General Election 2024

[vikingTON]

19 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

SLab have zero incentive to do anything about Devolution - it would be fantastic if they did do something positive regards more powers but that isn't going to happen.

I agree that the SNP should avoid traps but equally they need to keep pushing - just don't choose pointless hills to die on. 

Keep hammering away about the democratic deficit - try to push Labour on how independence can legitimately be achieved (we all know they'll do f**k all) but also get the day-to-day bread and butter issues right, health and education being the big 2.

If Labour do try something stupid (especially with Murray as SoS) then take full advantage.

In the long run though they seriously need to consider the leadership of the party, move away from the Murrell control freakery and do things that matter to ordinary voters.

Democratic deficit is both a loser line and one that only interests highly politically engaged people - a fraction of the electorate. Both that and 'second referendum' are dead ends. The only plausible pitch at a Holyrood election is to devolve a handful of specific and tangible powers to Scotland and press the branch office and London HQ to arrive at a consistent line about whether those are justified.

I'm not convinced that'll work in the immediately forthcoming election - but similar to the 'penny for Scotland' tax policy that failed just after Holyrood was set up, it sets a credible benchmark to actually deliver that change. Scottish income taxes do now diverge from rUK, for the same ostensible purpose as outlined back then. 

The SNP needs to take the L and play the long game. It's simply not going to be able to effectively attack Labour from the left or about independence while it is still running the SG. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

9 minutes ago, virginton said:

Democratic deficit is both a loser line and one that only interests highly politically engaged people - a fraction of the electorate. Both that and 'second referendum' are dead ends. The only plausible pitch at a Holyrood election is to devolve a handful of specific and tangible powers to Scotland and press the branch office and London HQ to arrive at a consistent line about whether those are justified.

I'm not convinced that'll work in the immediately forthcoming election - but similar to the 'penny for Scotland' tax policy that failed just after Holyrood was set up, it sets a credible benchmark to actually deliver that change. Scottish income taxes do now diverge from rUK, for the same ostensible purpose as outlined back then. 

The SNP needs to take the L and play the long game. It's simply not going to be able to effectively attack Labour from the left or about independence while it is still running the SG. 

Wouldn't disagree with much of that - the democratic deficit stuff might not matter much in the short run but at least getting Westminster to say how independence could legitimately be achieved has to be a long term goal.

Without that any any future push on independence is futile - as if stands the goalposts are just moved.

Ultimately though the SG needs to be more competent than Westminster - demonstrate if can use the existing powers responsibly and effectively.

Edited July 6 by DeeTillEhDeh

[Freedom Farter]

14 hours ago, ClydeTon said:

Many more lost. Only six independents won, one of whom was Jeremy Corbyn, so five, tops.

The ones who lost were largely up against pro-Palestine Labour candidates anyway (or, like one in particular in Birmingham, were blatant homophobes and/or misogynists which made them unelectable)

So yes, some won, but the vast majority didn't. My point was that.

 

Akhmed Yakoob was that Birmingham independent and we can speculate he was rejected for his misogyny. Similarly, no Workers Party candidates won their seats. Their party leader Galloway has a history of misogynistic, homophobic and transphobic comments as well as atrociously bad takes on foreign conflicts (such as calling the Bucha massacre a "false flag"). Transphobic comments made by Jody McIntyre of the Workers Party will've contributed to his loss to Jess Phillips in a seat which otherwise could've been vulnerable for Labour. It seems clear that Yakoob and the Workers Party were rejected not for their Gaza solidarity but for their bigotry because there were non-bigoted independents who succeeded by prioritising Gaza solidarity.

This independents success was unprecedented in recent times. Only seven MPs had been elected as independents from 1950 to 2024. On Friday there, five were elected in one go. The new Health Secretary was nearly beaten by an independent. 

Anyway, why I picked out that part of your original comment is that it went against the rest of your sentiments. If there's one thing supporters of Scottish independence need to understand its this - you are not the establishment and you never will be. You support something which fundamentally goes against the interests of the ownership class. Trying to rely on a parallel ownership class like the SNP did - appealing to "Scottish" business - was always a losing strategy and now they're getting no donations at all from that avenue.

