Rugby Union

[come on shire]

Interesting to see if there's more shouts for promotion and relegation As Georgia have beat Italy... 

[John Lambies Doos]

Interesting to see if there's more shouts for promotion and relegation As Georgia have beat Italy... 

Ah never saw that...their win in cardiff(something we can't do) will buy them some more time

[honestly united]

To be fair I think it will take them beating Wales in the WC before it gets much more traction

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

Been thinking a bit more about the Watson/Darge question, and had a quiet morning at work so went back to have a look at the stats to see if there might be a "correct" answer to the question.

Presuming that Fagerson and Ritchie are pretty solid in the 6 and 8 shirts I've had a look at their statistical strengths to see who completes the picture the most. Obviously Ritchie and Cummings missed most of the 6N and annoyingly can't find overall stats for the 21 tournament so looking at individual stats reports for them, and then the 22 overall stats for the remainder. The 22 stats don't have ruck hit statistics so have used players' 21 stats for this too (working below). These are not perfect stats and unfortunately some are covered in one set but not in the other. The defenders beaten stat I've used here is based on the "broken tackles" and "line breaks" figures that they have used here but may be inaccurate. Dominant tackles are hard to be sure of for Ritchie and Cummings as well, as unfortunately the match reports just show the top 3 per team for that so there are times where they may have made 1, which I've marked red in their workings. There also wasn't a consistent "gain line success" stat in there so metres per carry is as good as we can do there. In the end, there are some areas where I couldn't get stats, namely:

• Schoeman and Darge's ruck figures
• Ritchie and Cummings passes and handling errors

The assumption, assuming everyone is fit and firing, is that the tight five looks like: Schoeman, Turner, Fagerson, Gray, Cummings. I think that's probably fair but there's defo question marks in a few of those positions too. 

Perhaps the most striking thing in terms of the back row stats is just how valuable M. Fagerson is. He is:

• 3rd in metres per carry
• 4th in minutes per tackle
• 4th in minutes per ruck
• 2nd in minutes per carry
• 2nd in minutes per turnover

Also, while he is 5th he is in the same bracket as our top carriers in terms of carries per defenders beaten, and has extremely low error and penalty counts. He's a tremendously hardworking player and is quietly impactful on both sides of the ball. Dempsey is a very exciting possibility but Fagerson deserves the shirt at least for now.  

Ritchie is at least the co-leader for dominant tackles, is a high-volume if not particularly effective carrier, and a very useful breakdown threat. His tackle volume is generally good as well, I think it's massively skewed here by the improbable 3 tackles in 65 minutes they have for him against England last year. His intangibles (b*****dry/leadership/lineout option), size/athleticism and potential value as a link man in attack are also very strong, so I think the 6 shirt is probably his right enough. 

As an aside, another surprise was how low impact Cummings is there. He's key for set pieces (if this were the exact lineup) but other than hitting rucks he's neither high volume or high impact. I'd expected him to be a much more effective carrier given his size and relative dynamism. Maybe Skinner or Gilchrist are a more impactful option there.

Overall, if you break it down into types I'd say the 7 players outside the openside position break down broadly into:

• Ruck workhorses (Z.Fagerson, Gray, Cummings) 
• Impactful carriers/jackals (Schoeman, Turner, M.Fagerson) 
• Enforcer/all-rounder (Ritchie) 

Darge and Watson obviously both fall broadly into that second category, and I suppose it just depends what side of that you feel the team most needs at the moment. In comparison, Darge makes more dominant tackles, and a lot, but Watson makes more. Darge has frankly ridiculous turnover stats, but that's a side of the game we know Watson has skills in and which he may have suppressed playing alongside Darge. Both are neck in neck in terms of beating defenders, with Darge our second highest volume carrier and Watson making the most metres per carry in the pack. 

All that to say, as I said before I think you could literally flip a coin for them at the moment. I think really it just depends on a couple of factors as we move into the autumn and are hopefully building a team which we aim to keep together for the WC:

• Is Dempsey going to be playing and if so is he as impactful as it seems he could be? 
• If yes to the above, are we aiming for a 6-2 split on the bench? 

I think if it's a 6-2 Watson starts as our most abrasive carrier, with another strong carrier in Dempsey and a huge breakdown threat in Darge on the bench. If it's a 5-3 then Darge starts with Watson on the bench to empty his entire tank and chuck people about for 30 minutes. 

Here's the working for 21 stats:
 

[Detournement]

Fantastic work @Genuine Hibs Fan

Matt Fagerson has been different class for a couple of years now. He just needs an injury free run.

