General Election 2024 Predictions

[KirkieRR]

Labour will win.

Labour will gain seats in Scotland but not as many as they hoped for.

SNP will lose seats but not as many as they feared.

Ian Murray will behave in an exceptionally punchable manner.

Bungling Boris Johnson's return will be demanded by the fruitloop wing of the Tories.

ALBA will be humiliated and NotRev Stu will be FEWMIN. 

[Mr Waldo]

Labour will get most seats and claim a great victory.

SNP will get more Scottish seats than Labour and claim a victory.

Conservatives will lose but by less than predicted and claim a victory.

Liberal Democrates will get one more MP than now and claim victory.

Reform will get over ten percent of English vote and claim victory.

 

[VictorOnopko]

3 hours ago, VictorOnopko said:

I'm picturing Police Scotland spilling their cuppas and getting their feet off their desks when the news came through yesterday - got to get this back in the news in a single month rather than 5 or 6!

[lichtgilphead]

3 minutes ago, VictorOnopko said:

It's just a complete and utter coincidence, I'm sure.

It will also be a complete and utter coincidence when the pleading diet is scheduled for July 3

Edited May 23 by lichtgilphead
Autocorrect

[Dunfermline Don]

7 minutes ago, VictorOnopko said:

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

6 hours ago, Hedgecutter said:

I wonder who the P&B Tory Four are.

@Lex will be one of them.

[JS_FFC]

There seem to be four main battlegrounds at this election:

 

1) The red wall - The Conservatives won over 40 former Labour heartland seats in the north and midlands of England. On current polling numbers they’ll all go back red.

 

2) Middle England - Once upon a time, long before the term red wall had ever been used, Tony Blair won a landslide 328 seats in England of the 530 seats in England, but they lost 37 of them in 2005 and another 87 in 2010, most never came back. Labour need to win bellwether seats in places like Nuneaton to have any hope of a whomping majority.

 

3) Tartan Wall - 40 of the 41 seats that Scottish Labour won in 2005 and 2010 belong to the SNP now. They’ll be hoping to win at least half of them back.

 

4) Blue Wall - Lib Dem’s are targeting 20 Tory held remain voting seats in the south of England.

 

 

[Jedi2]

Based on current direction of travel.

'Defacto Ref'

Labour 38

SNP 10

Tories 7

Lib Dems 2

 

 

[Fullerene]

Labour will win the election.

Bookshops and newsagents will have lots of books and magazines with Starmer on the front cover.

1. Man of the Year
2. Man of the Hour
3. The Path to Victory
4. The Road to Victory

Other books will show Sunak looking sad and dejected.

1. Is this the end of the Tories?
2. Yesterday's Man

Six months later, charity shops will be throwing these books in the bin as soon as they are donated.

[Salvo Montalbano]

Labour win with a majority less than Blair's landslide. Corbyn to win his seat as an Independent but Labour regain Galloway's.

SNP to hang on to be biggest party in Scotland with a similar number of voters to last time but tactical voting sees Conservative and Lib Dem voters coalesceing behind Labour in some marginals. 

Conservatives to hang on in middle England and the South West. Braverman to survive with a reduced majority, Rees-Mogg to lose his seat and blame boundary changes and Brexit not being hard enough. Rishi to win his seat with a tiny majority before he packs up and moves to San Fran.

Reform fail to win a single seat.

Greens hold Brighton Pavillion with a reduced majority and come close to winning in another couple of seats but remain with just one at the end of the night. 

The BBC to win the "ratings war" but most people say that Channel 4 has the best coverage. 

Think I'll leave Northern Ireland to @Jacksgranda. Plaid will do well in Wales though. Think that covers almost everything. 

[The Golden God]

NI will be very interesting, will the million unionist parties be able to put aside their differences and vote tactically, the DUP and TUV have already agreed to not stand in North Down to allow an independent Unionist a better shot. 

[Cairn Terrier]

7 hours ago, The Golden God said:

NI will be very interesting, will the million unionist parties be able to put aside their differences and vote tactically, the DUP and TUV have already agreed to not stand in North Down to allow an independent Unionist a better shot. 

Perhaps not the best phrase to use when discussing Northern Ireland.

[betting competition]

If the conservative vote holds in Scotland then I would predict that SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn will lose his seat. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

22 minutes ago, betting competition said:

If the conservative vote holds in Scotland then I would predict that SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn will lose his seat. 

I would have thought the opposite - Conservative vote holding in Scotland would mean they are not coalescing around the Unionist candidate.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

This is YouGov's latest Scottish polling predictions;

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45739-scotland-mrp-snp-could-fall-just-27-seats-if-elect

Labour 24

SNP 27

Tories 4

Lib Dems 4

I personally think they may do slightly better than this as Labour's vacuum of policy comes under scrutiny.

If you also look at the seats, YouGov are predicting Labour to pick up 6 of the 7 Glasgow seats - which I think is optimistic. I'd personally be running a campaign that reminded Glaswegians how shite Labour were at running their council.

My prediction

Labour 21

SNP 31

Tories 3

Lib Dems 4

Edited May 24 by DeeTillEhDeh

[Jacksgranda]

9 hours ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

Labour win with a majority less than Blair's landslide. Corbyn to win his seat as an Independent but Labour regain Galloway's.

SNP to hang on to be biggest party in Scotland with a similar number of voters to last time but tactical voting sees Conservative and Lib Dem voters coalesceing behind Labour in some marginals. 

