Bitcoin/cryptocurrency thread

[welshbairn]

Luna man.

Quote

“I understand the last 72 hours have been extremely tough on all of you - know that I am resolved to work with every one of you to weather this crisis, and we will build our way out of this,” he wrote.

“The Terra ecosystem is one of the most vibrant in the crypto industry, with hundreds of passionate teams building category defining applications within... Terra’s return to form will be a sight to behold.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/terra-luna-ust-crypto-price-crash-b2076655.html

[Albus Bulbasaur]

2 hours ago, Aufc said:

Why can’t there be some middle ground on crypto. Yes it is higher risk. Yes it is volatile. As with most investments, there is always risks. I don’t understand why people who haven’t invested in crypto are so determined for it to fail. Bizarre behaviour

This 100%.

I'm nowhere near an expert and put in moderate sums but I've casually managed to make good returns just from literally following shitposts on crypto Twitter since 2018. I'm well aware how much of it is like the Wild West and I'd always implore people getting involved to manage their risks accordingly. Its no secret that there's a huge amount of scams, influencer nonsense, pump and dumps and straight up money laundering. I've never bothered with NFTs and think they're overall pretty shite but the overreaction from some people always amuses me. 

Although something about crypto that should scare people away that doesn't amuse me is that in 2019 I owned over 100,000 matic tokens, held them for 2 years as the charts went sideways with no movement, sold for near enough the same I had entered at and then 1 year later the price went up to £2... I try not to think about it too much!

[Albus Bulbasaur]

2 hours ago, Mr. Alli said:

Didn't that KSI lose a fortune on they bored ape NFT's? 

He didn't lose on that but he sold one very early on and it later sold for a lot of money. He's got enough money he leverages quite a lot (essentially gambling on it going up or down) and lost about £5M. I'd imagine he's made a decent amount too and has been involved in what I would call suspect projects. 

He's pretty much a good market indicator. If he says it's going up put your savings that it's going down. 

[DiegoDiego]

Luna man.

Thought you would have gone for Luna-tic.

[Satoshi]

4 hours ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

This 100%.

I'm nowhere near an expert and put in moderate sums but I've casually managed to make good returns just from literally following shitposts on crypto Twitter since 2018. I'm well aware how much of it is like the Wild West and I'd always implore people getting involved to manage their risks accordingly. Its no secret that there's a huge amount of scams, influencer nonsense, pump and dumps and straight up money laundering. I've never bothered with NFTs and think they're overall pretty shite but the overreaction from some people always amuses me. 

Although something about crypto that should scare people away that doesn't amuse me is that in 2019 I owned over 100,000 matic tokens, held them for 2 years as the charts went sideways with no movement, sold for near enough the same I had entered at and then 1 year later the price went up to £2... I try not to think about it too much!

Well indeed, a lot of what has been posted in the last few pages has been trying to beat the market through technical analysis.

Which is fine, it's like your careers advisor recommending you become a professional poker player. For those with skill, knowledge and plenty of hard work it's potentially a good path to go down. Most people who do it don't have all three, and even some that do still lose out massively (whether shares or crypto).

It certainly isn't an approach a novice should take. If you don't need the money and have plenty of time hodling is a perfectly good strategy, occasionally taking out profit when you so desire.

In the history of crypto, hodlers beat traders for me. It remains an excellent time to buy.

And surely the first major dip in a bull market is a good time to buy as the overall trend is still upwards? So buying November would be better than buying now? Or I have missed the point of that.

Maybe, I'm happy to hodl either way given I view it as a long term investment, it's the exchanges who benefit most from frequent traders (and the tiny amount who eat the amateurs).

 

[welshbairn]

Edited May 12, 2022 by welshbairn

[Zetterlund]

I've never paid any attention to Do Kwon or Luna but he comes across as a bit of a dick. I saw another tweet where he bet someone $200 million that it would never go below $10 again. Here we are under 30 cents. It's pretty crazy that a vulnerability like that can be identified but not dealt with. 

