That's fair, but I did say "probably", not "definitely", on the basis that Israel in all likelihood beat Moldova and the Faroes in their remaining matches. With a 2 point lead on us already and a superior goal difference by 5, that would likely then require us to pick up 9 points from our remaining 5 games on the assumption that Israel do not pick up any further points in their other 3 matches.
Then, if they do manage to pick up even a point from the other 3 matches, then we'd need 10 points from our last 5. If we assume we get 6 points from Moldova and the Faroes, that still leaves us requiring 4 from 3 matches vs Austria (A), Israel (H) and Denmark (H). I'm just not confident of that in all honesty.
Edit to add: Maybe saying we probably need to beat both Austria and Denmark was incorrect, but I think we will need to beat at least one of them while also hoping to beat Israel which has been a problem for us.