Bitcoin/cryptocurrency thread

[DiegoDiego]

That is just utter nonsense.  How do you divert gas that would be flared to generate electricity?  Flaring happens due to either excessive pressure being vented or the burning of waste gasses that cannot easily be transported or processed.

You might want to do the simplest of Google searches before calling something utter nonsense and coming across as a tit.

[gaz5]

Let me firstly apologise for diving in when you are all arguing, but just quickly, what the f**k is happening to QNT?

Thanks

In what context?

Doesn't look any different to the rest of the market (or traditionals) at the minute?

[Bairnardo]

In what context?

Doesn't look any different to the rest of the market (or traditionals) at the minute?

Well as I know hee haw, I am simply looking for some copium here that it's on its arse just because the market is.....

Which tbf was my assumption, but lets not underestimate how little I know here

[welshbairn]

 

Edited May 12, 2022 by welshbairn

[gaz5]

Well as I know hee haw, I am simply looking for some copium here that it's on its arse just because the market is.....

Which tbf was my assumption, but lets not underestimate how little I know here

Hehe, well in that case, yes, it's not QNT specific.

I closed my short overnight as BTC hit my target. I'm looking for a bounce now and I have an area of interest around 38k where I plan to enter the next short. Initial target for that around here, where I'll take a chunk out and trail the rest.

My current target for BTC is in the 19-22k range, but I don't mind if it doesn't get there as it doesn't affect my entries if it doesn't.

So, long and short, a bit of a retrace seems more likely in the short term, but I'm all out and back in cash waiting for the next opportunity, be that up or down.

[Satoshi]

4 hours ago, gaz5 said:

I see you're still going with this narrative and making up whatever you want about it to try and make it sound more difficult than it is.

You don't have to be a professional anything or a trader to understand you don't buy dips in a downtrend. That's basic common sense.

People who listened to your advice are currently down 10% in 2 days and counting.

Meanwhile my cash that you couldn't understand sitting in is still worth the same as it was 2 days ago.

So yes, you've definitely missed something. Even if you want to HODL you still need to know how to DCA properly and protect your capital adequately.

"In the history of Crypto hodlers beat traders".

Nope, more conjecture I'm afraid. Some hodlers will beat some traders. Some traders will beat some hodlers. But we're not talking about trading, were talking about having a basic understanding of markets.

 

Well, first of all, just because something is obvious to you doesn't mean it's obvious to everyone.

Especially when that something is using technical analysis to beat the market. Do you really think lots of people can do this? Despite the abundant evidence to the contrary? (As well as the logical fallacy of it?)

Do you apply the same methdology to your stock market investing?

And yes, I'm quite confidente that on the whole hodlers will beat traders, given that most traders don't know what the hell they are doing (and hodling is much easier / simpler / requires virtually no knowledge). Or do you really think that amateur traders are out there beating the stock market / crypto market / foreign currency market?

And a basic understanding of markets? It's no surprise that pretty much everyone in FIRE (read the other thread!) recommends buying low cost ETF funds and sitting on them, not trying to time the market with technical analysis. You must think they are lacking in basic financial literacy.

Also, I put in the grand total of 3% of my cash reserve, can't say I'm particularly bothered that it has dropped 10% as I have no intention of selling it anyway and I'm confident it will be much higher than it is currently. And that's all that really matters to long term investors, DCA appropriately and wait it out. If my entire crypto portfolio (and entire stock portfolio for that matter) went to zero my day to day life would be totally unaffected. Why worry about it? Why try and beat the market?

It may seem like I'm having a go, but I'm really not. There's no doubt that you know far more about trading than me. And for all I know technical analysis is working brilliantly for you, I suspect you're more likely to post your successes rather than your failures, but c'est la vie. If it works go for it. For most investors, whether in crypto or the stock market, buying after a big dip and hodling (over years) is a perfectly acceptable strategy. If your response is that people shouldn't do this, and should instead time the market through technical analysis is a bit pig headed to be honest. Not everyone is as smart or knowledge as you, or has the time (or inclination) to do so.

I maintain that it was, and is a good time to buy crypto as a long term investment. I have never bought for short term trading purposes so can't comment on that.

My advice is caveated with I don't really know, and don't pretend to know, and that my portfolio has shrunk a fair bit recently. Overall, I'm still way out in front so it's not too bad I gues.

