Scottish Football Reconstruction

[Burnie_man]

Interesting.

That model of 12-12 splitting 6-6 for 32 games seems to be really catching on in the ex-USSR, quite a few nations do it now with others having dabbled. My guess is it provides higher quality levels, more meaningful games, derbies etc. while playing a similar number of games to their older models (16/18 playing 30/34).

My guess would be that it increases the percentage of income going to those clubs in the top division, and cutting it to those outwith, just like the SPL. That is the prime mover.

[HibeeJibee]

How many nations have 12 or less in their top division (your link isn't clear), and out of that, how many of those nations make a regular impact on the European front and Internationally?

27 of 52 have 12 or less (next season it'll be 29 seemingly, with Albania and Kazakhstan joining the club).

It include the likes of Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Eire, Latvia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland who have all appeared in World Cups/Euros in recent years, while Azerbaijan, Belarus and Moldova have got clubs into CL &/or EL groups recently.

A few countries use 14 with 4x playing, e.g. Cyprus and Israel, presumably Bulgaria next season. Belgium have a convoluted split system allowing 4x playing with 16.

[Burnie_man]

27 of 52 have 12 or less (next season it'll be 29 seemingly, with Albania and Kazakhstan joining the club).

It include the likes of Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Eire, Latvia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland who have all appeared in World Cups/Euros in recent years, while Azerbaijan, Belarus and Moldova have got clubs into CL &/or EL groups recently.

A few countries use 14 with 4x playing, e.g. Cyprus and Israel, presumably Bulgaria next season. Belgium have a convoluted split system allowing 4x playing with 16.

OK cheers, not many countries to aspire to then in a European club sense or indeed Internationally (Croatia and Denmark apart).

I guess this is all a sign of increased TV/sponsorship revenue across Europe, and a move by smaller nations to ring fence that money amongst its bigger clubs by cutting league sizes. Sounds vaguely familiar.

I still do not have a clear idea as to why Austria and Switzerland dropped the system proposed by the SPL, which leads me to assume it was purely because it didn't work.

[EdTheDuck]

27 of 52 have 12 or less (next season it'll be 29 seemingly, with Albania and Kazakhstan joining the club).

It include the likes of Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Eire, Latvia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland who have all appeared in World Cups/Euros in recent years, while Azerbaijan, Belarus and Moldova have got clubs into CL &/or EL groups recently.

A few countries use 14 with 4x playing, e.g. Cyprus and Israel, presumably Bulgaria next season. Belgium have a convoluted split system allowing 4x playing with 16.

Give it up HJ, this tedious pillock is going to narrow the spotlight until he can find a question that the answer to is "16 or 18" and then he will jump out of the bath screaming Eureka! That proves we need a bigger league!

[Burnie_man]

Give it up HJ, this tedious pillock is going to narrow the spotlight until he can find a question that the answer to is "16 or 18" and then he will jump out of the bath screaming Eureka! That proves we need a bigger league!

That's not very nice. I'm more than inclined to think the tedious pillock is the guy who chucks around abuse, so jog on, we're trying to have a serious debate.

[Burnie_man]

Not exactly a glowing review of the Austria experiment;

http://sport.stv.tv/football/clubs/aberdeen/201526-spl-reconstruction-plans-identical-to-really-boring-austrian-experiment/

"Of the eight clubs who finished in the top group of the last ever
season of the three-tier, 24 team Austrian league, four formed phoenix
clubs and one, Admira Wacker, lost their license in 2007/08 and were
plunged down the divisions, although have since returned.

Of the eight who contested the play-off group, four went out of
business, while three others had serious financial trouble which
threatened their existence. The majority of the bottom eight survived,
today having found their level in regional leagues."

Hardly inspiring stuff, and many SPL/SFL clubs are already in a precarious financial state, is it really worth the risk to mount this highly dubious expiriment that the fans don't want?

Interesting that the Austrians went back to a top division of 10 to ring fence the cash and guarantee more matches against their own "big two", sadly, I think that is where Scottish football is ultimately headed.

[HibeeJibee]

OK cheers, not many countries to aspire to then in a European club sense or indeed Internationally (Croatia and Denmark apart).

I guess this is all a sign of increased TV/sponsorship revenue across Europe, and a move by smaller nations to ring fence that money amongst its bigger clubs by cutting league sizes. Sounds vaguely familiar.

