Scottish Football Reconstruction

[HibeeJibee]

My guess is it'll average more than 1-up-1-down, but not masses more.

[TheLip69]

 

I think the idea of who's strongest will be less clear-cut with better distribution of income.

I'd be amazed if all 4 lower tier seides get up in any given year, but I'd be almost as surprised if all 4 stayed down. Over say five years, I'd be pretty sure that more than five 2nd tier sides would get up - the number who'd currently manage it.

I simply don't see less movement via this proposed system.

 

The fcat is the possibility is there and this is not meant as a chance of bringing more clubs into the SPL, its there as a sweetener for the bottom four, to give them a second bite at the cherry. Come the end of the season those clubs tailed off at the foot, will have settled for tjheir fate and be preparing for the middle 8. Resting some players, trying different formations, bringing in youngsters. While the top 4 in the SFL will be going hell for leather trying to win the title and the cash that goes with it. Who do you think will be better prepared for the repercharge

For my money the fact that the possibility of no promotion or relegation exists is a scandal. When you can win a league and not get promoted, yet see a team that finsihed behind you in that league end up getting promotion. How do the players handle that? How will the directors feel? More importantly, how will the fans handle it?

Wont it cheapen the title, or will the cash prize make you feel better?

Promotion and relegation are fundamental to league football. Without it the game is nothing.

Below the top division, a league title should mean promotion. Anything else just isn't football.

[TheLip69]

 

My guess is it'll average more than 1-up-1-down, but not masses more.

 

Thats just a guess though, you cant say for sure, nobody can.

That's why I am shocked at people being so blase about it.

Oh it wont happen, it cant happen,

The truth is it SHOULDN'T happen, because the very possibility shouldn't exist.

[HibeeJibee]

Well, it's a calculated risk, and the odds look fairly slim IMO. If it does transpire that within the first X years there's a large proportion of 0-up-0-down years, then there'll be significant pressure to change it, anyway.

[Burnie_man]

He begins the article by saying the issue should be taken out of SPL and SFL hands, and adjudicated by the SFA. This seems to rather miss the point that the SFA's own review called for 10-10...?!?!

Thought that myself.

EdtheDuck on here has myth-busted this "big leagues make people challenge the OF" things before. Yet whoever wrote this article says that "by simple mathematics, you could assume that the gap between top and the rest would be halved". He could assume - wrongly.

He does get this bit right though. Basic common sense would tell you that playing the OF half the number of times increases the chances of taking a greater share of the points against them.

He also makes statements like "all the best leagues play each other two times". What he actually means, of course, is that all the big leagues of big countries play each other two times. This proves nothing.

It proves that it's a fairly sound system!

The remainder is concerned with justifying "less pressure"... in otherwords, meaningless games and some clubs seasons being finished long before the end approaches... which doesn't make sense from a competitive or financial point of view. It probably doesn't from a development point of view either - again, SFA's review called for 'best v best', and I don't think Hibs would've developed better players in recent years with less money and fewer testing encounters against teams of greater quality.

Ah the old meaningless games, of which 8x8x8 will create loads.

[Burnie_man]

Well, it's a calculated risk, and the odds look fairly slim IMO. If it does transpire that within the first X years there's a large proportion of 0-up-0-down years, then there'll be significant pressure to change it, anyway.

Scottish football cannot afford anymore risks. Go with what your customers are telling you, which is to replicate what most other countries have, larger leagues with a decent percentage of promotion/relegation slots and play-offs, playing each other twice.

We don't need half-baked ideas designed solely to retain 4 OF games a season (when The Rangers appear on the scene)

[Monkey Tennis]

   

Thats just a guess though, you cant say for sure, nobody can.

That's why I am shocked at people being so blase about it.

Oh it wont happen, it cant happen,

The truth is it SHOULDN'T happen, because the very possibility shouldn't exist.

I'm actually something of a traditionalist with my football, so I hesitate to say this, but I think this new proposal maybe requires us to re-assess slightly our understanding of promotion/relegation. I know that's easily attacked as an exercise in doublethink, but bear with me.

I accept that your fear of the two twelves simply re-assembling in the second part of the season is real. I fully accept that it can happen and even that it sometimes will, if the system gets to run for a few years. I just don't see it as the calamity that you do, and I say that as someone hugely critical of one-up one-down.

A team finishing top after 22 games probably deserve a trophy of some sort, but they'll not really be league champions in the way we're used to in a season running from August to May. Such a team will then have a great chance of getting properly up, by merely reaching the top half of a new set-up. In other words, they've earned the right for a crack at promotion with good odds, merely by doing well over a relatively short spell.