On 11/05/2022 at 14:37, gaz5 said:

Buying dips in an uptrend, as I said, is a decent DCA strategy. That's why it worked for you over the last two years of massive uptrend.

Buying dips in a downtrend is not. It's daft. Especially if you're worried about the value of your cash as you claim to be.

 

 

I guess what I'm struggling with, what made November 2021 a trend reversal rather than a dip in an uptrend?

[vikingTON]

49 minutes ago, gaz5 said:

To claim there's no such thing as an uptrend or a downtrend because you personally don't know the difference is like claiming the earth is flat because that's what it looks like out your window.
 

I'm not saying that they don't exist. I'm stating that the definitions are meaningless and the transition from one state to another cannot be reliably forecasted. If it could, then the market price would be stable in the first place. 

You are punting on future outcomes based on current and near past trends. It's the horse racing form book model, only with a lorryload of bogus 'theories' and 'rules' to justify the same speculative effort. 

Edited May 12, 2022 by vikingTON

[gaz5]

9 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

Well, first of all, just because something is obvious to you doesn't mean it's obvious to everyone.

Especially when that something is using technical analysis to beat the market. Do you really think lots of people can do this? Despite the abundant evidence to the contrary? (As well as the logical fallacy of it?)

Do you apply the same methdology to your stock market investing?

And yes, I'm quite confidente that on the whole hodlers will beat traders, given that most traders don't know what the hell they are doing (and hodling is much easier / simpler / requires virtually no knowledge). Or do you really think that amateur traders are out there beating the stock market / crypto market / foreign currency market?

And a basic understanding of markets? It's no surprise that pretty much everyone in FIRE (read the other thread!) recommends buying low cost ETF funds and sitting on them, not trying to time the market with technical analysis. You must think they are lacking in basic financial literacy.

Also, I put in the grand total of 3% of my cash reserve, can't say I'm particularly bothered that it has dropped 10% as I have no intention of selling it anyway and I'm confident it will be much higher than it is currently. And that's all that really matters to long term investors, DCA appropriately and wait it out. If my entire crypto portfolio (and entire stock portfolio for that matter) went to zero my day to day life would be totally unaffected. Why worry about it? Why try and beat the market?

It may seem like I'm having a go, but I'm really not. There's no doubt that you know far more about trading than me. And for all I know technical analysis is working brilliantly for you, I suspect you're more likely to post your successes rather than your failures, but c'est la vie. If it works go for it. For most investors, whether in crypto or the stock market, buying after a big dip and hodling (over years) is a perfectly acceptable strategy. If your response is that people shouldn't do this, and should instead time the market through technical analysis is a bit pig headed to be honest. Not everyone is as smart or knowledge as you, or has the time (or inclination) to do so.

I maintain that it was, and is a good time to buy crypto as a long term investment. I have never bought for short term trading purposes so can't comment on that.

My advice is caveated with I don't really know, and don't pretend to know, and that my portfolio has shrunk a fair bit recently. Overall, I'm still way out in front so it's not too bad I gues.

I guess what I'm struggling with, what made November 2021 a trend reversal rather than a dip in an uptrend?

You're not listening, so let me say this, again, very, very simply:

• I. Am. Not. Advising. You. Or. Anyone. Else. To. Trade. Or. To. Try. To. Time. The. Market. As. A. Trader
• Trading and DCA are two entirely different strategies (as I've said multiple times).
• What I am trying to convey to you is that there's an efficient way to do DCA long term positions to increase return without having to be a "Trader" and there's an inefficient way to do it (DCA every dip)
• This requires next to no TA ability and next to no time spent looking at charts

In terms of your comment re: more likely to post successes. I've already said I'm only right in my trading around 56% of the time. Because I understand this is a game of probabilities and not certainties. My job is to make it OK to be wrong. TA is a tiny fraction of what is required for that, the majority of it is boring old maths. My single most important document is my Risk Management plan, which protects my capital. That's my fundamental goal. I'm not a "Trader", I'm a "Risk Manager". The reason 56% sees me profitable over time is that my losses are fixed to a maximum of 3% of my account in any position and my wins are a minimum of 6% of my account in any position. So my 56% wins bring in twice as much (minimum) as my 44% losses. That's the maths, backtested over years of data and with rules to follow to make it consistent, not arbitrary.

