General Election 2024

[Wee-Bey]

Brexit is done lads. It's over.

[renton]

So, it's outcome focused politics, unburdened by doctrine according to Starmer.

[Richey Edwards]

[Jedi2]

Labour with 3.5 million fewer votes than 2017 (on probably the most left-wing programme since 1945) and 500,000 fewer than 2019.

Shows that it was Reform wot won it, by pulling down the Tory vote.

Certainly something for Starmer to reflect upon..both that Corbyn actually won more votes (twice) and that an openly 'left' manifesto went down better across the country.

Also, in terms of winning a 2nd term, that ironically Reform would probably have to continue eating away at the Tories. 

[HibeeJibee]

4 hours ago, ScotiaNostra said:

How many votes did reform get overall in Scotland?

c170,000...

excluding Inverness Skye & Wester Rossshire:

[Todd_is_God]

33 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Imagine thinking that's a bad thing.

They aren't free, though, are they?

[Todd_is_God]

19 minutes ago, coprolite said:

Now you’ve done it. Spreadsheet here I come. Not saying you’re wrong, but I need to know fo sho

Please do come back with your findings. If I'm wrong I'm wrong.

[Dunning1874]

There'll never be a consensus on why this election went the way it did for the SNP, because so many who have supported them over the last decade (whether they did yesterday or not) will put it down to the thing they dislike and only that thing so they can use it to fight the next battle: see Labour 2019.

People who were devoted to Corbyn will tell you it was entirely down to Brexit while the Tories were campaigning on Get Brexit Done, the Brexit Party only stood in Labour held seats in Leave areas taking away their votes and none from the Tories, meaning Leave areas haemorrhaged away from Labour to the Tories. This was the consequence of the second referendum policy which was forced upon Corbyn by his party, the chief architect of this being their Brexit Minister Keir Starmer, who was using this as a means of deliberately ratfucking Corbyn because five years of Tory government was a price worth paying to be rid of him and installing himself as leader.

Never mind that Corbyn could have shown some political competence as the leader of a fucking party to not find himself in the position where he was forced to adopt a policy he clearly didn't want to which he didn't believe in and he thought would lose votes, as if this doesn't betray a total political naivety and inability to communicate effectively which is far from a desirable trait in a party leader or Prime Minister. Take Brexit and unscrupulous Labour parliamentarians & officials who were never behind him out of the equation and the support was definitely there for a Corbyn landslide.

Then you have the Labour members who despised Corbyn who will tell you it was nothing to do with Brexit, despite the collapse of the supposed Red Wall almost entirely coinciding with Leave voting areas, it was all down to Jeremy Corbyn personally. He was despised because he was a horrible, Britain hating, terrorist loving antisemite who wanted to reopen Auschwitz and the electorate saw right through that. Never mind that the same electorate voted for a Labour Party led by him in much greater numbers in an election where Brexit wasn't a defining fault line.

Also even though it's entirely true that the electorate were reacting directly to Corbyn on a personal level because he's a monster, it's also ridiculous to suggest that this means taking his policy platform and giving it someone without that baggage could work. He's a monster and his politics are deeply unpopular, with no appetite for them in either the country or Labour Party. Never mind that Corbynism without Corbyn was basically Starmer's whole leadership campaign which he then pivoted away from as soon as the membership voted for him based on it, or that the numbers Corbyn did in 2017 are vastly better than Starmer in 2024, both these things can be true at once. This is not a case of having your cake and eating it.

The truth is of course that all of these things were factors to some extent in Labour's defeat in 2019, but no one in any of the factions who can weaponise one aspect of it will admit that. You'll likely see the same with the SNP now.

People who want to see a rightwards shift, more influence for Forbes, an economic platform closer to the Tories and the rolling back of any social progressivism: this is due to the Bute House agreement. We let the loony left Greens lead us astray, we need to put clear space between us and them, Yousaf hadn't been gone long enough before this election for us to escape how his continuity of Sturgeon's programme with Harvie and Slater in his cabinet tainted us. We've not done enough on independence. Cut taxes, follow Labour on trans rights and the voters will flock back.