Conservatives to hang on in middle England and the South West. Braverman to survive with a reduced majority, Rees-Mogg to lose his seat and blame boundary changes and Brexit not being hard enough. Rishi to win his seat with a tiny majority before he packs up and moves to San Fran.

Reform fail to win a single seat.

Greens hold Brighton Pavillion with a reduced majority and come close to winning in another couple of seats but remain with just one at the end of the night. 

The BBC to win the "ratings war" but most people say that Channel 4 has the best coverage. 

Think I'll leave Northern Ireland to @Jacksgranda. Plaid will do well in Wales though. Think that covers almost everything. 

The Jeffrey Donaldson scandal and boundary changes might have an impact, particularly in Lagan Valley. If the TUV field candidates in every constituency they could siphon off enough votes from the DUP to allow Alliance and/or Sinn Fein to gain a seat.

Sinn Fein and Alliance up, DUP down, the others don't matter.

I don't really care - things were starting to settle down with the Executive being up and running, this just throws everything up in the air. I know there would have been a GE this year anyway, but another 4/5 months of "normality" would have done no harm. Also parades will be in full swing.

Edited May 24 by Jacksgranda
sllepnig

[JS_FFC]

25 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

This i YouGov's latest Scottish polling predictions;

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45739-scotland-mrp-snp-could-fall-just-27-seats-if-elect

Labour 24

SNP 27

Tories 4

Lib Dems 4

I personally think they may do slightly better than this as Labour's vacuum of policy comes under scrutiny.

If you also look at the seats, YouGov are predicting Labour to pick up 6 of the 7 Glasgow seats - which I think is optimistic. I'd personally be running a campaign that reminded Glaswegians how shite Labour were at running their council.

My prediction

Labour 21

SNP 31

Tories 3

Lib Dems 4

Your prediction and yougov aren’t widely different. Both have the SNP losing between one and two dozen seats, Labour coming somewhat close to being the largest party in Scotland but ultimately falling short, and the Tories and Lib Dems continuing to hold a handful of seats each.

 

In terms of the non-SNP v Labour seats, I think:

 

Lib Dems hold Orkney & Shetland of course.

Lib Dems should hold all of their seats (Edinburgh West, Fife North East and Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross). I also think they’ll gain Mid Dunbartonshire.

I have the Tories on 4 seats. The 3 southernmost seats in the country, plus one in the north east. I think the SNP will win Andrew Bowie’s seat and also the seat being vacated by Douglas Ross.

 

 

Ian Murray holds his seat of course they’ll be weighing his majority.

That leaves about 45 seats that are SNP held with Labour as the likely challenger. Places like East Lothian, Kirkcaldy, and the Rutherglen seat will go easily. They were Labour seats in 2017 and the local SNP candidates from last time have brought dishonour on the party by defecting to Alba or being Margaret Ferrier.

 

If Labour only win this small handful of seats, it’s a disappointing night for them in Scotland, but there’s a tipping point around the 10%-15% swing mark where huge swathes of the two main cities, the central belt and Fife would go back to Labour. The SNP look good to hold on to most of their seats further north and south than that tartan wall, but if Labour can achieve a 20% swing then the SNP could be reduced to just the handful of seats like the Tories and Lib Dem’s.

 

 

Roughly:

 

5% swing SNP > Lab - Just a handful of seats

 

10% swing - About 14 seats will go

 

15% swing - Labour would lead the popular vote by a few points in this scenario. The SNP would lose about 2/3 of their MPs

 

20% swing - Highly unlikely as this would represent a 15% Labour lead, but the SNP would win just 4 seats. They did achieve this swing in the Rutherglen by-election but of course people vote differently on such occasions and there’s an element of protest voting after the Ferrier scandal.

[Salvo Montalbano]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

This i YouGov's latest Scottish polling predictions;

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45739-scotland-mrp-snp-could-fall-just-27-seats-if-elect

Labour 24

SNP 27

Tories 4

Lib Dems 4

I personally think they may do slightly better than this as Labour's vacuum of policy comes under scrutiny.

If you also look at the seats, YouGov are predicting Labour to pick up 6 of the 7 Glasgow seats - which I think is optimistic. I'd personally be running a campaign that reminded Glaswegians how shite Labour were at running their council.

My prediction

Labour 21

SNP 31

Tories 3

Lib Dems 4

Can't take a site seriously that mentions "new leader Hamsa Yousef". The first instance can be read that it was his leadership which has - in part - led to a fall in SNP support, but near the bottom of the article where it mentions Labour potentially picking up Na h-Eileanan an Iar as being bad news for Yousef is where I gave up on them. Sloppy, sloppy stuff given it says it was published today. 

[Lex]

1 hour ago, betting competition said:

If the conservative vote holds in Scotland then I would predict that SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn will lose his seat. 

Shades of 2017 if that happens, when SNP leader at Westminster Sleazeball Salmond famously got the Tory boot out of Gordon and his Deputy Angus Robertson got the Tory boot out of Moray on the same night. 

In terms of predictions the SNP will certainly lose vote share and seats, but they will still be the largest party in Scotland. Suspect they will end up on around 30-35 of the 57. Labour will end up on an overall majority of around 100. 

[JS_FFC]

15 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

Can't take a site seriously that mentions "new leader Hamsa Yousef". The first instance can be read that it was his leadership which has - in part - led to a fall in SNP support, but near the bottom of the article where it mentions Labour potentially picking up Na h-Eileanan an Iar as being bad news for Yousef is where I gave up on them. Sloppy, sloppy stuff given it says it was published today. 

Again, the article is dated 24/5/2023, exactly a year ago today. The information in it was relevant as at that date.