You're going to have to build a grass roots mass movement. Which puts you in the same boat as these independents in England. It doesn't matter what your stance is on the issue they were prioritising. It's how they managed to do it which can be learned from. 

[MarkoRaj]

15 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

4, I think, another independent won in NI

The single issue in that case being cheddar cheese and pineapple on a stick

[renton]

12 hours ago, scottsdad said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/06/defeated-joanna-cherry-snp-nicola-sturgeon-social-agenda

No mention of the fact that Cherry was beaten by P&B Edinburgh Branch favourite, Scott Arthur.

Noted that the Guardian have more or less annointed Anas Sarwar as FM already.

[JS_FFC]

One interesting thing to look out for is that there are a few dozen SNP MPs out of a job now and surely most of them will try to get selected for Holyrood in 2026 rather than waiting five years to try and win their seat back.

 

On current polling the SNP will probably lose about 15 seats altogether at the next Scottish election and that will consist of them losing dozens of constituencies but offsetting those losses with some list gains. If the vast majority of current SNP MSPs want to run again and also many former MPs want in too, there could be some very interesting selection battles ahead. 

[Freedom Farter]

https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2024/07/07/a-great-nothing-election-2024/

[cyderspaceman]

15 hours ago, Michael W said:

He was 'my' mp when I lived in Somerset. I sent him several emails and kept his replies. 

He was a brexiter twat. (pleonasm or tautology?)

I thought about contacting him with a wee gloat after he lost but thought, 'fkm, e's not worf it'. 

He's another one of the 'ship jumpers' who have zero interest in politics if they (or friends, family and business partners) cannot directly benefit personally from it.

i.e. a typical Tory

Edited July 7 by cyderspaceman

[sophia]

2 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2024/07/07/a-great-nothing-election-2024/

I've come across Cameron Archibald fairly often recently and his shrieking is something that I'm sure is so very important 

[Jedi2]

16 hours ago, virginton said:

Democratic deficit is both a loser line and one that only interests highly politically engaged people - a fraction of the electorate. Both that and 'second referendum' are dead ends. The only plausible pitch at a Holyrood election is to devolve a handful of specific and tangible powers to Scotland and press the branch office and London HQ to arrive at a consistent line about whether those are justified.

I'm not convinced that'll work in the immediately forthcoming election - but similar to the 'penny for Scotland' tax policy that failed just after Holyrood was set up, it sets a credible benchmark to actually deliver that change. Scottish income taxes do now diverge from rUK, for the same ostensible purpose as outlined back then. 

The SNP needs to take the L and play the long game. It's simply not going to be able to effectively attack Labour from the left or about independence while it is still running the SG. 

Is there a chance of the SNP running on an 'over 50% of the Constituency vote in 2026' and we start Independence negotiations..no Referendum, straight to division of assets etc? (As WM will just refuse any further Ref)

The positive of that strategy would be to try and get 'all' Indy supporters to back them. If they fall short of 50% it probably wouldn't be by much which would still give them most Constituency seats and still be in govt. They would need to run a campaign which was 2 parts..here is how Indy will work and 'Plan B' here is what we will do at Holyrood for the next 5 years if it's less than 50%.

I agree with your analysis that they would be better served by campaigning for incremental increase of powers (which would close Labour off in that area), and play a long game, but wonder of they will choose the 'all out' strategy suggested above.

Edited July 7 by Jedi2

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

52 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

Is there a chance of the SNP running on an 'over 50% of the Constituency vote in 2026' and we start Independence negotiations..no Referendum, straight to division of assets etc? (As WM will just refuse any further Ref)

The positive of that strategy would be to try and get 'all' Indy supporters to back them. If they fall short of 50% it probably wouldn't be by much which would still give them most Constituency seats and still be in govt. They would need to run a campaign which was 2 parts..here is how Indy will work and 'Plan B' here is what we will do at Holyrood for the next 5 years if it's less than 50%.