People who want to see a leftward shift back towards the politics of BHA with the Forbes wing marginalised: this is the direct result of Yousaf abandoning the BHA and 4D chessing himself out of office, leading to far too big a turnover of leaders. Bringing Forbes into the cabinet and trying to claim the centre ground has only pushed voters who were still happy to vote for us under Sturgeon away. We've not done enough on independence. Be more radical on taxation and on rent controls, try to outflank Labour on the left both economically and socially and the voters will flock back.

Not appearing in either of these arguments: the most high profile and previously most popular SNP politician ever who was still First Minister less than 18 months ago being mired in scandal with her husband who was the Party's Chief Executive being charged with embezzling funds from the party, with the slump in the SNP's polling directly stemming from this going public.

[Granny Danger]

35 minutes ago, eez-eh said:

I don’t disagree with the gist of this but if the SNP weren’t in such a mess it wouldn’t have been as big an issue.

Is the electorate full of idiots? Yes. Is the onus on the SNP to take meaningful action to win back votes? Also yes.

I’d agree with that.

[Fullerene]

Got a leaflet through the door from Lib Dems saying it between them and the SNP.

Strange way to keep me advised how the count is going.

[Freedom Farter]

Starmer gave an interview with The Sun where he talked about deporting Bangladeshis. Jonathan Ashworth, a Labour campaign strategist since the Brown era as well as an MP, was later asked by the BBC about Starmer's words. He doubled down on it and said deportations to Bangladesh and India (he specified those nationalities) were something the Tories had failed on but Labour would be strong on. Ashworth's seat is Leicester South, which has a large South Asian background population. They voted him out yesterday. Other factors will've contributed to those votes but Ashworth boasting his party want to deport Bangladeshis and Indians was remarkably stupid given the sensibilities in his constituency. I think the episode showed Labour's strategy of saying different things to different demographics has limits. Starmer might've been correct that The Sun readership would want to hear him being tough on immigration. That's not happening in a sealed chamber, though. Folk in Leicester who don't read The Sun are still going to become aware of those comments and the comments of their own MP backing Starmer up.

[lanky_ffc]

25 minutes ago, Zetterlund said:

So Jeremy Corbyn won more votes in 2019 despite one of the biggest political smear campaigns in history, and while his own party was quite openly trying to sabotage it from within, than Sir Keir did with fawning coverage versus the worst Tory government of recent times. 

Then JC holds his own seat as an independent against the party that kicked him out.

Jezza the real winner here IMO.

Also worth noting Starmer won far less votes in his own constituency compared to both 2017 and 2019.

[Scary Bear]

57 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I’d love the folk who are spouting ‘the SNP have only themselves to blame line’ to explain what Labour would have done better at Holyrood the last few years.

Also whilst not trying to minimise Campervangate it is barely a ripple compared to the tsunami of Tory Westminster scandals, and there will be much worse from Labour over the next five years.

How would anyone know what hypothetical Labour (why only them) would have done better?

my advice for the SNP would be.

You are a party of independence. If you don’t have that front and centre you are no different from Labour.

Never formally join up with the Greens again. Stop targeting key industries like oil and gas. Stay away from fringe issues like GRA.

Sort the ferries and pronto. That’s been dragging on for years. They are a lifeline to the islands. Then focus purely on mainstream issues, particularly improving NHS and education. Adequately fund the councils and make sure they are doing their job. If not, people notice. Stop centralising everything, it virtually always leads to poorer service for the general public.

Some of that advice is far too late to do anything about it. Let’s see what the public think in 2026.

[HibeeJibee]

Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map - BBC News

Interesting to look at Northern Ireland where headline is Sinn Fein finishing top... but in reality the seat balance remains the same as last time, with 9x Republican, 8x Unionist and 1x cross-community. DUP lost 3 seats to smaller unionists.

Republican share grew by just 0.2%... and including the Independent Unionist who beat the Alliance in North Down the Unionist vote also actually grew by 0.4% (indeed the Alliance vote fell by 1.8% across Ulster).

Unionist basic problem is having their votes split across DUP on 172,000 and UUP on 95,000 and TUV on 49,000 and the independent on 21,000 (total = 337,000); whereas the Republicans are concentrated into only Sinn Fein on 211,000 and SDLP on 89,000 with their only real drag being Aontu on 7,000 (total = 307,000).