Crypto has many legit and innovative uses but the 'DeFi' space is a minefield. Anchor Protocol was seen as one of the lowest risk crypto investments but it still offered 20% yield. Nothing offering that return can be free of risk.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Why can’t there be some middle ground on crypto. Yes it is higher risk. Yes it is volatile. As with most investments, there is always risks. I don’t understand why people who haven’t invested in crypto are so determined for it to fail. Bizarre behaviour

Possibly the cult-like posting of those who see zero problems of crypto. Personally I've no issue with it but some people need to stop pushing the risk-free nonsense.

That bring said, it's clear thaf H_B wants them to fail - but that's more to do with his views on capitalism in general.

[gaz5]

Well indeed, a lot of what has been posted in the last few pages has been trying to beat the market through technical analysis.
Which is fine, it's like your careers advisor recommending you become a professional poker player. For those with skill, knowledge and plenty of hard work it's potentially a good path to go down. Most people who do it don't have all three, and even some that do still lose out massively (whether shares or crypto).
It certainly isn't an approach a novice should take. If you don't need the money and have plenty of time hodling is a perfectly good strategy, occasionally taking out profit when you so desire.
In the history of crypto, hodlers beat traders for me. It remains an excellent time to buy.
And surely the first major dip in a bull market is a good time to buy as the overall trend is still upwards? So buying November would be better than buying now? Or I have missed the point of that.
Maybe, I'm happy to hodl either way given I view it as a long term investment, it's the exchanges who benefit most from frequent traders (and the tiny amount who eat the amateurs).
 

I see you're still going with this narrative and making up whatever you want about it to try and make it sound more difficult than it is.

You don't have to be a professional anything or a trader to understand you don't buy dips in a downtrend. That's basic common sense.

People who listened to your advice are currently down 10% in 2 days and counting.

Meanwhile my cash that you couldn't understand sitting in is still worth the same as it was 2 days ago.

So yes, you've definitely missed something. Even if you want to HODL you still need to know how to DCA properly and protect your capital adequately.

"In the history of Crypto hodlers beat traders".

Nope, more conjecture I'm afraid. Some hodlers will beat some traders. Some traders will beat some hodlers. But we're not talking about trading, were talking about having a basic understanding of markets.

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, gaz5 said:

I see you're still going with this narrative and making up whatever you want about it to try and make it sound more difficult than it is.

You don't have to be a professional anything or a trader to understand you don't buy dips in a downtrend. That's basic common sense.

 

Well it's certainly 'basic' - because if anyone possessed a crystal ball to know the difference between a downtrend and a blip then there wouldn't be a functioning (and in this case, highly volatile too) market for trading. 

It's called speculation for a reason. 

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

That bring said, it's clear thaf H_B wants them to fail

Revenge for Northern Rock. 

[Aufc]

 

Kinda my point. There doesn’t seem to be a middle ground between people like yourself and the other post you posted.

Although I find myself in the middle ground, I seem be rare.

[gaz5]

Well it's certainly 'basic' - because if anyone possessed a crystal ball to know the difference between a downtrend and a blip then there wouldn't be a functioning (and in this case, highly volatile too) market for trading. 
It's called speculation for a reason. 

You need to read up mate. I covered this.

It's not about "knowing" or "having a crystal ball" and if that's what you're looking for you'll fail from the start.

It's about looking at what is more likely. The higher probability.

In a downtrend, the higher probability is down, not up.

Is it certain? No, of course not. I'm not the one trying to sell certainty. I'm not the one claiming "this is a great time to buy bitcoin". I'm the one saying that there's no basis for *that* certainty because the probability is it keeps going down in a downtrend.

I said this at 31k. It's now 27k.