But I digress and will repeat again: I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT TRADING OR SUGGESTING ANYONE SHOULD DO THAT.

It suits me because I enjoy it. I like stats and patterns and maths because I'm a boring old cnut and I enjoy spending about 40 (or more) hours a week on it (across all markets BTW, not just Crypto).

So, onto the second part of your post and the question: "I guess what I'm struggling with, what made November 2021 a trend reversal rather than a dip in an uptrend?"

The attached image is a 5 Day chart, so Macro level (not trading). Yellow line is the major trend, based on Dow Theory (Higher High, Higher Low series is an uptrend, Lower Low, Lower High series is a downtrend). Reversals are signalled by ABC movements where, in an uptrend, a new low is set below the previous low (A), a new high is set below the previous high (B) and the latest "lower Low" (A) is broken by price closure (C).

This is a sell signal as it more often than not confirms trend reversal. Its a game of probabilities.

In November, as with May, that's exactly the pattern we saw. Higher High, Lower Low, Lower High, Lower Low breaker.

That's why November wasn't a "Buy the Dip" opportunity. November was a "Sell and wait" Signal.

And I repeat, this is NOT trading. Trading is done on far smaller timescales wither far more entries and exits, not to mention I flipped short (as I only trade in the direction of the trend) for my swing positions which HODLERS don't do, they "Invest" one way.

This doesn't require any in depth or repeated technical analysis. This is a 5D chart. You can look once a week, or once a month, or whatever.

• Is it a higher high and a higher low? Yup, Uptrend, DCA in on the dip.
• Has the previous low been broken? If so dont buy the dip but hold for now and wait: patience
• Has there been a lower high and the new low been closed below? If so, dont buy the dip, sell the position and wait.

*This is a BTC chart, because we're talking BTC, but this is EXACTLY the same on any instrument. Equities, ForEx, Crypto, Commodities. Whatever. Its just market structure.

Here's the thing: "Buy the Dip", "Diamond Hands", "HODL (Hold on for dear life)" - Who do you think invented those narratives?

See in those two structure breaks in May and November? Who do you think were selling their positions there and who do you think they were selling them to? Think about it for a second. Because your first instinct is correct. If you are a large player in a market you need people to sell to when you want to close your positions, otherwise you cant get out when you see the trend change coming. Convincing retail to "Buy the dip and HODL" is like the greatest trick the devil ever played in this zero sums game. 

[topcat(The most tip top)]

1 hour ago, strichener said:

That is just utter nonsense.  How do you divert gas that would be flared to generate electricity?  Flaring happens due to either excessive pressure being vented or the burning of waste gasses that cannot easily be transported or processed.

It turns out that there's an undigested seed of truth in the middle of that heap of bullshit

Exxon are apparently involved in a pilot project that captures spare gas and burns it in generators to drive a bitcoin mine

https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/exxon-bitcoin-mining-gas-flaring#:~:text=According to Bloomberg%2C Exxon has,and was expanded last July.

Although it is just a pilot and Exxon haven't actually confirmed that it exists

 

[gaz5]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

I'm not saying that they don't exist. I'm stating that the definitions are meaningless and the transition from one state to another cannot be reliably forecasted. If it could, then the market price would be stable in the first place. 

You are punting on future outcomes based on current and near past trends. It's the horse racing form book model, only with a lorryload of bogus 'theories' and 'rules' to justify the same speculative effort. 

As I've said previously, you not having an understanding of how it works doesn't mean it doesn't work. Its nothing even close to being like horse racing.

To be quite frank, your view on something, based purely on not understanding it, is akin to the trepanning rituals of the dark ages when they didn't understand mental illness. Can you not even concede that maybe you just haven't spent the time to figure it all out and that, actually, others might have?

Anyway, the transition from one state to another doesn't need to be reliably forecast, it just needs to be accurate enough for your R:R profile for the strategy to make money.

As I said twice now, I am right 56% ish of the time. That means I'm wrong 44% ish of the time. But (and this is the thing that people who don't understand TA struggle with) I DONT NEED it to be right every time. I don't even need it to be right half of the time. I only need to know that when it is, it will move within a certain range in the direction in which I need it to.

