Scotland's Oil

[Confidemus]

I have to laugh when I see stuff like this though:

"A potential North Sea style oil boom"

For a start, the North Sea area has one of the richest source rocks in the world. Almost all of the oil fields are sourced from this thick succession of organic rich Jurassic mudstone which has been buried down to >3km. Millions of years ago the North Sea area was a huge faulted hole in the ground later filled in by a top-notch sandy delta the size of today's Nile (the Brent reservoir) and when it all subsided, large sandy turbidity currents fell into the deep water providing more top-class reservoirs like the Forties. That's all overlain by ~1km of muds which keep everything down there

The Firth of Clyde of the other hand is a small, shallow isolated basin with a much thinner succession of crappy red sandstones which were possibly overlain by poorer quality shallow-water mudstones with far inferior organic content which biodegraded. Volcanic centres like Arran and Ailsa Craig have also punched through all this, reduced the reservoir quality through cementation and intruded numerous nasty volcanic bodies through the sands, cuting it all up. There's also very little rock to seal the oil in so if it's been generated then it's probably all leaked out.

Whatever sells papers though.

#geologyrocks

[joozy]

You are missing the point. The oil majors have been expending vast amounts of effort and money on an area which geographically alludes to the largest shale gas reserves in Europe and yet still they cannot make it viable from an economic standpoint. Given that land based drilling, infrastructure etc. is significantly cheaper than offshore the recoverable gas to make it viable would be significantly less than an offshore gas find. Yet this hasn't happened.

To me this proves two points:

1. Geology can be misleading.

2. Oil majors only drill where they think they can make money.

If there is any opportunity for oil/gas on the West Coast, then lets licence it and see what materialises. If costs very little to set up a licence program. The only problem we have is those pesky nukes.

It's you who has been continually missing the point. Firstly, Hedgecutter never said that fields on the west coast of mainland Scotland has a 10% CoS - he was referring to the west of the Shetlands.

Also, as he's already described in detail more than once, the chances of there being commercial oil their are de minimis. I'm not sure what the comparisons with the shale gas situation in Poland are meant to serve. Setting up a licence program for the West Coast would be entirely pointless. Doubt it will stop the lunatics trying to claim that it's some sort of Westminster conspiracy though.

[Hedgecutter]

You are missing the point. The oil majors have been expending vast amounts of effort and money on an area which geographically alludes to the largest shale gas reserves in Europe and yet still they cannot make it viable from an economic standpoint. Given that land based drilling, infrastructure etc. is significantly cheaper than offshore the recoverable gas to make it viable would be significantly less than an offshore gas find. Yet this hasn't happened.

To me this proves two points:

1. Geology can be misleading.

2. Oil majors only drill where they think they can make money.

If there is any opportunity for oil/gas on the West Coast, then lets licence it and see what materialises. If costs very little to set up a licence program. The only problem we have is those pesky nukes.

I'm a bit confused where this jump to shale gas has come from, sorry.

Conventional oil/gas production and shale gas are two very different beasts, the latter essentially being a simple "let's find an organic rich shale and crack it where it occurs and folk will complain about it the least". The former involves a horribly complex system requiring lots of things happening at the same place in a particular order.

For what may be a side interest, our own Dept Energy (DECC) has recently given the British Geological Survey a project to create a detailed report for the shale gas prospectivity of our Midland Valley which they seem to be taking rather seriously. Coal Bed Methane is also another target, something already being produced at Airth (by the Kincardine Bridge).

[strichener]

It's you who has been continually missing the point. Firstly, Hedgecutter never said that fields on the west coast of mainland Scotland has a 10% CoS - he was referring to the west of the Shetlands.

Also, as he's already described in detail more than once, the chances of there being commercial oil their are de minimis. I'm not sure what the comparisons with the shale gas situation in Poland are meant to serve. Setting up a licence program for the West Coast would be entirely pointless. Doubt it will stop the lunatics trying to claim that it's some sort of Westminster conspiracy though.

Aye OK mate. If you are going to try and make a c**t of someone, I would suggest it isn't yourself.

1 in 10 is the general factor for the North Sea btw, not West of Scotland which is likely to be less seeing as it's an unproven basin.