Let me put it to you this way:

If you are a BTC maxi and you think it's going to $100k plus, why do you need to buy every dip on the way down from 69k? Why not wait for the first higher high/higher low and buy there, in what at least looks like a reversal, instead of blindly throwing money at every "dip"?

The maths on that is pretty straightforward. You don't get the bottom, but your overall cost basis is much, much better. You pay a risk premium for not buying absolute lows, but that is more than covered in the saving you get from not buying, in this case now, 58k, 52k, 48k, 43k, 38k, 33k, 31k, 27k. etc. etc.

It's just maths. Nothing more.

Yes, I'm a TA guy, but that's only a tiny part of it. I'm only right (currently) about 56% of the time. But the maths means I only need to be right 33% to be profitable.

That maths doesn't work if you are blindly buying dips for no reason at all.

[KD1711]

I hope none of you went in on the UST staking. I know someone who sold their house for 150k to put into the staking and is now absolutely REKT.

[vikingTON]

17 hours ago, Aufc said:

Why can’t there be some middle ground on crypto. Yes it is higher risk. Yes it is volatile. As with most investments, there is always risks. I don’t understand why people who haven’t invested in crypto are so determined for it to fail. Bizarre behaviour

'Investing' in something with no tangible value is pure speculation, nothing more and nothing less. History will look back on it with the same bemused disdain as it does now for the tulip and South Sea bubbles. 

That's before you consider the enormous and utterly pointless energy costs of 'manufacturing' this utterly stupid market. 

If crypto could be safely isolated so that its gullible shills are the only ones left living in a cardboard box at the end then it would be a neutral enough exercise. Needless to say that the rest of society will inevitably end up entangled with and ultimately paying for this folly and enormous wealth transfer. 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, gaz5 said:

You need to read up mate. I covered this.

It's not about "knowing" or "having a crystal ball" and if that's what you're looking for you'll fail from the start.

It's about looking at what is more likely. The higher probability.

In a downtrend, the higher probability is down, not up.

Is it certain? No, of course not. I'm not the one trying to sell certainty. I'm not the one claiming "this is a great time to buy bitcoin". I'm the one saying that there's no basis for *that* certainty because the probability is it keeps going down in a downtrend.
 

A 'downtrend' has no clear definition that distinguishes it from an upward trend or a flat trend. This is as sophisticated a financial strategy as looking at a league table and form guide and lumping on dung teams to get beat. 

[DiegoDiego]

That's before you consider the enormous and utterly pointless energy costs of 'manufacturing' this utterly stupid market. 

The energy argument has been somewhat overblown and holds much less water than it did a few years ago since the bulk of it has moved from Chinese coal to US gas which otherwise would have been flared off.

[gaz5]

A 'downtrend' has no clear definition that distinguishes it from an upward trend or a flat trend. This is as sophisticated a financial strategy as looking at a league table and form guide and lumping on dung teams to get beat. 

Well, that's bollocks for starters.

There clearly defined definitions of ranging, uptrend and downtrend.

Dow Theory (my preferred interpretation) is one of those for clearly defined trend recognition and one that, if applied correctly, would have seen far better return than "buy the dip".

It's pretty much market analysis 101.

To claim there's no such thing as an uptrend or a downtrend because you personally don't know the difference is like claiming the earth is flat because that's what it looks like out your window. [emoji1787]

FWIW, everything I do is rules based. Conditions that repeat in the market and on specific assets that have been backtested over years of price history. This is kinda my wheelhouse.

[strichener]

6 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

 

The energy argument has been somewhat overblown and holds much less water than it did a few years ago since the bulk of it has moved from Chinese coal to US gas which otherwise would have been flared off.

That is just utter nonsense.  How do you divert gas that would be flared to generate electricity?  Flaring happens due to either excessive pressure being vented or the burning of waste gasses that cannot easily be transported or processed.

[Bairnardo]

Let me firstly apologise for diving in when you are all arguing, but just quickly, what the f**k is happening to QNT?

Thanks