Its just maths. 3% losses, 6% wins, work out yourself the return on that over 100 trades at a 56% win rate. Work it out for a 40% win rate (its still profitable).

[topcat(The most tip top)]

1 minute ago, gaz5 said:

As I've said previously, you not having an understanding of how it works doesn't mean it doesn't work. Its nothing even close to being like horse racing.

To be quite frank, your view on something, based purely on not understanding it, is akin to the trepanning rituals of the dark ages when they didn't understand mental illness. Can you not even concede that maybe you just haven't spent the time to figure it all out and that, actually, others might have?

Anyway, the transition from one state to another doesn't need to be reliably forecast, it just needs to be accurate enough for your R:R profile for the strategy to make money.

As I said twice now, I am right 56% ish of the time. That means I'm wrong 44% ish of the time. But (and this is the thing that people who don't understand TA struggle with) I DONT NEED it to be right every time. I don't even need it to be right half of the time. I only need to know that when it is, it will move within a certain range in the direction in which I need it to.

Its just maths. 3% losses, 6% wins, work out yourself the return on that over 100 trades at a 56% win rate. Work it out for a 40% win rate (its still profitable).

So it is like Horse Racing then?

[gaz5]

1 minute ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

So it is like Horse Racing then?

If it makes you feel better to think of it that way, you go right on ahead.

I mean, its not, but if it makes you happy, then go for it. I have no objections.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

6 minutes ago, gaz5 said:

If it makes you feel better to think of it that way, you go right on ahead.

I mean, its not, but if it makes you happy, then go for it. I have no objections.

Just because you don't understand horse racing there's no need to get snappy!

I'm the one trying to help you understand things

Edited May 12, 2022 by topcat(The most tip top)

[DiegoDiego]

It turns out that there's an undigested seed of truth in the middle of that heap of bullshit

Exxon are apparently involved in a pilot project that captures spare gas and burns it in generators to drive a bitcoin mine

https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/exxon-bitcoin-mining-gas-flaring#:~:text=According to Bloomberg%2C Exxon has,and was expanded last July.

Although it is just a pilot and Exxon haven't actually confirmed that it exists
 

Heap of bullshit? You'll need to expand on that for me, I'm afraid.

Here's a photo of one in Montana.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

19 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Heap of bullshit? You'll need to expand on that for me, I'm afraid.

Join the queue

I'm going to deal with one confused person at a time

[Suspect Device]

The only thing I'm confused about is why anyone would put their life savings in one asset. One particularly volatile asset.

So many stories I'm reading (and not quite believing) about people who have lost everything on the Terra (Luna) thing. Absolutely crazy to go all out on one thing.

Has no-one heard about diversification?

 

[SuperSaints1877]

1 minute ago, Suspect Device said:

The only thing I'm confused about is why anyone would put their life savings in one asset. One particularly volatile asset.

So many stories I'm reading (and not quite believing) about people who have lost everything on the Terra (Luna) thing. Absolutely crazy to go all out on one thing.

Has no-one heard about diversification?

 

It’s a combination of greed and stupidity. The human race is awash with it.

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

The only thing I'm confused about is why anyone would put their life savings in one asset. One particularly volatile asset.

So many stories I'm reading (and not quite believing) about people who have lost everything on the Terra (Luna) thing. Absolutely crazy to go all out on one thing.

Has no-one heard about diversification?

 

It'll be people who are furious about not being rich because they didn't buy shares in Microsoft when they were still in a garage, or early Bitcoin. It isn't helped by "stories" of people throwing out hard drives with hundreds of millions worth of bitcoin on them, gets them thinking they aren't rich because they're stupid and they really must go all in early on the next new thing.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It'll be people who are furious about not being rich because they didn't buy shares in Microsoft when they were still in a garage, or early Bitcoin. It isn't helped by "stories" of people throwing out hard drives with hundreds of millions worth of bitcoin on them, gets them thinking they aren't rich because they're stupid and they really must go all in early on the next new thing.

Whilst forgetting that for every Microsoft there are dozens of Palms.

[gaz5]

1 hour ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

Just because you don't understand horse racing there's no need to get snappy!

I'm the one trying to help you understand things

You are correct, I know nothing about horse racing.

I'm more than happy to admit that, unlike some others may be about other things