I think that largely depends on what you regard as 'success', and how it relates to the size of the nation involved (not just population but also financial income and participation levels).

I don't see any European countries with which we compare under those sorts of parameters, who are also using a large league playing 2x. In actual fact, virtually all the countries in the bottom 2/3 of population have small leagues which almost invariably equates to 3x or 4x playing. If you're coming at this from the perspective of international comparison, it points to a smaller league with 4x playing, and probably a split.

A couple of such countries (including Croatia and Israel) have gone from 12 up to 16, but all have got their fingers burnt and rapidly reduced back to a smaller division with 3x or 4x playing. Very few middling/small countries are 'success stories' with big leagues and 2x playing. Infact, of countries with populations under 10M, I'd say only Norway (but their clubs do little). Hungary aren't, ditto Bosnia, Serbia, Bulgaria.

Btw - I too have some reservations over 12-12 > 8-8-8, but I feel it's a long way from saying that to favouring 16/18/20 with 2x playing.

[Monkey Tennis]

Not exactly a glowing review of the Austria experiment;

http://sport.stv.tv/football/clubs/aberdeen/201526-spl-reconstruction-plans-identical-to-really-boring-austrian-experiment/

"Of the eight clubs who finished in the top group of the last ever

season of the three-tier, 24 team Austrian league, four formed phoenix

clubs and one, Admira Wacker, lost their license in 2007/08 and were

plunged down the divisions, although have since returned.

Of the eight who contested the play-off group, four went out of

business, while three others had serious financial trouble which

threatened their existence. The majority of the bottom eight survived,

today having found their level in regional leagues."

Hardly inspiring stuff, and many SPL/SFL clubs are already in a precarious financial state, is it really worth the risk to mount this highly dubious expiriment that the fans don't want?

Interesting that the Austrians went back to a top division of 10 to ring fence the cash and guarantee more matches against their own "big two", sadly, I think that is where Scottish football is ultimately headed.

It's a Hell of a leap to put this finacial turmoil down to the system. Far likelier I'd imagine that clubs spent beyond their means and got into trouble. The system didn't provide a cure, but then, why would it?

Nobody's suggesting that this will generate fortunes - just that it has attractive features, which place it ahead of what we currently endure. You'd really struggle to say the SPL has been a succes by your criteria, if we get to consider Motherwell, Livingston, Dundee and Rangers.

[Burnie_man]

It's a Hell of a leap to put this finacial turmoil down to the system. Far likelier I'd imagine that clubs spent beyond their means and got into trouble. The system didn't provide a cure, but then, why would it?

Well, if the league system we are potentially moving to does not help provide a cure, then it doesn't look good for a lot of clubs does it?

Nobody's suggesting that this will generate fortunes - just that it has attractive features, which place it ahead of what we currently endure. You'd really struggle to say the SPL has been a succes by your criteria, if we get to consider Motherwell, Livingston, Dundee and Rangers.

Very many fans - a vast majority it appears - disagree that it has attractive features. The only attractive features come off the pitch with one league body etc, which can still happen reagrdless of restructure.

I'd venture to suggest that the current system with more promotion/relegation spots would get the vote of many ahead of the shambles proposed.

[HibeeJibee]

It's a Hell of a leap to put this finacial turmoil down to the system. Far likelier I'd imagine that clubs spent beyond their means and got into trouble. The system didn't provide a cure, but then, why would it?

I'd agree. And the way it's worded, it's almost saying that moving from 12 to 10 was the catalyst? It implies the financial catastrophe came post-12-12.

Arguably the only place in recent times where expansion has happened and looks likely to endure is in Sweden and Norway. But these are countries who were using 14 playing x2 for 26 games, and went to 16 playing x2 for 30 games, as better pitches and so on had made a longer playing season possible.

Crowds did fall... this would be expected with 2 smaller clubs added and a larger midtable. In Norway the 4 years of 16 have averaged 8019 while the last 4 years of 14 averaged 9720 and in Sweden the corresponding 5 years averaged 7354 and 9660. (Admittedly the global recession will have exacerbated this fall). But presumably this was happily outweighed by each club having a 16% increase in home games - plus the total number of games growing from 182 to 240 (all games are televised), up almost 25%. But elsewhere in Scandanavia, Finland + Denmark have gone from bigger leagues to 12 playing x3.

