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Israel And The Palestinians (now with added Iran)


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On 07/02/2024 at 11:23, Shadow Play said:

Thanks for taking the time to reply.  Thanks to @welshbairn as well.  At the risk of sounding incredibly negative the more I read about the issue the more it seems unlikely there will be any workable solution agreed upon for at least a generation.

The chance to stop the cycle has already been lost this time. The IDF excursion into Gaza has generated more Hamas recruits than the total fighters they have killed. The Hamas attack into Israel likewise. Leadership on both sides seems to actually fundamentally want war rather than peace, as it serves their purposes better (and allows them to remain in control). That’s a fair bit of the relative positions, which you noted cannot be reconciled.

Hamas made their effort to disrupt, and Israel made their effort to effectively negate Hamas…both sides have failed. There was a small window where a pan-Arab peacekeeping force installed between Israel and the Palestinians might have worked, but the costs would have been huge, and the dysfunction in Congress weakened the Biden Administration’s efforts on that front, as there was very little belief that U.S. support would remain for any extended period…on top of the poor messaging and infighting.

The majority of Arab countries are now accepting of the need to normalise relations with Israel, but that is somewhat detrimental to the Palestinian cause (at least in terms of return). However, as long as Israel calls the Palestinian’s things like “vermin who need to be exterminated”, the relationship with other Arab States will be at least tenuous, and more often near absent.

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The bombardment on Rafah began overnight. This is where every Gazan was told to evacuate to, it is now overcrowded with well over a million people who have nowhere else to go. If material support for Israel doesn't stop now, it's never going to.

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Despite that ruling, Dutch PM Mark Rutte is in Israel with Netanyahu today, presumably in solidarity.

I've been positively surprised at how the courts, the media and the public have responded to this Gaza situation, in many countries.

Yet politicians and governments in those same countries have been shameless. Glorified arms dealers.

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On 10/02/2024 at 04:03, TxRover said:

The chance to stop the cycle has already been lost this time. The IDF excursion into Gaza has generated more Hamas recruits than the total fighters they have killed. The Hamas attack into Israel likewise. Leadership on both sides seems to actually fundamentally want war rather than peace, as it serves their purposes better (and allows them to remain in control). That’s a fair bit of the relative positions, which you noted cannot be reconciled.

Hamas made their effort to disrupt, and Israel made their effort to effectively negate Hamas…both sides have failed. There was a small window where a pan-Arab peacekeeping force installed between Israel and the Palestinians might have worked, but the costs would have been huge, and the dysfunction in Congress weakened the Biden Administration’s efforts on that front, as there was very little belief that U.S. support would remain for any extended period…on top of the poor messaging and infighting.

The majority of Arab countries are now accepting of the need to normalise relations with Israel, but that is somewhat detrimental to the Palestinian cause (at least in terms of return). However, as long as Israel calls the Palestinian’s things like “vermin who need to be exterminated”, the relationship with other Arab States will be at least tenuous, and more often near absent.

Israel and Palestine favouring right wing nationalists like much of the rest of the West and beyond. Unfortunately within that context, it means bloodshed, rather than Brexit.

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Egypt apparently mooting withdrawing from a peace treaty with Israel if they don’t stop operations in Rafah. That would draw Israeli military resources to the Egyptian border, and might result in Egypt stopping their efforts to stop equipment flowing into Gaza. There is also a likelihood of this causing additional Arab countries to withdraw from agreements, as Egypt has been one of the most moderate Arab states in dealing with Israel.

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On 10/02/2024 at 04:03, TxRover said:

However, as long as Israel calls the Palestinian’s things like “vermin who need to be exterminated”, the relationship with other Arab States will be at least tenuous, and more often near absent.

This is to appeal to the Israeli voter base which leans right currently. Much like rest of the west and beyond. A right wing leaning vote in the UK and US gives you Brexit and Trump. A right wing government in Israel gives you 'levelling Gaza'. And Hamas knew this perfectly well on October 7th.

Israeli public opinion will not be as right wing as this forever so there will be a window of opportunity in the future but it might take a decade or so.

 

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3 hours ago, sparky88 said:

This is to appeal to the Israeli voter base which leans right currently. Much like rest of the west and beyond. A right wing leaning vote in the UK and US gives you Brexit and Trump. A right wing government in Israel gives you 'levelling Gaza'. And Hamas knew this perfectly well on October 7th.

Israeli public opinion will not be as right wing as this forever so there will be a window of opportunity in the future but it might take a decade or so.

 

Rather depends on one's definition of 'right wing' or 'left wing'.

For decades it's hardly been necessary to scratch the surface to find Arabs being openly referred to as vermin in the Knesset ( Parliament of Israel ).

And the underlying Israeli acceptance of the necessity of a free, undominated Palestinian state has long been decidely murky ( to say the least ), regardless of the political labels.

Edited by beefybake
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The direction of travel has been abundantly clear for many, many years now, regardless of what political stripe you would describe the government as. The only difference is the speed in which it is carried out.

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15 hours ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

Nothing links the far left and far right more than hating Jews.

You used to pretend you lived in Palo Alto and shared pictures of random women you found online pretending they were your girlfriend. It was better than this tragic nonsense

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2 hours ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

 

You’re clearly obsessed with me yet none of those statements are true.

I dunno mate, last time I mentioned it you coincidentally stopped posting on this website for 6 months which seems a bit of a slam dunk to me

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Survivor accounts from Rafah after an Israeli raid:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68355125

Shrapnel ripped through the tents. The profiled family saw the father, a farm labourer, killed in front of his wife and children. His 13 year old daughter lost an eye to shrapnel and was shot in the waist. 

An MSF doctor describes pieces of human flesh being blasted into her home from outside, including an entire limb coming in through a window.

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The Israeli economy contracted at an annualised 19.4% last quarter. Mainly down to calling up 300,000 reservists, evacuating 180,000 Israelis from border areas and restricting travel for West Bank Palestinians who work in the construction industry.

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