Edited July 5 by HibeeJibee

[Granny Danger]

29 minutes ago, Zetterlund said:

So Jeremy Corbyn won more votes in 2019 despite one of the biggest political smear campaigns in history, and while his own party was quite openly trying to sabotage it from within, than Sir Keir did with fawning coverage versus the worst Tory government of recent times. 

Then JC holds his own seat as an independent against the party that kicked him out.

Jezza the real winner here IMO.

But other than an obscure sidebar on the Independent or Guardian website for a couple of days this will be forgotten or ignored and anyone mentioning it after a few days will be pilloried.

Sunak handed this victory to Starmer on a plate from disastrous policies to calling an election when his own party wasn’t ready.

 

[Granny Danger]

4 minutes ago, Scary Bear said:

How would anyone know what hypothetical Labour (why only them) would have done better?

my advice for the SNP would be.

You are a party of independence. If you don’t have that front and centre you are no different from Labour.

Never formally join up with the Greens again. Stop targeting key industries like oil and gas. Stay away from fringe issues like GRA.

Sort the ferries and pronto. That’s been dragging on for years. They are a lifeline to the islands. Then focus purely on mainstream issues, particularly improving NHS and education. Adequately fund the councils and make sure they are doing their job. If not, people notice. Stop centralising everything, it virtually always leads to poorer service for the general public.

Some of that advice is far too late to do anything about it. Let’s see what the public think in 2026.

Ferries might be a disaster but solving it is not a huge vote winner because it affects a tiny number of people.

A sign of decency* is being willing to address issues such as GRA even if it is not popular/can be twisted by opponents/doesn’t affect large numbers (not saying the SNP has handled that issue well but it was widely supported policy).  * there’s times it’s important to do the right thing even if it’s not politically popular.

The ability to adequately fund Councils (and the NHS and further/higher education) is almost exclusively down to how much funding the U.K. government gives the Scottish government.  Discretionary tax raising is limited and the SNP government has been criticised for what it has done in this respect.  You know this.

 

 

[eindhovendee]

The Lib Dems were always favourites to win where I am, I said it in previous posts but interesting to note that they only have a few hundred extra votes. 

The Tory deserters split between Labour and Reform handing LDs the win.

Sadly Jocky Scott only got one vote.

wiki not updated so from the MEN.

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

The ability to adequately fund Councils (and the NHS and further/higher education) is almost exclusively down to how much funding the U.K. government gives the Scottish government.  Discretionary tax raising is limited and the SNP government has been criticised for what it has done in this respect.  You know this.

Don't award uncosted, unaffordable pay rises to play to the gallery then.

[Granny Danger]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Don't award uncosted, unaffordable pay rises to play to the gallery then.

Fucking right.  These council workers should be grateful to have a job let alone be paid a decent wage.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

 

5 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Some minor things I’ve noticed in the Scottish results.

Reform hardly campaigned at all in Scotland yet seem to have done pretty well. I think in terms of votes they are ahead of the Greens and Lib Dems. There’s a paradox in Scottish politics sometimes - basically no-one campaigned for Leave in 2016 here but that side of the vote got nearly 40%. Reform could start to take away from the Tory vote in some places here in the next few years. Big *could* though.

The Greens seem to have done well where they stood, especially in a vote where they basically can’t win any seats. Kind of belies the idea that the BHA and the Greens was the big problem for the SNP.

Alba are completely cooked. Wouldn’t surprise me if they wound themselves up. Their two MPs posting around the level of Sid and Doris Bonkers-type candidates, there is obviously not any sort of appetite for swivel-eyes Indy maniacs in the country.

The average majority in the UK is now 6,000 and there really isn’t such a thing as a safe seat anymore. It used to be parties had to chip away for several elections to get a majority but now the changes are fast and sweeping. Labour have had a historic win tonight, straight after their worst result for 80+ years. The SNP have been hammered not long after winning nearly every seat. Politics on the UK is now far less predictable and stable than it was even 15 years ago.

Reform didn't have to campaign because the BBC et al kept giving that gobshite c**t a platform.