New cases peaked about a month ago, so the number of people with covid probably peaked about a day ago. If there are say 100,000 people with coronavirus, r=1 means each of them will on average infect 1 person. Say these people are on average half way through a four week bout, If 70,000 have already infected someone, then you'd expect 30,000 new cases from this cohort over the next two weeks. Obviously those 30,000 will also infect people so that won't be all the new cases.