I see some clubs becoming pretty yo-yo in nature, but if the finacial cliff face isn't there, then such clubs are merely subjected to lots of exciting matches, rather than unworkable turmoil.

I also see the marooned top twelve side winding down as a relatively minor threat. Dundee's circunstances this year are not typical. Normally, even the bottom side would have a decent chance of climbing the necessary few places to escape trouble until relatively late in the short 22 game burst.

I wasn't convinced by this proposal at first, but the more I think of it, the more it grows on me.

[EdTheDuck]

I'm actually something of a traditionalist with my football, so I hesitate to say this, but I think this new proposal maybe requires us to re-assess slightly our understanding of promotion/relegation. I know that's easily attacked as an exercise in doublethink, but bear with me.

I accept that your fear of the two twelves simply re-assembling in the second part of the season is real. I fully accept that it can happen and even that it sometimes will, if the system gets to run for a few years. I just don't see it as the calamity that you do, and I say that as someone hugely critical of one-up one-down.

A team finishing top after 22 games probably deserve a trophy of some sort, but they'll not really be league champions in the way we're used to in a season running from August to May. Such a team will then have a great chance of getting properly up, by merely reaching the top half of a new set-up. In other words, they've earned the right for a crack at promotion with good odds, merely by doing well over a relatively short spell.

I see some clubs becoming pretty yo-yo in nature, but if the finacial cliff face isn't there, then such clubs are merely subjected to lots of exciting matches, rather than unworkable turmoil.

I also see the marooned top twelve side winding down as a relatively minor threat. Dundee's circunstances this year are not typical. Normally, even the bottom side would have a decent chance of climbing the necessary few places to escape trouble until relatively late in the short 22 game burst.

I wasn't convinced by this proposal at first, but the more I think of it, the more it grows on me.

I agree with the general gut feeling of your post and my major problem with the 12-12 is that it doesn't go far enough to create interest at the top of the professional tree.

If our game can't create some new wealth then our clubs will never be able to fend off League One clubs, never mind Championship clubs, and to create some new wealth is going to need something far more radical than what is proposed; it might create some interest for the middle ranked clubs it will definitely do nothing to create any new interest atthe top end of the league where it's most desperately needed.

[Monkey Tennis]

If our game can't create some new wealth then our clubs will never be able to fend off League One clubs, never mind Championship clubs, and to create some new wealth is going to need something far more radical than what is proposed;

I honestly think that ship's sailed and we should stop losing sleep over it. These clubs are bigger than nearly all of ours because they come from bigger population centres and belong to leagues that are more attractive to larger TV audiences. That's simply how it is. I think we need to make our game as open and competitive as possible, while accepting that the better players will be tempted off elsewhere. That's maybe fatalistic, but I don't think it's a situation that any model of reconstruction can even begin to address.

This isn't about generating vastly more money; it's about dishing it out more fairly, and that's why it's welcome.

[EdTheDuck]

I honestly think that ship's sailed and we should stop losing sleep over it. These clubs are bigger than nearly all of ours because they come from bigger population centres and belong to leagues that are more attractive to larger TV audiences. That's simply how it is. I think we need to make our game as open and competitive as possible, while accepting that the better players will be tempted off elsewhere. That's maybe fatalistic, but I don't think it's a situation that any model of reconstruction can even begin to address.

This isn't about generating vastly more money; it's about dishing it out more fairly, and that's why it's welcome.

Oh I agree there's no chance that any reconstruction that our clubs could envisage or agree to will make any significant difference, it would require a sea change in the format of the championship and that isn't going to happen; Scottish football is run by conservatives for conservatives and at best we'll see a marginal improvement in the standing of some clubs and at worst managed decline over a fairly lengthy period

[Burnie_man]

Has anyone, journo or otherwise, investigted into the circumstances as to why these systems never worked in other countries and were subsequently ditched? I'm thinking Austria primarily and I also believe Switzerland as well.

Has anyone connected to the SPL/SFL bothered to speak to anyone in these countries to assess the pros and cons? I think I know the answer but I may as well throw it out there.

[HibeeJibee]

Scottish football cannot afford anymore risks. Go with what your customers are telling you, which is to replicate what most other countries have, larger leagues with a decent percentage of promotion/relegation slots and play-offs, playing each other twice.

We don't need half-baked ideas designed solely to retain 4 OF games a season (when The Rangers appear on the scene)

Big leagues playing x2 isn't what 'most' other countries have, though. Certainly not in Europe... and in places like Central and South America, all manner of Apertura-Clausura and 'pool'-based formats proliferate, similarly in and USA, Australia, New Zealand, etc.