[honestly united]

Fagerson is very underrated, as there is always a perception he is too small to be a number 8 when you compare him to Vunipola, Faletau, Aldritt etc. I always wondered if he would be an option at blindside as he is quick enough to play there, which would give you flexibility of having Fagerson and Dempsey for 8, Ritchie as first choice 6 with Watson, Darge and Fagerson as cover (given Ritchie is a converted openside anyway) , and Watson and Darge as openside, with Ritchie able to cover there also.

You have back ups in Bradbury, Christie, etc its one area we should be ok in. 

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

17 hours ago, Detournement said:

Fantastic work @Genuine Hibs Fan

Matt Fagerson has been different class for a couple of years now. He just needs an injury free run.

Ty mate, was a fun way to spend the morning really. Agree about Fagerson, have always felt he was more effective than he gets credit for but didn't realise quite how much work he gets through on average. It seems like we are trying to pick up the pace of our attack again so hopefully likes of him and Turner get more opportunities attacking fringes rather than the guts of the defence. As I said I was surprised in Cummings' stats, should have included Skinner as well as I think he's maybe actually the best all-round lock we have. Him and Gray gives no lineout-general type but with 4 good jumpers I don't know if that should make too much difference.  

Where do you stand on the centres at the moment? There were some issues on Saturday but I think a lot of that was Kinghorn being genuinely quite dreadful at 10 having watched it back. But I like the combo, again carrying is very strong with Johnson underrated taking the ball off 10 and Bennett having a good line in Ringrose-esque surprise carries off 9. Duhan seemed to be getting much more involved as a crash ball option in the midfield, and on pick and goes, which is good if he's being watched more closely in the wide channels than when he broke through. Think Johnson and Bennett also offer strong defence and decent to good hands/lines. I really want to see either Redpath or Hutchinson get a run inside Harris as well. I think those are the two options.

It's pure fantasy rugby but I'm getting quite keen on aiming for a 6-2 split as well. Think the centre partnership is important to know who the #23 would be. Depending on that could see Kinghorn, Hutchinson, Redpath or maybe Huw Jones. I think it suits because realistically injury aside we want Finn to play 80 at 10. 

 

[honestly united]

9 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

Ty mate, was a fun way to spend the morning really. Agree about Fagerson, have always felt he was more effective than he gets credit for but didn't realise quite how much work he gets through on average. It seems like we are trying to pick up the pace of our attack again so hopefully likes of him and Turner get more opportunities attacking fringes rather than the guts of the defence. As I said I was surprised in Cummings' stats, should have included Skinner as well as I think he's maybe actually the best all-round lock we have. Him and Gray gives no lineout-general type but with 4 good jumpers I don't know if that should make too much difference.  

Where do you stand on the centres at the moment? There were some issues on Saturday but I think a lot of that was Kinghorn being genuinely quite dreadful at 10 having watched it back. But I like the combo, again carrying is very strong with Johnson underrated taking the ball off 10 and Bennett having a good line in Ringrose-esque surprise carries off 9. Duhan seemed to be getting much more involved as a crash ball option in the midfield, and on pick and goes, which is good if he's being watched more closely in the wide channels than when he broke through. Think Johnson and Bennett also offer strong defence and decent to good hands/lines. I really want to see either Redpath or Hutchinson get a run inside Harris as well. I think those are the two options.

It's pure fantasy rugby but I'm getting quite keen on aiming for a 6-2 split as well. Think the centre partnership is important to know who the #23 would be. Depending on that could see Kinghorn, Hutchinson, Redpath or maybe Huw Jones. I think it suits because realistically injury aside we want Finn to play 80 at 10. 

 

My preference is always to have the more creative / attacking player at outside centre as that way you are more likely to create space and chances for our back 3, and with a back 3 of Duhan, Hogg and Darcy they will finish off chance if we can create them. I like Harris, and defensively I think he gives us a solidity in hte backs we have never had before. I think we are in a good position now as we have the opportunity to play different styles with the players we have, and with Finn we have a stand off that can execute on that.

I much prefer the 5-3 split as with 2 you need a scrum half and then 1 other who is covering the rest of the backs - imagine both centers getting injured and we only have Horne and Kinghorn on the bench? Your shuffling Finn to 12, maybe Hogg to 13 and Darcy to full back? As fun as that may be going forward defensively it would be a nightmare. I'd much rather have say Hastings and Jones as then at least you have players that can make a difference coming on.

[peasy23]

Hamish Watson apparently missed a tackle on Saturday, his first for Scotland since 2019, ending a run of 332 tackles made.