So he isn't asserting this for the West of Shetland.

The point about shale is that the geologists have ascribed massive resources to Poland and yet even with the vastly reduced capex requirements they have not managed to find commercial quantities.

[MassiveFanDan]

Question for Hedgecutter - what would you say is the likelihood of ever getting anything out of the Rockall Trough? I know there are competing claims over Rockall, but if it were to fall within Scotland's EEZ, would anything be recoverable from that area?

It's rough seas, and deep. Obviously, I'm no expert on the logistics of oil and gas extraction.

Asking 'cos of this: http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/jan/01/oil-un-british-claims-rockall

.

[strichener]

I'm a bit confused where this jump to shale gas has come from, sorry.

Conventional oil/gas production and shale gas are two very different beasts, the latter essentially being a simple "let's find an organic rich shale and crack it where it occurs and folk will complain about it the least". The former involves a horribly complex system requiring lots of things happening at the same place in a particular order.

For what may be a side interest, our own Dept Energy (DECC) has recently given the British Geological Survey a project to create a detailed report for the shale gas prospectivity of our Midland Valley which they seem to be taking rather seriously. Coal Bed Methane is also another target, something already being produced at Airth (by the Kincardine Bridge).

The BGS have already produced a report on the Bowland Shale formation. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/bowland-shale-gas-study

[Hedgecutter]

Question for Hedgecutter - what would you say is the likelihood of ever getting anything out of the Rockall Trough? I know there are competing claims over Rockall, but if it were to fall within Scotland's EEZ, would anything be recoverable from that area?

It's rough seas, and deep. Obviously, I'm no expert on the logistics of oil and gas extraction.

Asking 'cos of this: http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/jan/01/oil-un-british-claims-rockall

.

Neither am I tbh with regards to deep water facilities, but there are certainly (limited) sections where 'all the ingredients' are in place for oil generation and potential entrapment.

The basin out there (which has previously been lots of things from dry continent with rivers to deep marine trough) is much more extensive, the sedimentary sequence is thicker / much better developed and the source rocks which are thought to be decent will have been sufficiently buried to the depths required to produce oil. If it was shallow water then I'd imagine that it would have been drilled to f*** by now IMHO. There's still that issue though with all the pesky volcanic seamounts messing everything up though.

That said, the oil price is still high but nobody's gone for it yet... so that must say something? Too high risk in almost every sense of the industry for the moment I guess.

[Hedgecutter]

So he isn't asserting this for the West of Shetland.

On the flip side, Chevron recently drilled for a WoS oil field and found an extra two entirely by accident. I can only imagine the 'Pleasing' gifs being sent around the email system that week.

Technical link which may be interesting

[joozy]

Aye OK mate. If you are going to try and make a c**t of someone, I would suggest it isn't yourself.

So he isn't asserting this for the West of Shetland.

The point about shale is that the geologists have ascribed massive resources to Poland and yet even with the vastly reduced capex requirements they have not managed to find commercial quantities.

Aye, fair enough I made a balls-up of that bit, so i'll hold my hands up to that. No more than you originally did though.

Mind you, your point is still totally superfluous. There is no west coast (of Scotland) oil bonanza waiting if only we could get rid of those nasty Westminster politicians with their nuclear missiles.

[Confidemus]

There is no west coast (of Scotland) oil bonanza waiting if only we could get rid of those nasty Westminster politicians with their nuclear missiles.

In your opinion.

There may well be (pardon the pun). We'll certainly find out after trident gets to f**k.

[Hedgecutter]

The point about shale is that the geologists have ascribed massive resources to Poland and yet even with the vastly reduced capex requirements they have not managed to find commercial quantities.

Ah, I think I see where you're trying to go with this. When you're talking about 'quantities', there's a difference between conventional gas and shale gas.

Shale gas is stuff trapped inside the shale as it's going nowhere, hence why it needs fracked. It's relatively easy to estimate how much shale is around because you can map it by onshore outcrop, by cheap on-land seismic etc. The problem comes not from a balls up of the mapping as such but by the cost of the extraction process. Lots of energy (i.e. cost) is required for relatively little gain.