I agree with your analysis that they would be better served by campaigning for incremental increase of powers (which would close Labour off in that area), and play a long game, but wonder of they will choose the 'all out' strategy suggested above.

The all-out strategy, coupled with competent governance at Holyrood, is their only way back IMO.

You wonder how many supporters of independence would believe that they'd meaningfully force independence negotiations though.  I get the impression that their base don't trust them anymore, although admittedly this is just based on anecdotal evidence.

I reckon there are larger, covert forces working away in the background though, which would be far harder to combat.

Not that I'm complaining!

[ClydeTon]

14 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

Akhmed Yakoob was that Birmingham independent and we can speculate he was rejected for his misogyny. Similarly, no Workers Party candidates won their seats. Their party leader Galloway has a history of misogynistic, homophobic and transphobic comments as well as atrociously bad takes on foreign conflicts (such as calling the Bucha massacre a "false flag"). Transphobic comments made by Jody McIntyre of the Workers Party will've contributed to his loss to Jess Phillips in a seat which otherwise could've been vulnerable for Labour. It seems clear that Yakoob and the Workers Party were rejected not for their Gaza solidarity but for their bigotry because there were non-bigoted independents who succeeded by prioritising Gaza solidarity.

This independents success was unprecedented in recent times. Only seven MPs had been elected as independents from 1950 to 2024. On Friday there, five were elected in one go. The new Health Secretary was nearly beaten by an independent. 

Anyway, why I picked out that part of your original comment is that it went against the rest of your sentiments. If there's one thing supporters of Scottish independence need to understand its this - you are not the establishment and you never will be. You support something which fundamentally goes against the interests of the ownership class. Trying to rely on a parallel ownership class like the SNP did - appealing to "Scottish" business - was always a losing strategy and now they're getting no donations at all from that avenue.

You're going to have to build a grass roots mass movement. Which puts you in the same boat as these independents in England. It doesn't matter what your stance is on the issue they were prioritising. It's how they managed to do it which can be learned from. 

Independence needs to go back to the people, grassroots, yes.

It's what got it going in the run up to indyref and it's the reason support seems to be stable / rising, regardless of the SNP's antics.

I'm fairly dissilusioned with the SNP now, solely because they haven't done anything and seem to think it's their (failing) way or the highway. They were relying on "mandates" for independence and now that's gone. At least, until '26.

[Side note - this shows the risk of that strategy. This defeat can now be easily spinned to be a "mandate for the union", and the SNP of all people should know how quick unionists are to cling to those types of things.]

As for how we get there, I've got no clue, and that's why I'm not an active politician or activist.

I just know it's not working as things are, and that there needs to be a renewed focus on the people, not the politicians who, to me, seem a bit too comfortable as things are.

At least Ronnie Cowan's gone. That I'm happy about.

[DC92]

4 hours ago, ClydeTon said:

 

[Side note - this shows the risk of that strategy. This defeat can now be easily spinned to be a "mandate for the union", and the SNP of all people should know how quick unionists are to cling to those types of things.]

Not really, given the multiple mandates that the SNP won were not acknowledged by the UK government or by Unionists as a whole.

Unionists were always going to present this result a vote for the union, as they have done in previous elections where the SNP didn't receive over 50% of the popular vote.

[ICTChris]

On 04/07/2024 at 23:41, ICTChris said:

Why has Sturgeon agreed to do this show? Sitting there like a lemon while her party gets annihilated, with a major factor being her problems with criminal investigations.

Many politicians and leaders are egoists to an extent but she is one of the worst.

Kevin McKenna writes in his Herald column she was paid £10,000 for her appearance, so I guess that explains it. He’s probably not the most neutral source although I assume she’ll have to declare it as she is still an MSP.

[MarkoRaj]

12 hours ago, ClydeTon said:

At least Ronnie Cowan's gone. That I'm happy about.