[John Lambies Doos]

Scotland u20 well beaten by Ireland.
Italy beating England with 2 mins to go

Edit, Ireland were 24 0 up after 17 mins.
Pathetic

[come on shire]

John Dalziel is the next name floating around as the new Glasgow Warriors head coach. 

[Savage Henry]

On 10/07/2022 at 21:15, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

Yeah, I've not been so against kinghorn playing ten this series as for better or worse he's third choice right now and in the 6-2 scenario is probably the most useful 23. Having Watson or Darge and Dempsey off the bench is a very intriguing situation in any case, but feel like if anyone would end up with the 6-2 catching them out with in-game injuries it would be us. End up with kinghorn at 10, duhan in the centres and White on the wing or something 

Anyway, horribly predictable rugby player Tory moment.

 

 

Jesus.   I’ve never quite seen it with Chris Harris, but that’s besides the point.  I would imagine that thread will be sadly longer than we’d like.

[Savage Henry]

19 hours ago, peasy23 said:

Hamish Watson apparently missed a tackle on Saturday, his first for Scotland since 2019, ending a run of 332 tackles made.
 

He’s lost it.  Sturgeon must condem and Townsend must drop.,

[Detournement]

On 12/07/2022 at 09:31, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

 

Where do you stand on the centres at the moment? 

 

 

I'd say centre is similar to lock in that there's probably not a huge difference between the leading contenders so i'd go on form, fitness and the strengths/weaknesses of the opposition rather than getting hung up on definite starters. 

Harris is probably the best option at 13 for South Africa and Ireland but Bennett or Huw Jones would be better suited playing Wales, England, Italy, Tonga and probably France. 

If Can Redpath gets fit and plays like a Rolls Royce then great. If he doesn't then Johnson is a good player who plays well with Finn. The main thing is Tuipulto is nowhere near any big games. 

[peasy23]

Doddie Weir: "I'm flabbergasted to still be here."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-62151338?at_campaign=64&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom2=twitter&at_medium=custom7&at_custom4=0B71701A-02C6-11ED-9EB1-658CFC756850&at_custom3=%40BBCScotlandNews

[Ignoramus]

17 hours ago, Detournement said:

I'd say centre is similar to lock in that there's probably not a huge difference between the leading contenders so i'd go on form, fitness and the strengths/weaknesses of the opposition rather than getting hung up on definite starters. 

Harris is probably the best option at 13 for South Africa and Ireland but Bennett or Huw Jones would be better suited playing Wales, England, Italy, Tonga and probably France. 

If Can Redpath gets fit and plays like a Rolls Royce then great. If he doesn't then Johnson is a good player who plays well with Finn. The main thing is Tuipulto is nowhere near any big games. 

 

[Detournement]

We're going to get horsed.

Townsend is obviously impressed by winning without a 10 and is now challenging himself to win without a 10 or 12. Rufus Maclean is miles off the standard required as well. That's the worst backline we have put out in years.

Edited July 14, 2022 by Detournement

[GAD]

I genuinely have no idea what that team is all about. Surely White and Graham must be injured?

At least the pack still looks relatively strong, which is where the game was won last weekend, but it's mental that every other position is now open to rotation on this tour except 10. I get the whole thing about giving players a chance and seeing what they can do, but most of these guys have had chances. Why can we not just put our best team and hopefully win the series? It's the same fucking about that cost us a chance at beating the Boks in the autumn. Ireland never f**k around like this in these games, they just pick their best team and win.

[Detournement]

2 minutes ago, GAD said:

I genuinely have no idea what that team is all about. Surely White and Graham must be injured?

At least the pack still looks relatively strong, which is where the game was won last weekend, but it's mental that every other position is now open to rotation on this tour except 10. I get the whole thing about giving players a chance and seeing what they can do, but most of these guys have had chances. Why can we not just put our best team and hopefully win the series? It's the same fucking about that cost us a chance at beating the Boks in the autumn. Ireland never f**k around like this in these games, they just pick their best team and win.

Graham is apparently a delayed concussion from the headshot he took early on that the Irish TMO ignored. White is probably out because Townsend thinks Horne needs a run out.

Argentina will target Smith and Maclean from the outset. I will be very surprised if they can cope with it.

 

[GAD]

6 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Graham is apparently a delayed concussion from the headshot he took early on that the Irish TMO ignored. White is probably out because Townsend thinks Horne needs a run out.

Argentina will target Smith and Maclean from the outset. I will be very surprised if they can cope with it.

 

I guess if Townsend refuses to play Kinghorn anywhere other than 10, with Hutchinson, Graham, Huw Jones and Rowe all injured, Hogg, Hoyland and Maitland at home then there isn't really anyone else in the squad, is there? Got to be McLean and Smith.