With conventional you've had gas generated at numerous other places which have migrated away and become trapped in large quantities at a specific place. All you have to do is drill a few holes and watch it come fizzing out. Gas is also good in that it expands when it gets to surface - a double garage full of gas would fit into a wheelie bin at reservoir conditions. Oil on the other hand shrinks when it comes to surface (fun fact).

In your opinion.

There may well be (pardon the pun). We'll certainly find out after trident gets to f**k.

Even if lack of Trident allows them to search if they wanted, I doubt many companies would waste their time knowing what we do now (all at BP's expense) TBH.

You probably have no idea how much time / work goes into the bids which are eventually submitted to the government for the licensing rounds. It's sadly not a case of "nobody else wants this block, can we just drill one *here* please?"

[joozy]

In your opinion.

There may well be (pardon the pun). We'll certainly find out after trident gets to f**k.

Sure, and it might turn out that there is a rich seam of pure gold running underneath Cliftonhill making Albion Rovers the richest club in the world.

Some lunatic Nats are trying to claim that a west coast oil boom has been suppressed. As Hedgecutter has already detailed pretty comprehensively, it is massively, massively unlikely there is anything of the sort. Oil companies just don't drill in random places hoping to strike it lucky.

[strichener]

Sure, and it might turn out that there is a rich seam of pure gold running underneath Cliftonhill making Albion Rovers the richest club in the world.

Some lunatic Nats are trying to claim that a west coast oil boom has been suppressed. As Hedgecutter has already detailed pretty comprehensively, it is massively, massively unlikely there is anything of the sort. Oil companies just don't drill in random places hoping to strike it lucky.

Sorry, You will probably find that Albion Rovers will not own the mineral rights.

[Confidemus]

Sure, and it might turn out that there is a rich seam of pure gold running underneath Cliftonhill making Albion Rovers the richest club in the world.

Some lunatic Nats are trying to claim that a west coast oil boom has been suppressed. As Hedgecutter has already detailed pretty comprehensively, it is massively, massively unlikely there is anything of the sort. Oil companies just don't drill in random places hoping to strike it lucky.

And aren't you just rubbing your hands with glee at the prospect of there not being any oil.

Like I've said before and will say again, no one can say for definite until Trident gets gone and the "poking aboot" can start. You'll forgive my use of technical jargon.

[Hedgecutter]

Sure, and it might turn out that there is a rich seam of pure gold running underneath Cliftonhill making Albion Rovers the richest club in the world.

I went to an Albion Rovers game in March once and the whole of Coatbridge High Street was filled with people dressed as leprechauns. Makes sense now.

[joozy]

Sorry, You will probably find that Albion Rovers will not own the mineral rights.

Which, funnily enough (bringing things round full circle), is just one of the reasons why shale gas won't have the same impact in Europe as the US - the structure of mineral rights ownership.

[joozy]

And aren't you just rubbing your hands with glee at the prospect of there not being any oil.

Like I've said before and will say again, no one can say for definite until Trident gets gone and the "poking aboot" can start. You'll forgive my use of technical jargon.

Not really, anything that enriches Scotland and the UK is good news in my opinion. But it's a non-issue, there isn't going to be any west coast oil boom. Those trying to claim otherwise are being deliberately misleading.

[Confidemus]

Not really, anything that enriches Scotland and the UK is good news in my opinion. But it's a non-issue, there isn't going to be any west coast oil boom. Those trying to claim otherwise are being deliberately misleading.

Unless you're an oligarch or an have undertaken surveys for one of the oil companies, you cannot possibly know this.

Sure, you can give it your best guess, or you can listen to what people in the industry say, but, until further exploration happens, the basic truth is no one knows whats off the west coast.

[H_B]

but, until further exploration happens, the basic truth is no one knows whats off the west coast.

Or whether Coatbridge is a gold mine. If only we knew.

[doulikefish]

Shale oil and reynard isnt here

Not bad summary hedgecutter apart from the cost of running is a bit high for the north sea and i see somenone else mentioned an oil company trying to get a license,but i will add there are certain companies desperate to be allowed to actually see whats on the west coast