How come? The labour goon that won Inverclude seems a bit of a fud

[cyderspaceman]

I don't think covering the UK prime minister's house  in England flags is a good look.

Got to say if it were one of the other UK nations doing well at the football,  (ha) would it be their flag?       Can't find a flag for NI , will this do? 

 

Edited July 8 by cyderspaceman

[AndyM]

12 hours ago, ClydeTon said:

Independence needs to go back to the people, grassroots, yes.

It's what got it going in the run up to indyref and it's the reason support seems to be stable / rising, regardless of the SNP's antics.

I'm fairly dissilusioned with the SNP now, solely because they haven't done anything and seem to think it's their (failing) way or the highway. They were relying on "mandates" for independence and now that's gone. At least, until '26.

[Side note - this shows the risk of that strategy. This defeat can now be easily spinned to be a "mandate for the union", and the SNP of all people should know how quick unionists are to cling to those types of things.]

As for how we get there, I've got no clue, and that's why I'm not an active politician or activist.

I just know it's not working as things are, and that there needs to be a renewed focus on the people, not the politicians who, to me, seem a bit too comfortable as things are.

At least Ronnie Cowan's gone. That I'm happy about.

They've been guilty of believing their own press telling them how wonderful they are.

Independence will be the long game but won't be front and centre any more. They need to move completely past the Sturgeon era and change the internal dynamics of the way the party is run. It has to be much more transparent.  If Swinney concentrates on the NHS, Education and the Cost of Living Crisis showing absolute focus on that and not allowing the party to get sidetracked with stuff like the Gender ID Bill and the Hate Crime bill (scrapping this wouldn't be a bad idea along with sending Matheson to the back benches) then he will be able to turn things around.

The road back starts with being competent and showing it.

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, AndyM said:

They've been guilty of believing their own press telling them how wonderful they are.

Independence will be the long game but won't be front and centre any more. They need to move completely past the Sturgeon era and change the internal dynamics of the way the party is run. It has to be much more transparent.  If Swinney concentrates on the NHS, Education and the Cost of Living Crisis showing absolute focus on that and not allowing the party to get sidetracked with stuff like the Gender ID Bill and the Hate Crime bill (scrapping this wouldn't be a bad idea along with sending Matheson to the back benches) then he will be able to turn things around.

The road back starts with being competent and showing it.

I agree with some of what you say about concentrating on core policies but other parts of your post are bullshit.

You fall into the trap that the media report that suggests the SNP and Scottish Government are spending all their time discussing gender ID and that it is only the SNP that supported the bill.  You do realise that’s just nonsense don’t you.

If you’re one of these people who thinks that we should completely ignore people with gender ID issues why not come out and say it.

[AndyM]

3 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

You fall into the trap that the media report that suggests the SNP and Scottish Government are spending all their time discussing gender ID and that it is only the SNP that supported the bill.  You do realise that’s just nonsense don’t you.

If you’re one of these people who thinks that we should completely ignore people with gender ID issues why not come out and say it.

I never said that.

I'm saying the focus needs to be on NHS, Education and Cost of Living front and centre.  GRR is dead now, it's been overruled and there is nothing Holyrood can do about it. We need to move on. 

Swinney has 2 years before the Holyrood elections. Labour will likely be very unpopular by then so if he gets the basics right, the SNP can win again as the largest party. 

[Salvo Montalbano]

10 hours ago, DC92 said:

Not really, given the multiple mandates that the SNP won were not acknowledged by the UK government or by Unionists as a whole.

Unionists were always going to present this result a vote for the union, as they have done in previous elections where the SNP didn't receive over 50% of the popular vote.

Nearly spat out my cornflakes when I saw a clip of Martin Geissler asking Sarwar why 37 seats was a "clear mandate" for Labour while 57 seats wasn't a mandate for the SNP. Sarwar was so perplexed by this line of questioning that Geissler had to ask Sarwar what he thought "a mandate" meant. He's not very bright, is he? Could be Labour's weak link in 2026.