[TheLip69]

 

You could equally well say that there will be four automatic promotion places

 

Don't be stupid.

[HibeeJibee]

You're taking the pessimistic view that there's a real danger of 0-up-0-down / but others are taking the optimistic view that there's a real opportuntiy for 4-up-4-down. Ultimately experience is only going to prove which is right (or closer to the truth), and it wouldn't surprise me at all if we see neither a 0 or 4 in any season.

As I've related previously, none of Austria/Georgia/Switzerland averaged less than 1 or more than 2.

History tells us there's a good chance it won't last long anyway, though arguably we thought that of 12 > 6-6 which has proven remarkably enduring...

[TheHoodedClaw]

So the two possibilities are , the present dross continued, or some Austrian idea that even they threw in the bin. Let's all chew our fists.

[EdTheDuck]

So the two possibilities are , the present dross continued, or some Austrian idea that even they threw in the bin. Let's all chew our fists.

Give the man a cigar.

Careful though, chances are it's one of them tricky exploding cigars...

[Monkey Tennis]

So the two possibilities are , the present dross continued, or some Austrian idea that even they threw in the bin. Let's all chew our fists.

I don't know much about the Austrian version, but in the guise designed for us, it involves the dissolution of the SPL cartel, the end of prohibitive and downright stupid ground criterea, a re-distribution of wealth, a big chance of increased movement between divisions, and a (admittedly vague) commitment to the notion of a pyramid.

Even if 12-12-18 turns out to be disastrous - and I don't think it will - it's worth it for the above, given that one umbrella body can thereafter modify things with relative ease.

[Nowhereman]

You could equally well say that there will be four automatic promotion places

Don't be stupid.

Why is it stupid. If you end up in the top four you are automatically promoted. Therefore four automatic promotion places

[Burnie_man]

I don't know much about the Austrian version, but in the guise designed for us, it involves the dissolution of the SPL cartel, the end of prohibitive and downright stupid ground criterea, a re-distribution of wealth, a big chance of increased movement between divisions, and a (admittedly vague) commitment to the notion of a pyramid.

All of which are great, and all of which can happen without the need to move to an embarrassing league system that even the Austrians ditched. The Pyramid will happen regardless and clubs can already experiment with terracing if they wish.

Even if 12-12-18 turns out to be disastrous - and I don't think it will - it's worth it for the above, given that one umbrella body can thereafter modify things with relative ease.

If 12-12-18 proves to be disasterous (and I think it will), the next re-organisation could be too late for some clubs.

[Monkey Tennis]

All of which are great, and all of which can happen without the need to move to an embarrassing league system that even the Austrians ditched. The Pyramid will happen regardless and clubs can already experiment with terracing if they wish.

If 12-12-18 proves to be disasterous (and I think it will), the next re-organisation could be too late for some clubs.

Which clubs, either specifically or in terms of type, would you see the proposed system proving fatal for, and why?

[TheLip69]

 

Why is it stupid. If you end up in the top four you are automatically promoted. Therefore four automatic promotion places

 

Except you dont get automatically promoted if you end up in the top four, you go into a play off with the bottom four from the SPL with the distinct possibility that you may not get promoted at all. Jesus, not just stupid, but thick as well.

[TheLip69]

 

You're taking the pessimistic view that there's a real danger of 0-up-0-down / but others are taking the optimistic view that there's a real opportuntiy for 4-up-4-down. Ultimately experience is only going to prove which is right (or closer to the truth), and it wouldn't surprise me at all if we see neither a 0 or 4 in any season.

As I've related previously, none of Austria/Georgia/Switzerland averaged less than 1 or more than 2.

History tells us there's a good chance it won't last long anyway, though arguably we thought that of 12 > 6-6 which has proven remarkably enduring...

 

No, I am taking the view that 0/0 is a distinct possibility and one that should not exist, any league that includes that possibility is a joke.

I am not normally pessimistic, I prefer to think of myself as a realist, although I do cringe at some of the optimistic hopes for this 12-12-18, which i have no problem with, it's 8-8-8 that rattles my cage.

League football is all about promotion and relegation, as far as I am concerned this middle 8 is just another barrier, like 10k all seated stadia, and undersoil heating, put in place to keep the hoi polloi away from the SPL.

I dont believe you can compare anything that happens anywhere else in Europe with what may happen in Scotland.