the offing, especially as Airdire have had Raith's number this season. Still only assured 9th or better. The Pars, Morton and Ayr all trod water, milling about the middle, chances for promotion playoffs slipping and the relegation playoffs on their minds. With Morton visiting Ayr on Tuesday, expect a desperate match. Queen's Park can feel ICT breathing down their necks, but are gratified to see two of the three above them not gain ground despite their own loss. On the plus side, they are safe from the automatic trapdoor now. ICT improved their odds of avoiding ninth, and are now effectively safe from tenth because... ...Arbroath now would need 12 of 12 points, ICT to lose every match, AND to close a 37 GD to avoid 10th. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aufc Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 I suspect raith will finally bury the hoodoo against us in Tuesday. Huge game for us against the pars next week. Hopefully home advantage sees us take three points. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diamonds are Forever Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Aufc said: I suspect raith will finally bury the hoodoo against us in Tuesday. Huge game for us against the pars next week. Hopefully home advantage sees us take three points. Yeah looking at it if we beat Dunfermline we'd be pretty much assured of finishing ahead of Dunfermline I think. We'd be 6 points ahead and at least 9 goals ahead on GD, with 3 left to play. Dunfermline would have to get 2 wins and a draw and we'd need to lose the other 3. Morton still have a shot and have the relative gimme of Arbroath, but their other 4 matches all look very tough. If we beat Dunfermline and get another win or even a draw somewhere I'd be confident Morton won't catch us. Given all that I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a few changes on Tuesday night, even if we win on Tuesday if that comes at the expense of more fatigue to the point where we lose to Dunfermline then we're worse off. I still think we'll be very competitive with Raith but would expect the likes of McGregor, Donnell, Gal and O'Connor to start. Edited April 6 by Diamonds are Forever 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aufc Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 4 minutes ago, Diamonds are Forever said: Yeah looking at it if we beat Dunfermline we'd be pretty much assured of finishing ahead of Dunfermline I think. We'd be 6 points ahead and at least 9 goals ahead on GD, with 3 left to play. Dunfermline would have to get 2 wins and a draw and we'd need to lose the other 3. Morton still have a shot and have the relative gimme of Arbroath, but their other 4 matches all look very tough. If we beat Dunfermline and get another win or even a draw somewhere I'd be confident Morton won't catch us. Given all that I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a few changes on Tuesday night, even if we win on Tuesday if that comes at the expense of more fatigue to the point where we lose to Dunfermline then we're worse off. I still think we'll be very competitive with Raith but would expect the likes of McGregor, Donnell, Gal and O'Connor to start. Suspect he will do the same as he did at Arbroath and give some players some minutes. Lyall actually looked pretty good against them. Raith will be right up for it. Suppose we would be as well tI aim for third position since it’s not a huge distance ahead. So 9 points from the next three please 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Connolly Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 Can't believe I'm going to have to support Airdrie not only twice in the same season, but twice in three weeks 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chapelhall chap Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 I'm getting carried away so let's go for it on Tuesday and pressurise Thistle whilst ( Sorry TX) weakening Ian Murray's pursuit of the title. Nurse please. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parscelona Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 Yeh if we're being realistic, we need Raith not to shit the bed midweek and we need to win on Saturday to have a serious chance of finishing 4th. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsforlife Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 3 hours ago, TxRover said: ...Arbroath now would need 12 of 12 points, ICT to lose every match, AND to close a 37 GD to avoid 10th. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 (edited) After a bad week for Airdrie last week a very good one for them this week. Thought Ayr's safety % was a bit high but suppose ICT and QP still have to play each other, and if that game was played today then Ayr would be at least 2 points ahead of 9th with 5 games to play compared to the 9th placed team's 3. The numbers for safety are still 41 for > 50% chance and 43 for 90% chance. Highest total to finish 9th was 44 so Airdrie I would now say are totally safe. For promotion play off it remains 51 for >50% chance and 53 for >90% chance. Highest total to finish 5th was 55. Edited April 7 by Fuctifano 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clangers Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Can’t Airdrie still finish 9th if ICT & QP draw and then win there remaining games? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsforlife Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Clangers said: Can’t Airdrie still finish 9th if ICT & QP draw and then win there remaining games? It’s technically possible but it also involves Morton and Ayr picking up a decent amount of results not involving ICT or QP. If you put a bet on the combination of results needed for airdrie to finish 9th you’ll walk away significantly richer Edited April 7 by parsforlife 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted April 7 Author Share Posted April 7 1 hour ago, Fuctifano said: After a bad week for Airdrie last week a very good one for them this week. Thought Ayr's safety % was a bit high but suppose ICT and QP still have to play each other, and if that game was played today then Ayr would be at least 2 points ahead of 9th with 5 games to play compared to the 9th placed team's 3. The numbers for safety are still 41 for > 50% chance and 43 for 90% chance. Highest total to finish 9th was 44 so Airdrie I would now say are totally safe. For promotion play off it remains 51 for >50% chance and 53 for >90% chance. Highest total to finish 5th was 55. The hilarious thing about this is it’s now becoming quite possible that there could be as little as first and eighth, or even nothing, to play for on the last Friday night, depending on results. And that’s after the last day last year effectively had 9 of the 10 playing something! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 2 hours ago, Clangers said: Can’t Airdrie still finish 9th if ICT & QP draw and then win there remaining games? It's arithmetically possible but so is Arbroath finishing 9th. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgow Diamond Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Watch out for arbroath picking up a result or two now the pressure is more or less off. How many times do we see that , though they are shockingly bad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D'Jaffo Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 43 minutes ago, Glasgow Diamond said: Watch out for arbroath picking up a result or two now the pressure is more or less off. How many times do we see that , though they are shockingly bad Some will still be fighting for new contracts however with the rumours that no one likes McIntyre I think it’s more likely they just completely down tools. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
par-adise Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 On 06/04/2024 at 17:36, TxRover said: The Pars, Morton and Ayr all trod water, milling about the middle, chances for promotion playoffs slipping and the relegation playoffs on their minds. With Morton visiting Ayr on Tuesday, expect a desperate match. Wild take to suggest Dunfermline will be worried about 9th now. Are you really suggesting there's a chance of Morton, Ayr, QP and ICT all stringing a run together to go above us? We're playing 3 of them (2 at home), we just need to win one of those to be safe. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted April 7 Author Share Posted April 7 1 minute ago, par-adise said: Wild take to suggest Dunfermline will be worried about 9th now. Are you really suggesting there's a chance of Morton, Ayr, QP and ICT all stringing a run together to go above us? We're playing 3 of them (2 at home), we just need to win one of those to be safe. Agreed, but lets look at it this way...if you lose the Airdrie and Queen's Park over the next two weeks, it won't be so far fetched and the match against ICT will be pretty tense. Is it likely, IDK...Airdrie blow hot and cold, as do Queen's Park...and Ayr and yourself, to be honest. I don't have an easy characterization for ICT, but they're back in the mix again. Do I think the Pars are safe, yea...but it's fitba, and we're always brooding on dark thoughts and conspiracies... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 2 hours ago, Glasgow Diamond said: Watch out for arbroath picking up a result or two now the pressure is more or less off. How many times do we see that , though they are shockingly bad 1 hour ago, D'Jaffo said: Some will still be fighting for new contracts however with the rumours that no one likes McIntyre I think it’s more likely they just completely down tools. Don’t think anyone will be fighting for a new contract while McIntyre is still in charge, but if we sack him after the Ayr game next Saturday, then the home games against Queens and Morton, might be slightly more interesting, but my gut feeling is, he’s here until the end of the season, unfortunately 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cb_diamond Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 2 hours ago, TxRover said: Airdrie blow hot and cold, We're top of the last 15 game form table since xmas and joint top of the 6 and 12 (with DU in both cases). So not sure that argument bears scrutiny 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrunitedfw Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 1 hour ago, cb_diamond said: We're top of the last 15 game form table since xmas and joint top of the 6 and 12 (with DU in both cases). So not sure that argument bears scrutiny You’ve won 13 games and lost 12 that is literally the definition of blowing hot and cold. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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