EDIT: Half-related, this caused me to recall a comment from the Supporters Direct rep on the 'Saving Scottish Football' thread...

I don't think many people would think of Scotland as a model for aspiring nations to follow.

Jamaica has half the population of Scotland and is 20 places higher than Scotland.

which was particularly ironic given that Jamaica actually restructured several years ago to use the exact model SPL currently has - of 12 teams playing x3 then splitting 6-6 and playing x1!!

[Burnie_man]

Big leagues playing x2 isn't what 'most' other countries have, though. Certainly not in Europe... and in places like Central and South America, all manner of Apertura-Clausura and 'pool'-based formats proliferate, similarly in and USA, Australia, New Zealand, etc.

So are you actually saying that out of the 53 European countries, less than half play in a straight home and away format? I think you're wrong. As for the rest of the world, if we're taking lessons on league formats from the USA and New Zealnad, we're f'cked!

EDIT: Half-related, this caused me to recall a comment from the Supporters Direct rep on the 'Saving Scottish Football' thread...

which was particularly ironic given that Jamaica actually restructured several years ago to use the exact model SPL currently has - of 12 teams playing x3 then splitting 6-6 and playing x1!!

Jamaica - really? wow..........

[HibeeJibee]

I was simply using Jamaica as an illustration, given the irony of the SD person choosing it as their example while it actually uses a format identical to us.

Only 21 of 52 European top divisions use 'straight home and away format', and that'll reduce to 20 or 19 next season. (EDIT: Of the other 32 about 1/3 use 3x playing and 2/3 use 4x playing... 1/4 of the 52 use 'splits').

[EdTheDuck]

So are you actually saying that out of the 53 European countries, less than half play in a straight home and away format? I think you're wrong.

No, he's right, you're wrong.

20 out of 53 UEFA nations have straightforward home & away double round robin championships; 31 have either X3 or X4 playing and 15 of those have a split of some description; San Marino have a bizarre two pool arrangement with a double elimination playoff series designed to bring on a migraine while Lichtenstein don't have a league of any description.

[HibeeJibee]

I'd actually posted the breakdown elsewhere recently:

http://www.pieandbovril.com/forum/index.php/topic/194290-12-12-18-league/?p=7057427

Some converts to 3x/4x playing and/or splits within the last few years include Croatia, Israel, Greece, Wales, and several ex-Soviet nations.

EDIT: Only leagues that have gone the other way in the last decade are Turkey (put a split onto their 18 last season but ditched it, you wonder if 44-game season was perhaps the issue) and Kazakhstan.

Albania, Croatia, Israel all expanded but quickly moved back.

So in European terms, the old-fashioned model of 2x playing in big leagues certainly isn't in the majority, plus the trend is away from it.

[EdTheDuck]

I'd actually posted the breakdown elsewhere recently:

http://www.pieandbovril.com/forum/index.php/topic/194290-12-12-18-league/?p=7057427

Some converts to 3x/4x playing and/or splits within the last few years include Croatia, Israel, Greece, Wales, and several ex-Soviet nations.

EDIT: Only leagues that have gone the other way in the last decade are Turkey (put a split onto their 18 last season but ditched it, you wonder if 44-game season was perhaps the issue) and Kazakhstan.

Albania, Croatia, Israel all expanded but quickly moved back.

So in European terms, the old-fashioned model of 2x playing in big leagues certainly isn't in the majority, plus the trend is away from it.

Kazakhstan are to be going back to a 12 splitting 6-6 this year but watch this space the problems they have with league restructures is the stuff of legends

[HibeeJibee]

Interesting.

That model of 12-12 splitting 6-6 for 32 games seems to be really catching on in the ex-USSR, quite a few nations do it now with others having dabbled. My guess is it provides higher quality levels, more meaningful games, derbies etc. while playing a similar number of games to their older models (16/18 playing 30/34).

[Nowhereman]

So the money is bribery for taking away the automatic promotion place?

Sounds about right, it's not about the glory anymore it's about the balance sheet.

You could equally well say that there will be four automatic promotion places

[Burnie_man]

I was simply using Jamaica as an illustration, given the irony of the SD person choosing it as their example while it actually uses a format identical to us.

Only 21 of 52 European top divisions use 'straight home and away format', and that'll reduce to 20 or 19 next season. (EDIT: Of the other 32 about 1/3 use 3x playing and 2/3 use 4x playing... 1/4 of the 52 use 'splits').

How many nations have 12 or less in their top division (your link isn't clear), and out of that, how many of those nations make a regular impact on the European front and Internationally?